Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflict: Why Azerbaijan Attacks

Azerbaijan and Armenia have been engaged in a decades-long conflict over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but has a majority ethnic Armenian population. The conflict has resulted in multiple wars and skirmishes since the collapse of the Soviet Union, with the most recent major escalation occurring in 2020, resulting in an Azerbaijani victory. The conflict has also drawn in regional powers such as Russia and Turkey, with Russia acting as a mediator and Turkey providing military support to Azerbaijan. The conflict has also led to a refugee crisis, with hundreds of thousands of people displaced and concerns about potential ethnic cleansing. The complex dynamics of the conflict, including ethnic, religious, and geopolitical factors, have made it difficult to resolve, and the ongoing tensions continue to pose a threat to regional stability.

Azerbaijan wants to disarm Armenian forces in the region

Azerbaijan's attacks on Armenia can be attributed to the decades-long conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but has been predominantly populated by ethnic Armenians. The conflict has resulted in two wars and several violent clashes since the late 1980s.

In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched an "anti-terrorist" offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, stating that its objective was to restore the "constitutional order" of Azerbaijan and neutralise Armenian military installations. This offensive resulted in the deaths of at least 200 people and forced the displacement of tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians, who fled to Armenia.

Azerbaijan's stated intention was to disarm and secure the withdrawal of formations of Armenia's armed forces from Nagorno-Karabakh and to neutralise their military infrastructure. The country's president, Ilham Aliyev, also referred to the presence of Armenian forces in the region as a "structure which, on a daily basis, challenges the security and sovereignty of Azerbaijan".

Following the September 2023 offensive, Russia-mediated negotiations began between Azerbaijan and Armenia regarding the disarmament of Armenian separatists and the reintegration of Nagorno-Karabakh into Azerbaijan. The status of around 100,000 ethnic Armenians living in the disputed territory was at stake, and Armenian officials demanded security guarantees for those who remained before agreeing to give up their weapons.

Azerbaijan's desire to disarm Armenian forces in the region stems from its aim to reassert control over Nagorno-Karabakh, ensure the region's integration into Azerbaijan, and prevent further challenges to its security and sovereignty from Armenian military installations.

The conflict has deep roots in ethnic tensions and competing territorial claims, with a history of violence and geopolitical rivalry between the two former Soviet republics. The international community, including the European Union, France, Germany, and the United States, has repeatedly called for a peaceful resolution to the conflict and urged both sides to respect the ceasefire agreements.

Azerbaijan wants to dissolve Nagorno-Karabakh as a political entity

Azerbaijan's attacks on Armenia can be understood in the context of the decades-long conflict between the two countries over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but has been inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians. Here is an overview of the key points regarding Azerbaijan's goal of dissolving Nagorno-Karabakh as a political entity:

Historical Context

• The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has deep historical roots, dating back to the Soviet period when Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast faced heavy discrimination from Soviet Azerbaijani authorities.
• During the glasnost period, a 1988 referendum in Nagorno-Karabakh sought to transfer the region to Soviet Armenia, citing self-determination laws. This sparked a series of pogroms against Armenians across Azerbaijan, leading to violence committed by both sides.
• The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, resulting in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people and the establishment of a ceasefire in 1994, which lasted until 2020.

Recent Escalation

• In late 2020, the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in a significant Azerbaijani victory, with Azerbaijan regaining control of the surrounding territories and a third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself.
• Despite the 2020 ceasefire, violations and border clashes continued, with Azerbaijan blockading Nagorno-Karabakh in December 2022 and launching a large-scale military offensive in September 2023.
• The offensive resulted in a new ceasefire agreement and the official dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh (the breakaway state in Nagorno-Karabakh) on January 1, 2024.
• Most ethnic Armenians fled the region, with over 100,000 people seeking refuge in Armenia.

Azerbaijan's Goals

• Azerbaijan's attacks on Armenia are part of a broader strategy to dissolve Nagorno-Karabakh as a political entity and "reintegrate" the region into Azerbaijan.
• This includes the disbandment of the Artsakh government and the denial of any special status or autonomy to ethnic Armenian residents, instead insisting on their "integration" as "normal citizens".
• Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, has threatened military action and stated that the special status for Armenians has failed and will not be offered again.
• The dissolution of Nagorno-Karabakh as a political entity is also linked to Azerbaijan's expansionist claims over Armenian territory, which it refers to as "Western Azerbaijan".
• This includes irredentist claims over Armenia's capital, Yerevan, and other provinces, which have been condemned by international organisations such as the European Parliament.

International Response

• The conflict has drawn international attention and condemnation, with calls for a peaceful resolution and respect for territorial integrity from various organisations, including the United Nations, the European Union, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).
• Russia has played a mediating role and deployed peacekeepers to the region, but its effectiveness has been questioned due to its own interests in the region and competing alliances with Armenia and Azerbaijan.
• Other countries, such as the United States, France, and Turkey, have also been involved in diplomatic efforts and ceasefire negotiations.

In summary, Azerbaijan's attacks on Armenia are driven by its goal of dissolving Nagorno-Karabakh as a political entity and asserting control over the region, which has been a source of tension and conflict between the two countries for decades.

Azerbaijan wants to prevent Yerevan from playing a role in the region

Azerbaijan's attacks on Armenia can be understood in the context of the country's desire to prevent Yerevan from playing a significant role in the region. This motivation is deeply rooted in the ongoing conflict between the two nations, primarily over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Here are four to six paragraphs elaborating on this issue:

The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is largely centred around the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which has been a source of tension and conflict since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but has a significant ethnic Armenian population, with most of the region's inhabitants being Armenian until 2023. The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s, resulting in a victory for Armenia and the establishment of the Republic of Artsakh, which included Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts. This led to a situation where ethnic Azerbaijanis were expelled from Armenia and ethnic Armenians from Azerbaijan, resulting in a complex ethnic and territorial conflict.

Azerbaijan has long-standing grievances over the loss of control over Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding areas. The country gradually re-established its control over the region, with a significant victory in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, which resulted in Azerbaijan regaining control over a significant portion of the occupied territories. However, even after this victory, Azerbaijan has continued to push for further concessions and to prevent Yerevan from gaining any leverage in the region.

One of the key strategies employed by Azerbaijan is the introduction of quasi-territorial demands against Armenia. For example, Azerbaijan has recently demanded that the rights of Azerbaijanis who used to live in Armenia be treated equally with the rights of Armenians living in Karabakh. This demand was introduced as a condition in the ongoing negotiations for a potential peace agreement. By doing so, Azerbaijan seeks to weaken Yerevan's position and prevent it from making demands for a special status for the Armenians living in Azerbaijan. This pattern of behaviour has been observed by analysts, who note that Azerbaijan tends to manufacture territorial demands to gain an advantage in negotiations.

Azerbaijan's actions are also driven by a desire to consolidate its control over the region and prevent any international interference. Baku insists that the status of the Karabakh Armenians should be an internal matter between Baku and Stepanakert, without the involvement of external parties. This stance is in direct opposition to Yerevan's demands for an international presence in the territory to guarantee the security of the Armenian population. Azerbaijan's insistence on handling the matter internally is likely motivated by its desire to exert unilateral control and prevent Yerevan from having any influence over the region.

Furthermore, Azerbaijan has been accused of employing a "coercive bargaining strategy" to extract concessions from Armenia on various issues. This includes demands for minefield maps and the Syunik corridor. By pushing for these concessions, Azerbaijan seeks to limit Yerevan's ability to negotiate and assert its own influence in the region. Additionally, the lack of formally demarcated borders between the two countries has allowed Azerbaijan to make expansionist claims and gradually gain more territory. This "borderization" tactic has been observed by analysts, who argue that it pressures Russia and tests the effectiveness of collective security guarantees.

In conclusion, Azerbaijan's attacks on Armenia are driven by a desire to prevent Yerevan from gaining any significant influence or playing a meaningful role in the region. By introducing new demands, exerting unilateral control, and employing coercive bargaining strategies, Azerbaijan seeks to limit Yerevan's power and maintain its dominance in the ongoing conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding areas.

Azerbaijan wants to exert control over a land corridor to Turkey

Azerbaijan's desire for a land corridor to Turkey is part of a broader set of geopolitical interests and ambitions. The country has sought to exert control over a corridor, known as the "Zangezur Corridor," which would link mainland Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan and provide a connection to Turkey. This corridor would pass through southern Armenia's Syunik province and has been a source of tension between the two countries.

The Zangezur Corridor is strategically important for several reasons. Firstly, it would provide a direct land connection between Azerbaijan and its ally, Turkey, as well as access to Turkic-speaking nations in Central Asia. Secondly, it would serve as a vital transport and trade route, enhancing economic opportunities and potentially bypassing existing transit routes. Additionally, the corridor has been framed by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev as a matter of "historic Azerbaijani territory" and a symbol of nationalist and militaristic projects, leveraging ethnic sentiments to gain domestic support.

The proposed corridor has faced opposition from Armenia, which views it as a threat to its territorial sovereignty and a potential haven for illicit activities. Armenia has offered an alternative vision of regional connectivity, advocating for the opening of de jure borders and the rebuilding of cross-border infrastructure within the framework of international law and respect for territorial integrity. This proposal has gained support from the European Union and the United States.

However, the corridor plan has the backing of Russia and Turkey, with both countries having formed strategic alliances with Azerbaijan. Russia's involvement is particularly complex due to its role as a mediator in the region and its conflicting interests in upholding Armenia's security while also pursuing its alliance with Azerbaijan.

The Zangezur Corridor has significant geopolitical implications, and its realization could alter the strategic landscape in the Eurasian continent. It remains to be seen whether Azerbaijan, with the support of its allies, will be able to exert control over this land corridor and what consequences this would have for Armenia and the broader region.

Azerbaijan wants to take back land it considers its own

Azerbaijan's attacks on Armenia are driven by its desire to reclaim land that it considers rightfully Azerbaijani. This includes the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which has been at the heart of the conflict between the two nations. In 2020, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive and regained control of most of the territory it had lost to Armenia during the first Karabakh war from 1988 to 1994.

The roots of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh can be traced back to the Soviet era. In 1923, the Soviet Union established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic, despite the region being predominantly ethnically Armenian. In 1988, the regional legislature of Nagorno-Karabakh passed a resolution declaring its intention to join the Republic of Armenia, leading to armed fighting between the two republics. As the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Nagorno-Karabakh officially declared its independence, resulting in a full-scale war. Armenia gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh and occupied 20% of Azerbaijan's geographic area.

The first Karabakh war resulted in a ceasefire in 1994, known as the Bishkek Protocol, mediated by Russia, which left Nagorno-Karabakh de facto independent but heavily reliant on Armenia. This ceasefire was periodically violated by both sides, with intermittent clashes and the use of attack drones, shelling, and special operations activities.

In September 2020, heavy fighting broke out along the Azerbaijan-Nagorno-Karabakh border, resulting in thousands of casualties on both sides. Azerbaijan launched a military offensive and, by November, had reclaimed most of the territory it had lost. A Russia-brokered ceasefire agreement was reached, but tensions remained high, with Azerbaijan accusing Armenia of violating the agreement.

In September 2022, Azerbaijan initiated a large-scale invasion of Armenia, striking positions along a 200 km stretch of their shared border. This attack resulted in thousands of civilians being displaced and led to international condemnation and calls for a ceasefire. Despite these efforts, Azerbaijan continued its offensive and gained control of new positions deep inside Armenia.

Azerbaijan's actions are driven by its desire to reclaim what it considers its sovereign territory. This includes not only Nagorno-Karabakh but also certain regions of Armenia, such as Syunik, which Azerbaijani officials have referred to as "Western Azerbaijan." The conflict has resulted in a significant loss of life, displacement of civilians, and a ongoing tensions between the two nations, with fears that further escalation could occur if a peaceful resolution is not achieved.

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