The Enduring Conflict: Afghanistan's Long Struggle With Civil War

Afghanistan has a long history of civil war and strife among internally warring factions. The land that is now Afghanistan has been conquered by many foreign powers, including Alexander the Great of Macedonia in 329 BC, Genghis Khan in the 13th century, and the British Empire in the 19th century.

The country was united as a single country in the 1700s, and by 1870, Islam had taken root. Afghanistan became an independent nation after defeating the British in the Third Anglo-Afghan War (1919-21). However, the country has been in a near-continuous state of armed conflict since the 1970s.

The Saur Revolution in 1978 violently overthrew the government of President Mohammad Daoud Khan and established the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan. This led to unprecedented violence and prompted a large-scale pro-PDPA military intervention by the Soviet Union in 1979, marking the beginning of the Soviet-Afghan War. The anti-Soviet Afghan mujahideen received extensive support from Pakistan, the United States, and Saudi Arabia.

Although the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989, the various mujahideen factions continued to fight against the PDPA government, leading to the collapse of the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan in 1992. This triggered a multi-sided civil war between the mujahideen factions, with the Taliban, supported by Pakistan, seizing control of Kabul and most of the country by 1996.

The Taliban imposed a strict interpretation of Islamic law, leading to widespread human rights abuses. The United Front (also known as the Northern Alliance) was formed in opposition to the Taliban and controlled roughly 30% of Afghanistan's population. The Taliban was eventually ousted from power by US-led forces in 2001 following the September 11 attacks, but the country continued to experience civil unrest and Taliban insurgency.

The War in Afghanistan (2001-2021) was the direct response to the September 11 attacks and resulted in the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. However, the conflict in Afghanistan continued, with the Taliban launching a broad offensive in 2021 and re-establishing their control over the country.

The Soviet-Afghan War (1979-1989)

The Soviet-Afghan War was a conflict between Afghan mujahideen rebels and the Soviet Armed Forces and the Soviet puppet Democratic Republic of Afghanistan regime. It lasted from 1979 to 1989 and was part of a larger conflict in Afghanistan that started in 1978.

The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in December 1979, sending in around 30,000 troops and overthrowing the short-lived presidency of Hafizullah Amin. The Soviets aimed to prop up their new but faltering client state, now headed by Babrak Karmal, but the mujahideen rebellion grew in response, spreading to all parts of the country. The Soviets initially left the suppression of the rebellion to the Afghan army, but the latter was beset by mass desertions and remained largely ineffective throughout the war.

The mujahideen were backed by the United States, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, who provided arms and other war matériel. The mujahideen were fragmented politically into a handful of independent groups, and their military efforts remained uncoordinated throughout the war. The quality of their arms and combat organisation gradually improved, however, due to experience and the large quantity of arms they received. In addition, an indeterminate number of Muslim volunteers travelled from all parts of the world to join the opposition.

The war in Afghanistan became a quagmire for the Soviet Union. The Soviets suffered around 15,000 dead and many more injured. Despite having failed to implement a sympathetic regime in Afghanistan, in 1988 the Soviet Union signed an accord with the United States, Pakistan, and Afghanistan and agreed to withdraw its troops. The Soviet withdrawal was completed on 15 February 1989, and Afghanistan returned to non-aligned status.

The Afghan Civil War (1989-1992)

The Afghan Civil War of 1989-1992, also known as the First Afghan Civil War, took place between the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan and the end of the Soviet-Afghan War on 15 February 1989, until 27 April 1992.

The Soviet Union had been supporting Afghanistan militarily and economically since 1919, and in 1979, they intervened in Afghanistan, killing the new President Hafizullah Amin and installing Babrak Karmal as president. The Soviets managed to take control of major cities and strategic installations, but this only served to increase nationalist feelings among rebels, who drew Soviet troops into war with urban uprisings and tribal armies. The Soviets destroyed villages, laid millions of mines, and killed between 1/2 and 2 million Afghans, with millions more displaced.

In 1985, seven larger Sunni Islamic rebel groups coordinated their fight against the Soviets, who were also known as the Pakistani-backed Peshawar 7 Mujahideen Alliance. After the Soviets left Afghanistan in February 1989, some smaller groups put down their arms or joined the government, but the larger mujahideen groups continued their fight against the government of President Mohammad Najibullah, who was still supported by the Soviet Union.

In March 1989, the "Afghan Interim Government" in cooperation with the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) attacked the city of Jalalabad but were defeated by June in the Battle of Jalalabad. This battle proved that the Afghan Army could fight without Soviet help and greatly increased the confidence of government supporters.

In March 1991, a mujahideen coalition quickly conquered the city of Khost. In March 1992, having lost the last remnants of Soviet support, President Najibullah agreed to step aside and make way for a mujahideen coalition government. One mujahideen group, Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin, refused to join a coalition government and invaded Kabul with the help of Khalqist Generals, triggering a civil war between initially three, and then five or six mujahideen groups or armies.

The civil war led to the collapse of Najibullah's government in April 1992. A transitional government, sponsored by various rebel factions, proclaimed an Islamic republic, but this was short-lived as President Burhanuddin Rabbani, leader of the Islamic Society (a major mujahideen group), refused to leave office in accordance with the power-sharing arrangement. Other mujahideen groups, particularly the Islamic Party, led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, surrounded Kabul and began to barrage the city with artillery and rockets. These attacks continued intermittently over the next several years as the countryside outside Kabul slipped into chaos.

The civil war ended in April 1992 with the Peshawar Accords, which established a leadership council assuring residual powers for the party leaders under an interim President Sibghatullah Mojaddedi, serving from 28 April to 28 June 1992. This was followed by another phase of the civil war, which lasted from 1992-1996.

The War in Afghanistan (2001-2021)

The War

The war began when the Taliban-ruled Islamic Emirate refused to extradite al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden to the United States. The US-led coalition forces then invaded Afghanistan, supporting the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, and expelled the Taliban and its allies from major population centres. The conflict resulted in the toppling of the Taliban-ruled Islamic Emirate and the establishment of the Islamic Republic three years later. However, Osama bin Laden relocated to neighbouring Pakistan, and the Taliban regrouped under their founder, Mullah Omar, beginning a widespread insurgency against the new Afghan government and coalition forces.

The war resulted in heavy casualties, with an estimated 176,000–212,000+ deaths, including 46,319 civilians. The war also caused mass displacement, with 2.6 million Afghans as refugees and another 4 million internally displaced by the time the Taliban returned to power in 2021.

The Post-War Situation

The US-led coalition forces remained in Afghanistan after the expulsion of the Taliban and formed a security mission (ISAF), sanctioned by the United Nations, to create a new democratic authority and prevent the Taliban from regaining power. An Afghan Interim Administration was established, and international rebuilding efforts were initiated. However, the Taliban reorganised and began a widespread insurgency, with insurgents from the Taliban and other Islamist groups using guerrilla warfare, suicide attacks, and reprisals against perceived Afghan collaborators.

The coalition forces responded with counter-insurgency operations, but despite their efforts, the Taliban retook large parts of Afghanistan by 2007. The coalition sent additional troops for counter-insurgency operations, and by 2011, there were roughly 140,000 foreign troops operating under ISAF command across Afghanistan.

In May 2011, Osama bin Laden was killed in a US covert operation in Pakistan, leading NATO leaders to plan an exit strategy from Afghanistan. In December 2014, NATO formally ended ISAF combat operations and transferred security responsibility to the Afghan government. However, the Taliban remained a potent force, and coalition forces, as well as the Afghan government, turned to diplomacy to end the conflict.

These efforts culminated in the US-Taliban deal in February 2020, which stipulated the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan by 2021 in exchange for the Taliban's pledge to prevent militant groups from using Afghan territory to stage attacks. However, the Afghan government rejected the deal's terms, and as US and NATO troops withdrew, the Taliban launched a broad offensive, successfully reestablishing control over Afghanistan, including Kabul, in August 2021. The last US military aircraft departed from Afghanistan on August 30, 2021, marking the end of the protracted US-led military presence in the country.

The Saur Revolution (1978)

The Saur Revolution, also known as the April Revolution or the April Coup, took place on the 27th and 28th of April 1978. It was a communist insurrection against the Republic of Afghanistan government, staged by the People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA). The uprising overthrew Afghan President Mohammed Daoud Khan, who had himself taken power in a coup five years earlier, and established an autocratic one-party system in the country.

The PDPA's uprising resulted in the creation of a socialist Afghan government closely aligned with the Soviet Union. The PDPA's rule was marked by a series of radical reforms, including the nationalisation of industry, the abolition of debts owed by peasants to rich farmers and landlords, marriage reforms, and the introduction of land distribution and collective farming. The PDPA also advocated for equal rights for women, declaring that women should have equal access to education, job security, and health services.

The Saur Revolution was ordered by PDPA member Hafizullah Amin, who later became a significant figure in the revolutionary Afghan government. Amin claimed that the event was not a coup d'état, but rather a "popular revolution" carried out by the "will of the people" against Daoud's government. The revolution involved heavy fighting throughout Afghanistan and resulted in the deaths of around 2,000 military personnel and civilians. It marked the beginning of decades of continuous conflict in the country.

The PDPA's rule was unpopular in rural areas of Afghanistan, where most of their worker support was based. The government brutally suppressed all opposition, and there was severe discontent among the people, which manifested in several uprisings over the next two years. This political instability prompted the Soviet Union to intervene, leading to the Soviet-Afghan War.

The Islamic State-Taliban Conflict (2015-present)

The Islamic State-Taliban Conflict refers to the ongoing armed conflict between the Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP) and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. The conflict began in 2015 following the creation of a regional branch of the Islamic State 'caliphate' and started to clash against Taliban insurgents over control of territory during the war in Afghanistan (2001-2021), mostly in eastern Afghanistan but also through cells in the northwest and southwest.

The conflict escalated when militants affiliated with IS-KP killed Abdul Ghani, a senior Taliban commander in Logar province, on 2 February 2015. The emergence of IS-K provided militant Afghan Salafists with an opportunity to set up a rival force, although Salafist support for the group waned as it proved ideologically "too extreme and brutal" for most Afghan Salafis.

The IS-K mostly consisted of eastern Afghans, Pakistanis, and foreign fighters from Central Asia. The group is known to receive support from the Islamic State's central command in the form of money and combat trainers from Iraq and Syria.

The Taliban have been moving to contain or purge potential opponents, including Islamic State supporters and Salafists. The IS-K has continued its armed campaign against the new Taliban regime, targeting Taliban members using hit-and-run tactics.

The Islamic State in Afghanistan (IS-A) has always viewed the Afghan Taliban as its ideological enemy, smearing the Taliban’s political project in Afghanistan and some of its governing practices as heretical. The IS-A has updated its propaganda to defame the Taliban as collaborators of the United States. The continued rivalry between these two groups is firmly rooted in their incompatible agendas and goals, and serves to create space for the IS-A in an otherwise saturated militant landscape.

The IS-A has embraced the same method of insurgency as its namesake in Iraq and Syria, geared towards anti-state competition. This includes infiltrating governing institutions, recruiting and politicking behind the scenes to form alliances, assassinating moderate voices of opposition within targeted recruitment populations, and launching attacks against both minority communities and state targets.

The question now is whether the Taliban will be able to engage in protracted counter-terrorism efforts while governing the country. The IS-A can focus the vast majority of its operational resources squarely on the Taliban instead of splitting those resources to resist multiple actors.

Frequently asked questions