Damon Mcknight
Australia's population projections are based on several factors, including fertility rates, mortality rates, and migration. As of 2024, the population of Australia was 27.4 million, with an annual growth rate of 1.7%. The population is projected to reach between 34.3 and 45.9 million by 2071. By 2066, the population is expected to be between 37.4 and 49.2 million, with a median age of 39.5 to 43 years. This significant increase in population will have various implications for the country, influencing social, economic, and environmental aspects of Australian life.
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What You'll Learn
Population growth factors
Population growth is determined by several factors, including fertility rates, life expectancy, mortality rates, and migration. These factors are considered in population projections, which are not forecasts or predictions but rather illustrations of potential outcomes based on assumed levels of these components.
Fertility rates in Australia have decreased over time, dropping from 3.1 births per woman in 1921 to 1.7 in 2021. This decrease is reflected in the declining total fertility rate, which is expected to result in a declining natural increase in population growth in the future. The number of births is projected to increase to between 284,700 and 482,700 births per year by 2071, with a more specific range of 384,400 to 626,400 births per year projected for 2066.
Life expectancy at birth has increased significantly since the early 1900s, contributing to population growth. In 2021-2023, life expectancy at birth was 81.1 years for males and 85.1 years for females, with the highest life expectancy in the Australian Capital Territory for males (81.7 years) and the Australian Capital Territory and Western Australia for females (85.7 years). By 2066, male life expectancy at birth is projected to reach 83.00 years, while female life expectancy is expected to reach 86.00 years.
Mortality rates are another critical factor influencing population growth. In 2016-17, there were 160,200 deaths in Australia, and this number is projected to reach between 340,200 and 379,200 by 2066. The specific numbers will depend on future trends in age-sex differences and mortality rates.
Migration, both internal and international, also plays a significant role in population growth. In 2023-24, capital cities experienced growth due to overseas migration, natural increase, and internal migration. Net overseas migration has been a significant contributor to Australia's population growth, with 8.6 million people residing in Australia born overseas as of June 2024. Migration patterns can vary, as illustrated by an 8% increase in migrant departures from 204,000 to 221,000 between years.
The interplay of these factors—fertility, life expectancy, mortality, and migration—shapes Australia's population growth trajectory. Projections for 2066 provide a range of possible outcomes based on different assumptions about these factors, with Australia's population expected to reach between 37.4 and 49.2 million people.
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Life expectancy
The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on life expectancy in Australia, with a decrease of 0.1 years for males and females from 2019 to 2021. However, life expectancy has generally increased over time due to changes in the patterns of death caused by certain conditions. For example, in 1922, infectious diseases accounted for 15% of deaths in Australia, with an average age of 27 years. In 2023, infectious diseases (excluding COVID-19) accounted for less than 2% of deaths, with an average age of 80 years.
The Australian Capital Territory had the highest life expectancy for males (81.7 years) and females (85.7 years) in 2023. Meanwhile, the Northern Territory had the lowest life expectancy for both males (76.4 years) and females (80.4 years). Life expectancy also varies between populations, with First Nations people having a lower life expectancy than non-Indigenous Australians. In 2023, the difference in life expectancy at birth between these two groups was 8.8 years for males and 8.1 years for females.
By 2066, the median age in Australia is projected to increase from 37.2 years in 2017 to between 39.5 and 43.0 years. Additionally, the percentage of people aged 65 years and over is expected to increase from 15% in 2017 to between 21% and 23% in 2066. The population aged 85 years and over is also projected to rise from 2% in 2017 to between 3.6% and 4.4% in 2066. These projections highlight the aging population in Australia, with a larger proportion of individuals reaching older ages.
Overall, the projected population and life expectancy trends in Australia indicate a growing and aging population, with varying rates of change depending on factors such as gender, geography, and cultural background.
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Population by state
Australia's population growth is comprised of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration (migrant arrivals minus migrant departures). The current average annual growth rate (1.7%) is projected to decline to between 0.9% and 1.4%. The median age is projected to increase from 37.2 years in 2017 to between 39.5 and 43.0 years in 2066.
The number of births is projected to increase to between 384,400 and 626,400 births per year by 2066. The number of deaths is projected to reach between 340,200 and 379,200 by 2066. Natural increase is projected to be between 14,200 and 286,300 people in 2066.
The working-age population aged 15-64 years is projected to decrease from 66% to between 61% and 62% in 2066. People aged 65 years and over will increase from 15% in 2017 to between 21% and 23% in 2066. People aged 85 years and over will increase from 2% in 2017 to between 3.6% and 4.4% in 2066.
New South Wales is projected to remain the largest state, reaching over 9 million between 2025 and 2028. Most of New South Wales' growth is projected to occur in Greater Sydney, which is projected to increase from 65% of the state's population in 2017 to 67-68% in 2027. Sydney is expected to have between 6.0 million and 6.4 million people by 2027, while the rest of New South Wales is projected to have between 2.9 million and 3.0 million people by 2027.
Victoria is projected to experience the largest and fastest increase in population over the projection period, increasing by between 60% and 130%. Darwin is projected to increase its share of the territory's population by more than any other capital city, increasing from 60% in 2017 to between 63% and 64% in 2027.
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Population by age
Australia's population is projected to reach between 37.4 and 49.2 million by 2066. The median age is expected to increase from 37.2 years in 2017 to between 39.5 and 43 years in 2066. This increase in the median age reflects a broader trend of an ageing population, with significant changes to the age structure.
The working-age population, those aged 15-64 years, is projected to decrease from 66% to between 61% and 62% in 2066. This decrease is attributed to a combination of factors, including declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy. Fertility rates in Australia have decreased over time, dropping to 1.7 births per woman in 2021, and are expected to reach a record low of 1.45 babies per woman in 2024-25. On the other hand, life expectancy at birth has increased significantly, with male and female life expectancy projected to reach 87.68 and 89.16 years, respectively, by 2066.
The population of those aged 65 years and over will increase from 15% in 2017 to between 21% and 23% in 2066. This shift is influenced by the increasing life expectancy and the ageing of the baby boomer generation. Additionally, the population aged 85 years and over will see a notable increase from 2% in 2017 to a projected range of 3.6% to 4.4% in 2066. This age group has been considered in calculations but is often excluded from graphs due to its smaller size.
The population projections are not predictions or forecasts but assessments based on assumed levels of births, deaths, and migration between 2018 and 2066. These assumptions are adjusted to account for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which is expected to influence mortality rates for those aged 50 and above until 2027-28. Net overseas migration is also a key factor in population growth, with a projected net migration of 340,000 in 2024-25, contributing to the overall population increase.
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Population by country of birth
Australia's population has increased from 3.8 million in 1901 to 25.7 million in 2021, with an estimated population of 26 million in 2022. It is projected to reach between 34.3 and 45.9 million people by 2071. The current ten-year average annual growth rate of 1.4% is expected to decrease to between 0.2% and 0.9%. The population growth is influenced by natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration.
As of 30 June 2024, Australia's estimated resident population was 27.2 million people, comprising 18.6 million people born in Australia and 8.6 million people born overseas. The proportion of Australia's population born outside the country was 31.5% in 2024, up from 30.7% in 2023 and 29.3% in 2021. This increase in overseas-born residents is attributed to the easing of COVID-19 travel restrictions in 2022, which led to a rise in migration to Australia.
In 2024, Australia's population included individuals born in almost every country worldwide, reflecting the diverse nature of the country's migration patterns. The four most common countries of birth accounted for over one-third of Australians born abroad. England (964,000) had the largest group, followed by India (916,000), China (700,000), and New Zealand. Notably, the population born in India has shown the most significant increase since 2014.
While population growth in Australia remains positive, it is expected to slow down due to a projected decline in net overseas migration. Additionally, the total fertility rate is forecast to decrease to 1.45 babies per woman in 2024-25, impacting the natural increase in population. By 2034-35, the number of deaths is anticipated to surpass the number of births, leading to a natural decline in population growth.
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Frequently asked questions
Australia's population in 2017 was 24.6 million and it is projected to reach between 37.4 and 49.2 million people by 2066.
The current average annual growth rate (1.7%) is projected to decline to between 0.9% and 1.4%. The number of births is projected to increase to between 384,400 and 626,400 births per year by 2066.
The median age for Australia is projected to increase from 37.2 years in 2017 to between 39.5 and 43.0 years in 2066.
Sydney is projected to increase from 65% of New South Wales' state population in 2017 to 67-68% in 2027. By 2066, the population is projected to be between 11.0 million and 15.6 million.
