The Phantom Menace: Isis And The Illusion Of Control In Afghanistan

ISIS-K, the Afghanistan affiliate of the Islamic State, has been a threat to the Taliban government in Afghanistan since the Taliban's takeover in 2021. ISIS-K is a rival of the Taliban and has carried out numerous attacks on civilians, Taliban units, and Afghanistan's Shiite minorities. The group aims to establish a pure Islamic system in Afghanistan and views the Taliban as an irreconcilable enemy that must be defeated. While the Taliban has been successful in containing ISIS-K in some areas, the group remains a significant threat and has expanded its reach to nearly all of Afghanistan's provinces. The Taliban's heavy-handed counterterrorism strategy and inability to prevent terrorist attacks have raised concerns among Western officials, who predict that ISIS-K could gain the capability to strike international targets.

The Islamic State's presence in Afghanistan

ISIS-K has carried out numerous attacks in Afghanistan, targeting both civilian and military targets. They have targeted religious minorities, such as the Hazaras, a Shiite minority group, as well as Sufis, who practice a form of Islamic mysticism. They have also launched attacks on schools, weddings, and other civilian gatherings. In addition, they have targeted Taliban units and security checkpoints, straining the new and untested Taliban government.

ISIS-K's leadership and initial rank-and-file fighters were mostly Pakistani, with Afghans joining later and taking minor leadership roles. The group has struggled to gain broad-based public support and is widely perceived as a foreign entity in Afghanistan. They have also failed to engage the Taliban in meaningful, face-to-face confrontations and lack the capacity to mount major coordinated attacks. However, they have attracted disaffected members of the Taliban and other regional militant groups who feel their organizations are not extreme enough.

The Taliban has a history of close ties with Al-Qaeda, a rival of the Islamic State, and there are concerns that Afghanistan could once again become a haven for terrorist groups. The Taliban has refused to cooperate with the United States in countering ISIS-K and is fighting the group on its own terms. The effectiveness of their efforts is difficult to measure, as there is limited access to intelligence and the established network of informants has collapsed.

The United States and its allies face a complicated terrorism landscape in Afghanistan, with tough choices and trade-offs ahead. While ISIS-K is not likely to launch direct attacks on the West, they could gain the capability to do so within six to twelve months. The group's regional and transnational terrorism ambitions, along with their cadre of foreign fighters, pose a significant threat.

The Islamic State's relationship with the Taliban

The Islamic State and the Taliban are rival extremist organisations with a hostile relationship. The Islamic State, also known as ISIS, ISIL, or Daesh, is a self-proclaimed caliphate and transnational terrorist organisation. The Taliban is an Islamic fundamentalist group and the de facto ruling power in Afghanistan.

The conflict between the two groups began in 2015 when the Islamic State established a regional branch in Afghanistan and Pakistan, known as the Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP) or ISIS-K. Clashes between the two groups over control of territory ensued, with the Islamic State targeting and assassinating Taliban members. The Islamic State has also carried out attacks on civilian targets, such as schools and weddings, and has targeted Afghanistan's Shiite minorities.

The Taliban has sought to suppress the Islamic State through military campaigns and by attempting to cut off their sources of support. The Taliban has also worked with the United States and other governments to counter the Islamic State. However, the Islamic State has proven resilient and continues to pose a threat to the Taliban and regional stability.

The rivalry between the Islamic State and the Taliban has led to a complex dynamic, with both groups vying for power and influence in Afghanistan and the region. The Islamic State's more extreme ideology and tactics have made it a formidable adversary to the Taliban, and their conflict has resulted in widespread violence and instability.

The Taliban's counterinsurgency strategy

The Taliban has also used scorched-earth tactics, which have alienated local communities more than degraded the ISIS-K threat.

The Taliban's governance and state-building

Transition to Governance

The Taliban's transition from an insurgent group to a governing body has been challenging, with the group struggling to establish a formal government structure. The Taliban have yet to draft and formalize a constitution and currently lack a basis for the rule of law. The group has also faced difficulties in transitioning their ranks into formal roles of state security forces, particularly in urban areas.

Suppression of Women's Rights

The Taliban have imposed strict interpretations of Islamic law, with women's rights being a notable casualty. The Taliban have prohibited most girls from attending secondary school and banned women from attending and teaching at universities, as well as working in most fields. These restrictions have severely limited women's participation in public life, the economy, and society.

Threat of ISIS-K

The emergence of ISIS-K, a rival of the Taliban, has posed a significant challenge to the group's governance and state-building efforts. ISIS-K has carried out attacks on civilian targets and attempted to position itself as the most legitimate jihadist group in the country. The Taliban have struggled to restrict ISIS-K's violent attacks, and their heavy-handed counterterrorism strategy has laid seeds for future recruitment and continued conflict.

Economic Challenges

The Taliban have faced economic challenges, with the country's economy floundering under their rule. The group has struggled to provide Afghans with adequate food supplies and economic opportunities, leading to malnutrition and job losses. The freezing of international aid and the loss of billions in foreign investment have further exacerbated the economic crisis.

Human Rights Abuses

The Taliban have been accused of committing numerous human rights abuses, including arbitrary killings, torture, and restrictions on freedom of expression and media. They have also been criticized for their heavy-handed approach to counterinsurgency, which has resulted in extrajudicial killings and the suppression of dissent.

Factionalism

The Taliban's governance has been marked by factionalism, with the group struggling to maintain cohesion across its various factions. The factions hold disparate views on key aspects of governance, and the Taliban leadership has had to balance these differing interests to maintain internal cohesion.

The threat of ISIS-K to the international community

ISIS-K, the Afghanistan affiliate of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), poses a significant threat to the international community. Since its inception in 2015, the group has targeted civilians, including religious minorities, and carried out attacks in Afghanistan and beyond. While ISIS-K's capacity for violence has been weakened by US-led counterterrorism operations, the group remains a threat to regional stability and has the ambition to conduct external operations.

ISIS-K's emergence in Afghanistan can be traced back to 2015 when Pakistani national Hafiz Saeed Khan pledged allegiance to then-ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The group initially consisted of Pakistani militants based in the eastern Afghan province of Nangahar, with some recruits from the Taliban and other extremist groups. ISIS-K's ideology is rooted in Jihadi-Salafism, and it advocates for mass-casualty attacks against civilians and states. The group's targets have included the Pakistani government and religious minorities in Afghanistan, such as the Hazaras and Sufis.

In recent years, ISIS-K's goals have evolved, shifting from a focus on anti-Pakistan and anti-Iran sentiments to a broader anti-Taliban and anti-Afghan religious minorities agenda. The group aims to establish a "pure" Islamic system in Afghanistan and views the Taliban as an irreconcilable enemy. While ISIS-K has a strong local focus, it also has regional and transnational terrorism ambitions. The group has claimed responsibility for attacks in Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Russia, and there are indications that it has plotted transnational attacks from Afghanistan.

The United States and the Taliban have previously worked together to combat ISIS-K, but the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 has changed the dynamics. The Taliban now govern Afghanistan and are facing the challenge of countering ISIS-K without direct US support. ISIS-K has taken advantage of the Taliban's transition to power to expand its reach and increase attacks. The Taliban's ability to counter ISIS-K effectively is limited by their lack of experience in counterinsurgency and the group's own military capabilities.

The international community, particularly the United States, faces a complex situation in addressing the threat posed by ISIS-K. While there is a shared interest in countering the group, the Taliban's close ties with other terrorist organizations, such as al-Qaeda, complicate the dynamics. The US has expressed concerns about the Taliban's ability to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a staging ground for terrorist groups, and experts warn that the Taliban's governance challenges and limited counterterrorism capabilities could lead to a resurgence of terrorist activity in the country.

To mitigate the threat, the US has considered various policy options, including providing limited support to the Taliban against ISIS-K, conducting unilateral "`over-the-horizon` counterterrorism operations," or allowing local dynamics to play out. However, each of these options comes with risks and challenges, and there is no easy solution to addressing the complex threat posed by ISIS-K to Afghanistan and the international community.

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