Recent Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: What's The Latest?

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been involved in a decades-long conflict over the mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but has been predominantly populated by ethnic Armenians. In September 2023, more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled the region as Azerbaijan's military moved in, and the territory surrendered to Azerbaijan. Since then, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been working towards a peace deal, with both sides establishing a bilateral delimitation commission tasked with agreeing on borders. While this is a positive step, Armenians still fear a new war with Azerbaijan, and there is an increasing number of civilians in the Armenian capital of Yerevan taking up military training.

Armenia and Azerbaijan are working towards a peace deal

The conflict has resulted in two wars since the collapse of the Soviet Union, with the most recent escalation in 2020, resulting in thousands of deaths. However, there are signs that a peace agreement may be within reach. Armenia's Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, has expressed hope for a deal in the coming months, and both countries have established a bilateral delimitation commission to agree on borders. Armenia has also promised to return four Azerbaijani villages on the northern border, which have been held since the 1990s.

Despite these positive steps, there are still significant challenges to overcome. Civilians in the Armenian capital of Yerevan are taking up military training, and there is a sense of insecurity among Armenians due to disillusionment with Russia, traditionally seen as their security guarantor. Armenia has also agreed to hand back four border villages to Azerbaijan, prompting protests from nearby residents who fear being left exposed to attack.

Furthermore, there are competing interests and outside influences at play. Armenia has been diversifying its foreign policy, hosting joint military exercises with the US and securing weapons sales from France, while Azerbaijan has benefited from Turkish support, with Turkish-made drones playing a crucial role in the 2020 conflict. Despite these complexities, the two countries are continuing efforts towards finalising a peace treaty, with the hope that a lasting agreement can be reached to bring an end to the decades of conflict.

Armenia has agreed to hand back four border villages to Azerbaijan

The handover of these villages is a concession that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has made in an effort to secure a lasting peace agreement with Azerbaijan. Pashinyan described the deal as a "very important milestone for further strengthening Armenia's sovereignty and independence". However, this decision has sparked protests from residents of nearby Armenian settlements, who fear that the transfer of these villages could cut them off from the rest of the country. They also accuse Pashinyan of unilaterally giving away territory without receiving any guarantees in return.

The villages being returned are strategically important due to their proximity to Armenia's main highway north towards the border with Georgia, which is a vital trade route for the country. Additionally, a pipeline that supplies gas from Russia to Armenia runs alongside this highway. The return of these villages was a key condition set by Azerbaijan for reaching a peace deal and ending the decades-long conflict with Armenia, primarily centred on the region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The agreement was facilitated by the eighth round of talks between Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigorian and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Shahin Mustafayev. The negotiations took place at an undisclosed location along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. The villages that are being exchanged between the two countries are situated in the northeastern Tavush Province of Armenia and the northwestern Qazax district of Azerbaijan.

While the villages in question are currently uninhabited, they hold significant value for both nations. This agreement is a notable development in the ongoing peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, signalling a potential path towards resolving their long-standing territorial disputes and establishing a peaceful coexistence.

Azerbaijan has demanded a free railroad corridor through Armenia to its exclave of Nakhichevan

Azerbaijan has demanded a free railroad corridor, known as the "Zangezur corridor", through Armenia's Syunik province to its exclave of Nakhchivan. This demand has been a source of tension between the two countries and has raised fears of a potential new war. Here are some key points regarding this issue:

• Azerbaijani Perspective: President Ilham Aliyev has argued that the corridor is necessary for unimpeded access to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and has threatened to take it by force if Armenia does not agree. Azerbaijan sees the corridor as a way to connect its mainland with the Nakhchivan exclave and has pushed for it since the 2020 ceasefire.
• Armenian Perspective: Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has called the idea of the Zangezur corridor "totally unacceptable" and a "blow" to the peace process. Armenia wants to maintain control over the road and fears that the corridor could be used for an Azerbaijani invasion.
• Regional Significance: The Zangezur corridor is part of a longer, potentially lucrative east-west route called the "Middle Corridor," connecting China and Central Asian countries to Turkey via Azerbaijan. Russia also supports the corridor as it would provide a southern route to circumvent Western sanctions.
• Peace Efforts: Despite the dispute over the corridor, Armenia and Azerbaijan have established a bilateral delimitation commission to work on border issues and agree on borders. However, the sides seem to have dismissed each other's draft proposals for a peace agreement.
• International Reactions: Various international observers have characterized the Zangezur corridor as a potential security threat and a pan-Turkist agenda. The European Union, France, and the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention have all issued statements condemning Azerbaijani rhetoric and expressing concern over regional stability.
• Alternative Proposals: Armenia has proposed multiple simultaneous routes connecting it to both Turkey and Azerbaijan, which would end the ongoing mutual blockade. However, this proposal has not been accepted by Azerbaijan, which continues to push for the Zangezur corridor.

Armenia has launched joint military drills with the US

The joint military drills with the US are part of Armenia's broader strategy to diversify its foreign relations and strengthen its national security. Armenia has also secured weapons sales from France and plans to train Armenian officers. Additionally, there have been hints from Armenian officials about applying for EU membership, and the European Parliament has adopted a resolution on deepening ties with Yerevan. These moves have angered Russia, which considers Armenia a tool for the West to destabilise the South Caucasus.

The "Eagle Partner" war games, which first took place in September 2023, have faced criticism from Moscow, with Russian officials describing the drills as "unfriendly." Despite the protests, Armenia has continued to strengthen its military cooperation with the US, with the 2024 iteration of the drills involving 175 Armenian and 85 US troops. The exercises reflect the Armenian government's priority on national security and border issues, which have become increasingly important to the country's citizens following the conflict with Azerbaijan.

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has resulted in the displacement of over 100,000 ethnic Armenians from their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh. Despite ongoing talks of a peace deal, Armenians fear the possibility of a new war with Azerbaijan, as tensions remain high and border disputes persist. The recent opinion poll highlights the sense of insecurity among Armenians, fuelled by their disillusionment with Russia, which has traditionally been viewed as Armenia's security guarantor.

Azerbaijan has reopened its embassy in Iran

The reopening comes after a deadly attack on the embassy in January 2023, which resulted in the death of the mission's security chief and injuries to two other security officials. The attacker was tried and sentenced to death by Iran's Justice Ministry. As a result of the incident, Baku closed its embassy and evacuated its staff.

Relations between Tehran and Baku have been strained, with reciprocal accusations of supporting hard-line Islamists and attempts to overthrow governments. Additionally, Azerbaijan's decision to open an embassy in Israel, Iran's archenemy, contributed to the deterioration of ties.

However, the two countries share historical and cultural connections, and there are over 12 million ethnic Azeris in Iran, making them the largest minority group. The late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi had worked to improve relations, stating that the bond between the nations was "unbreakable."

With the reopening of the embassy, Azerbaijan and Iran are taking steps to rebuild their diplomatic relationship and find common ground despite their differences.

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