Russia-Azerbaijan Relations: Friends Or Foes?

Russia and Azerbaijan are allies de facto and de jure, with embassies in each other's countries. However, their relationship is complex and multi-faceted, and is influenced by their shared history, their economic ties, and their respective relations with other countries in the region, such as Armenia, Ukraine, and Iran.

Azerbaijan and Russia's energy exports and trade

Azerbaijan's energy exports and trade are heavily focused on oil and natural gas, with these fossil fuels accounting for more than 90% of the country's exports. Azerbaijan has sought to increase its energy exports to Europe, particularly following the EU's decision to reduce its energy dependence on Russia.

Oil Exports

Azerbaijan has significant oil reserves, with an estimated 7 billion barrels, accounting for 0.4% of global reserves. Oil production takes place both onshore and offshore in the Caspian Sea, with the Azeri-Chirag-Deepwater Gunashli (ACG) field being the country's largest oil field. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline is the main route for Azerbaijan's oil exports, transporting oil to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan in Türkiye, from where it is shipped to world markets. The country's state-owned oil company, SOCAR, has stakes in all production-sharing agreements (PSAs) and is involved in exploring oil and gas fields, as well as producing, processing, and transporting oil and gas.

Natural Gas Exports

Azerbaijan also has substantial natural gas reserves, estimated at 1.3-2.5 trillion cubic meters. The country became a net exporter of natural gas in 2007 with the development of the Shah Deniz gas field, which is one of the world's largest. The South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) and the Hajigabul-Mozdok pipeline are the main routes for natural gas exports, supplying gas to Türkiye, Greece, Italy, and Bulgaria.

Trade Partners

Azerbaijan's main export destinations for its oil and natural gas include Italy, Turkey, Israel, India, and Greece. In 2022, Azerbaijan's total exports were valued at $38.9 billion, making it the 65th largest exporter in the world.

Renewable Energy

While fossil fuels dominate Azerbaijan's energy exports, the country is also exploring renewable energy sources. It has set a target of generating 30% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030 and has passed legislation to support the development of renewable energy projects. Wind and solar power are being pursued, with the aim of becoming an exporter of green energy to European markets.

Azerbaijan's role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Azerbaijan has sought to maintain functioning relations with both Russia and Ukraine during Russia's invasion. While it has provided Ukraine with humanitarian aid, it has avoided taking actions that directly oppose Moscow, such as refusing to join sanctions against Russia. This is likely due to Azerbaijan's interest in maintaining Russia's acceptance of its multi-vector foreign policy and gaining Moscow's support for its objectives in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Just two days before the February 2022 invasion, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia, Ilham Aliyev and Vladimir Putin, signed a wide-ranging political-military agreement, after which Aliyev declared that the pact brought their relations to the level of an alliance. A few months later, Azerbaijan signed an intelligence-sharing agreement with Russia.

Azerbaijan has become an essential partner for Russia in terms of energy exports and keeping open a transport corridor to Iran. The war in Ukraine has made Azerbaijan more important to Russia, as it needs Azerbaijan's position on north-south transit routes to work around Western sanctions. Azerbaijan has also become a key player in the International North-South Transit Corridor (INSTC), which connects Russia to Iran and its Persian Gulf ports.

While relations between the Azerbaijani government and Russia tend to be tepid, many Azerbaijani opposition leaders have condemned Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine has accused Azerbaijan of evading sanctions against Russia.

In summary, Azerbaijan has played a complex role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, seeking to balance its relations with both countries while also taking advantage of the situation to further its own objectives in the region.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

The First Nagorno-Karabakh War, also known as the Artsakh Liberation War in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, was an armed conflict that took place in the late 1980s to May 1994. The war was won by Artsakh and Armenia, and led to the occupation of regions around Soviet-era Nagorno-Karabakh. There were expulsions of ethnic Armenians from Azerbaijan and ethnic Azerbaijanis from Armenia and the Armenian-controlled areas. A Russian-brokered ceasefire was signed in May 1994, leading to diplomatic mediation.

Since the bilateral acceptance of a ceasefire in 1994, which formally remained in force until September 2020, the use of attack drones, shelling, and special operations activities by Armenian and Azerbaijani troops have led to intermittent clashes. Early April 2016 witnessed the most intense fighting since 1994, leading to hundreds of casualties along the line of separation. After four days of fighting, the two sides announced they had agreed to cease hostilities. However, a breakdown in talks resulted in both sides accusing each other of ceasefire violations, and tensions remained high.

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War began in September 2020 with an Azerbaijani offensive along the line of contact established in the aftermath of the first war. Clashes were particularly intense in the less mountainous districts of southern Nagorno-Karabakh. On the same day, Azerbaijan's Parliament declared martial law and established curfews in several cities and regions following the clashes. Turkey provided military support to Azerbaijan, although the extent of this support has been disputed.

The war was marked by the deployment of drones, sensors, long-range heavy artillery, and missile strikes, as well as by state propaganda and the use of official social media accounts in online information warfare. In particular, Azerbaijan's widespread use of drones was seen as crucial in determining the conflict's outcome. Numerous countries and the United Nations strongly condemned the fighting and called on both sides to de-escalate tensions and resume meaningful negotiations. Three ceasefires brokered by Russia, France, and the United States failed to stop the conflict.

Following the capture of Shusha, the second-largest city in Nagorno-Karabakh, a ceasefire agreement was signed, ending all hostilities in the area from 10 November 2020. The agreement also established the Lachin corridor, a small strip of land to be monitored by Russian peacekeepers that would serve as a transit route connecting Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh.

In December 2022, Azerbaijani activists occupied the Lachin corridor, ostensibly protesting environmental degradation caused by illegal mining in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the protesters reportedly had state backing from Baku, and they blocked all traffic except for Red Cross and Russian convoys. The Russian peacekeepers, in place to ensure the artery remained open for Armenian supplies, were unwilling or unable to secure and reopen the highway. As a result, residents in Nagorno-Karabakh faced severe shortages and rationing.

On 19 September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive on Nagorno-Karabakh, officially dissolving Artsakh on 1 January 2024. The conflict has resulted in a massive humanitarian crisis, with thousands of civilians fleeing their homes and facing food, medicine, and energy shortages.

The Zangezur corridor

During trilateral talks in 2021, Armenia expressed a willingness to participate in rebuilding Soviet-era railway links connecting Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan. Azerbaijan interpreted this as Armenian consent to the Zangezur corridor, but Armenia rejected this claim, emphasising that the ceasefire agreement did not contain any provisions for establishing such a corridor.

The dispute over the Zangezur corridor has escalated in recent years, with Azerbaijani President Aliyev threatening to establish the corridor by force if Armenia does not accede to its creation. In contrast, Armenia has offered a vision of broader regional connectivity, proposing the opening of de jure borders and the rebuilding of cross-border roads and railways while respecting the sovereignty of all countries involved.

The dispute over the Zangezur corridor has contributed to tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with concerns raised about the potential for military conflict and the violation of Armenia's territorial integrity. The international community, including the European Union, France, and the United States, has been closely monitoring the situation and advocating for a peaceful resolution that respects the sovereignty of all parties involved.

Azerbaijan's relations with the West

On the one hand, Azerbaijan has cultivated relationships with Western countries and organisations. It is a member of the Council of Europe, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, NATO's Partnership for Peace, and the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council, among others. The country has embassies in several Western capitals, including Washington, D.C., London, Paris, Berlin, and Brussels. Azerbaijan also maintains good relations with the European Union, particularly in the framework of its Eastern European Neighbourhood Policy.

However, Azerbaijan's relationship with Russia is a significant and damaging part of a complex web of relationships. Baku entered a strategic partnership with Moscow, marked by an "Allied Relations" Declaration in February 2022, just before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This partnership has expanded to include intelligence-sharing and hydrocarbon trade, allowing Azerbaijan to circumvent Western sanctions by shipping Russian oil and gas to Europe. Azerbaijan has also endorsed Russian mediation efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, while rebuffing initiatives from the U.S. and the EU.

Azerbaijan's trajectory suggests a tilt towards Moscow, marking a significant shift in its geopolitical stance. The country's 2020 victory in the war in Karabakh resulted in the deployment of Russian peacekeeping forces in the region, and the subsequent September 2023 attack by Azerbaijan changed the entire reality of the region, angering the US, France, and other Western actors.

In summary, while Azerbaijan maintains diplomatic and economic ties with the West, its burgeoning relationship with Russia and its willingness to help Moscow evade sanctions have complicated its relations with Western powers.

Frequently asked questions