Russia's Nuclear Weapon Move: Belarus In Danger?

In June 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia intended to transfer Iskander-M missiles, which can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads, to Belarus. Putin also proposed upgrading Belarusian Su-25 jets so they could carry nuclear weapons. This potential deployment of nuclear weapons has raised concerns about a possible shift in Europe's nuclear balance and an increased risk of conflict with NATO. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has expressed worries about NATO's presence near Belarus' borders and has requested assistance from Russia to retrofit their jets to carry nuclear weapons. This development comes amid tensions between Russia and the West over the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has significant implications for European security and the global nuclear arms rivalry.

Russia plans to transfer Iskander-M missiles to Belarus

On June 25, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia intends to transfer Iskander-M missiles to Belarus in the coming months. This announcement was made during a meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. The Iskander-M is a short-range ballistic missile system with a range of up to 500km (310 miles) and can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads. Putin also proposed upgrading Belarusian Su-25 jets to be capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

The transfer of these missiles to Belarus has significant implications for the region's security and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, has escalated tensions between Russia and the West, and Putin's references to nuclear weapons have been interpreted as warnings against Western intervention in the conflict. The presence of Iskander-M missiles in Belarus, which borders Ukraine, raises concerns about their potential use in the war.

The Iskander-M missile system has been heavily used against Ukraine and was previously deployed to Belarus during the buildup to the invasion. The transfer of these missiles to Belarus indicates a deepening military collaboration between the two countries. Belarus has provided logistical support to Russia in the war and allowed Russian forces to use its territory for the invasion. However, Belarus's direct involvement in the conflict has been limited, and its army is not officially participating.

The details of the transfer agreement between Russia and Belarus are mostly unknown to the public. It is not clear how command and control over the missiles and their potential nuclear warheads will be managed. There are concerns that 'Belarusian' missiles could be Russian units aimed at NATO borders with Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and other neighbouring countries.

The deployment of Iskander-M missiles to Belarus has important implications for Europe's nuclear balance. It raises questions about the potential violation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and further destabilizes the Cold War arms control architecture. NATO is faced with challenging decisions on how to respond to this development, especially if the missiles are deployed.

These missiles can carry nuclear warheads

In June 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would be transferring Iskander-M missiles to Belarus. These missiles can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads. Putin also proposed upgrading Belarusian Su-25 fighter jets so that they too could carry nuclear weapons. This announcement has raised concerns about a potential shift in Europe's nuclear balance and an increased risk of conflict with NATO.

The Iskander-M missile system is a mobile guided missile platform with a range of up to 500 km (300 miles). It can be equipped with either ballistic or cruise missiles, both of which are capable of delivering nuclear warheads. This system was on display during military drills conducted by Russia and Belarus, where they showcased their tactical nuclear weapons capabilities. These drills were seen as a response to the potential deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine and the provision of longer-range weapons to Kyiv by Western nations.

The decision to transfer these weapons to Belarus was justified by Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko as a response to the security environment created by NATO countries. They specifically cited concerns about Lithuania's enforcement of EU sanctions, blocking rail access to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, and training flights by the U.S. and NATO airplanes, which practice carrying nuclear warheads and nuclear weapons. Lukashenko requested assistance from Putin in retrofitting Belarusian jets to carry nuclear weapons, expressing his desire to be ready for anything, including the use of the most serious weapons.

The potential deployment of nuclear-capable missiles and aircraft in Belarus has significant implications for the nuclear balance in Europe. It raises questions about who will retain operational control of these weapons and whether it adheres to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). If Russia maintains control in peacetime while training Belarusian personnel for potential wartime use, it could mirror NATO's nuclear sharing policy, which has also faced criticism for potentially violating the NPT.

The response from NATO to Russia's announcement will depend on the specifics of the deployment. However, the presence of Iskander missiles in Belarus would complicate NATO defense planning as these missiles were designed to evade missile defenses. It could lead to a further escalation, with NATO expanding its conventional presence in Eastern Europe or even revoking the "three no's" of the NATO-Russia Founding Act, bringing nuclear weapons closer to Russian borders.

Putin's promise may be nuclear bluster

Putin's Promise: Nuclear Bluster or Not?

On June 25, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that Russia intends to transfer Iskander-M missiles to Belarus and upgrade Belarusian Su-25 fighters to carry nuclear weapons. Putin's promise has raised questions about whether it is nuclear bluster or a credible threat. While the details of the deal remain unknown, there are concerns that if Putin's promise is more than just bluster, it could reshape Europe's nuclear balance and heighten the risk of a NATO-Russia conflict.

Nuclear Threats as a Strategic Deterrent

The use of nuclear threats as a strategic deterrent has been a common tactic employed by the Russian government under Putin. Since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin has repeatedly hinted at and threatened to use Russia's nuclear arsenal, which is the largest in the world. However, he has not acted on these threats, and experts characterize them as bluster intended to send a signal to NATO and the West. Putin's nuclear threats aim to discourage Western intervention in Ukraine and signal Russia's commitment to the war.

The Impact of Putin's Promise

If Putin's promise to transfer nuclear-capable weapons to Belarus is more than bluster, it could have significant implications for Europe's nuclear balance. Belarus's proximity to NATO members means that the deployment of nuclear weapons there would complicate NATO defense planning and increase the potential for nuclear escalation. It is unclear who would retain operational control of the nuclear weapons, but if Belarus were to gain full operational control, it would be a flagrant violation of the NPT and a significant deterioration of Cold War arms control agreements.

NATO's Response

NATO has a range of potential responses to Russia's announcement, depending on how the new systems are deployed. If the missiles are not deployed, NATO is unlikely to change its nuclear policy. However, if the missiles are deployed, NATO could expand its conventional presence in Eastern Europe or even consider revoking the "three no's" of the NATO-Russia Founding Act, which could lead to the deployment of nuclear-capable systems to former Warsaw Pact members. Such a move would place NATO and Russian nuclear weapons in closer proximity and increase the potential for nuclear escalation.

While Putin's promise to transfer nuclear-capable weapons to Belarus is concerning, it is challenging to determine if it is nuclear bluster or a credible threat. Experts believe it is likely bluster, given Putin's history of nuclear sabre-rattling without following through. However, the potential impact on Europe's nuclear balance and the risk of escalation mean that NATO must carefully consider its response, especially if the missiles are deployed.

The move could remake the nuclear balance in Europe

The prospect of Russia moving nuclear weapons to Belarus has raised concerns about a potential shift in Europe's nuclear balance. This move would have significant implications for European security and could escalate tensions between Russia and NATO.

Russia's decision to transfer Iskander-M missiles and offer to upgrade Belarusian Su-25 fighters to carry nuclear warheads marks a critical development. The Iskander-M missile system is a dual-capable platform that can employ both conventional and nuclear payloads. This versatility provides Russia with a strategic advantage and the ability to project power in the region.

The deployment of these weapons in Belarus would be a significant development, as it would be the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union that Russia has stationed nuclear weapons outside its borders. This move would bring Russia's nuclear arsenal closer to NATO's borders and could be perceived as a direct threat to neighbouring countries, particularly those in Eastern Europe.

The potential impact on the nuclear balance in Europe is profound. Russia's actions could trigger a renewed arms race and a return to the destabilising nuclear rivalry of the Cold War era. It may also prompt NATO to reconsider its nuclear posture and potentially lead to the deployment of additional nuclear-capable systems to its eastern flank.

Furthermore, the presence of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus could increase the risk of a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO. Should tensions escalate, the proximity of nuclear arsenals on both sides could lower the threshold for their use and heighten the danger of a broader nuclear exchange.

The move by Russia to station nuclear weapons in Belarus is a significant development that challenges the existing nuclear balance in Europe. It has far-reaching implications for regional security and stability, potentially reshaping the strategic landscape of the continent.

Lukashenko has expressed concern about NATO's nuclear-armed flights near Belarus' borders

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has expressed concern about NATO's nuclear-armed flights near Belarus's borders. In a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Lukashenko highlighted his worries related to the security environment created by NATO countries. He specifically mentioned training flights by the US and NATO, which practice carrying nuclear weapons. As a result, he requested help from Putin to retrofit Belarusian jets to carry nuclear weapons.

Lukashenko characterised Lithuania and Poland as pursuing a "confrontational policy" and expressed concern about the potential deployment of NATO troops in these countries. He alleged, without providing evidence, that the Belarus opposition planned to seize a district in the west of the country and request support from NATO troops. This assertion was dismissed by the opposition as baseless.

Lukashenko's concerns about NATO's nuclear capabilities and his request for assistance from Russia reflect his desire to enhance Belarus's nuclear deterrence capabilities. He justified this decision by citing perceived threats to Belarus's security, including the risk of military incidents along its border with Ukraine. However, it's important to note that Lukashenko's statements have been met with scepticism by the Belarusian opposition and some international observers, who see them as a means to consolidate power and create a sense of an external enemy.

The deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus has raised strong concerns in neighbouring Poland and other countries in the region. Lukashenko has stated that hosting these weapons is meant to deter aggression by Poland, a NATO member that actively supports Ukraine against Russia's invasion. The presence of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus adds a complex dimension to the geopolitical tensions in the region and has potential implications for Europe's nuclear balance.

While Lukashenko has emphasised the defensive nature of Belarus's nuclear posture, the potential implications for regional stability and the risk of escalation remain significant areas of concern. The question of who retains operational control over any nuclear-armed systems once deployed is crucial, with potential implications for the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). As tensions continue to rise, the situation in Europe becomes increasingly precarious, demanding careful consideration and strategic responses from all parties involved.

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