Damon Mcknight
Australia's population growth rate has been declining, with a decrease in immigration and birth rates. The COVID-19 pandemic and international border closures have contributed to a decline in overseas migration, impacting population growth. Historically, Australia's population growth has been influenced by waves of immigration, but the share of European immigrants has declined. Fertility rates have also fallen, with reliable contraception, economic factors, and changing societal values influencing family planning. The demographic transition theory suggests that lower birth rates in wealthier societies indicate success in caring for seniors, reducing the need for children as a source of old-age security. These factors have led to a projected population decrease in Australia, with potential implications for the country's future.
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What You'll Learn
Falling fertility rates
Australia's population has grown significantly since British colonisation in 1788, due to waves of immigration and increasing fertility rates. However, in recent years, Australia has experienced a decrease in its population for the first time in decades. While this decrease has been driven by a decline in overseas migration, falling fertility rates have also contributed to this trend.
Fertility rates in Australia have been declining since the 1960s, with the rate of natural increase falling from 13.0 persons per 1,000 population in 1962 to 8.5 in 1981. This downward trend continued in the late 1990s, with the rate falling below seven for the first time in 1996. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) predicts that low fertility rates, combined with an ageing population, will result in a natural decrease in population by the mid-2030s.
Several factors have influenced the decline in fertility rates in Australia. Firstly, reliable contraception has been widely available for decades, giving individuals more control over their reproductive choices. Additionally, the economic climate may play a role, as the costs of raising children, including rents, mortgages, and other expenses, have increased for Australians of child-bearing age. This may cause individuals to perceive parenthood as more challenging and financially burdensome.
Furthermore, societal changes and increasing prosperity may contribute to lower birth rates. As societies become wealthier and better able to care for their ageing populations, there is less pressure on couples to have children to provide support in old age. This phenomenon, known as the "demographic transition," suggests that lower birth rates can be viewed as a sign of societal progress and success in addressing senior welfare.
While falling fertility rates may contribute to population decline, it is important to consider other factors as well. For instance, the COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted international migration to Australia, causing a decline in the migrant population. Additionally, Australia's life expectancy of 83.2 years in 2015-2017 is among the highest in the world, contributing to an ageing population. These factors collectively shape Australia's demographic landscape and influence its population trends.
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Decrease in immigration
Australia has historically witnessed more people migrating into the country than leaving it annually, making overseas migration a significant contributor to its population growth. However, this trend experienced a reversal during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 due to border closures and other pandemic-related impacts.
In the quarter from June to September 2020, a population decline of -4,200 people or -0.02% was observed, marking the first population decline since World War I in 1916. Net overseas migration decreased by 64.8% compared to the previous year, driven by a 35.4% drop in overseas migration arrivals.
During the 2023-24 financial year, the number of migrant arrivals decreased to 667,000, a 10% drop from the previous year's 739,000. This decrease in migrant arrivals is the first since the borders reopened. Notably, temporary visa holders constituted the largest group of migrant arrivals in 2023-24, recording lower volumes than the previous year.
The top five countries of birth for migrant arrivals to Australia in 2023-24 were India, China, the Philippines, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Compared to 2022-23, migrant arrivals decreased from India, China, and the Philippines, while arrivals from Australia and the United Kingdom increased. Despite the overall decrease in migrant arrivals, the number of arrivals from these five countries remained higher than the pre-pandemic levels of 2018-19.
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COVID-19 international travel restrictions
Australia's international travel restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted the country's population dynamics. From March 2020, the Australian government implemented border closures and travel bans to slow the spread of the virus. These measures had a notable effect on migration patterns and overall population growth.
During the quarter from June to September 2020, Australia experienced a population decline of 4,200 people, or 0.02%. This decrease was driven primarily by a drop in net overseas migration, which fell by 34,800. While there were 20,600 overseas arrivals, there were 55,400 overseas departures, contributing to the negative net migration figure.
The COVID-19 international travel restrictions played a significant role in reducing inbound migration. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that net overseas migration decreased by 64.8% compared to the previous year. This decline was attributed to a 35.4% drop in overseas migration arrivals. As a result, Australia's population growth for the year ending September 30, 2020, slowed to 0.9%, with the country's population reaching 25.7 million people.
The travel bans were particularly effective in reducing the importation of COVID-19 cases into Australia. By early March 2020, without the ban on travel from China, it was estimated that Australia would have had over 70 imported cases. However, with the ban in place, there were only 15 importations observed, representing a significant 79% reduction in expected cases.
In summary, the COVID-19 international travel restrictions contributed to a decrease in Australia's population growth rate, primarily due to reduced inbound migration. The travel bans also played a crucial role in Australia's public health strategy by curbing the importation and spread of COVID-19 cases.
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Fewer births
Australia's birth rate has hit an all-time low, with a fertility rate of 1.50 in 2023, the lowest ever recorded. This is a large decline from 1.63 in 2022 and is the biggest annual movement since the 1970s.
The median birth age of mothers has risen to 32, and women are having fewer children, with two children becoming the most common family size. The total fertility rate for Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander women was 2.17 births per woman, compared to 1.50 for women in Australia overall. The gap is particularly marked for those aged 20-24.
There are several reasons why women in Australia are choosing to stay child-free. Firstly, younger Australians are increasingly concerned about their economic security, and this is influencing their family planning decisions. Additionally, housing affordability, job security, gender equality, and climate change are all factors that impact child-free decisions.
The falling fertility rate, combined with an increase in deaths from an ageing population, will result in a natural increase falling below zero in the mid-2030s. This has economic consequences for the future, as birth rates are an indicator of economic confidence.
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Ageing population
Australia's population is ageing, with the median age of Australians rising from 34 twenty years ago to 37 today. This ageing population will reshape Australian society, impacting everything from community structure to national and household finances.
The ageing population is due to two main factors: declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy. Firstly, Australia's fertility rate has been declining, reaching 1.73 children per woman in 2001, below the replacement level of 2.1. This is partly due to a cultural shift, with more women prioritizing their careers over having a family. Secondly, life expectancy in Australia is high and increasing. For children born between 2019 and 2021, boys are expected to live to 81 and girls to 85. This increase in life expectancy is attributed to low mortality rates and improvements in healthcare and medical technology.
The ageing population has significant implications for Australia. One key impact is the increasing demand for healthcare and aged care services. With older Australians requiring more healthcare, the country's spending on health services for the elderly is projected to more than double. Additionally, Australia is already facing a shortage of care workers, and this gap is expected to widen, with an estimated additional 285,800 workers needed for aged care by 2050.
The ageing population also affects the workforce. As people reach the age of 55, their working participation tends to decrease, resulting in lower working rates among the elderly. This shift has budgetary implications, with a reduction in revenue due to a declining working population, coupled with increased spending on elderly support.
To address the challenges posed by the ageing population, Australia may need to increase taxes to better fund the aged care sector. Additionally, society may need to redefine its perception of ageing and retirement, as Australians live longer and healthier lives.
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Frequently asked questions
There are several factors that have contributed to a decrease in Australia's population. Firstly, the country has seen a decline in its migrant population, with traditional post-war migrant groups such as those from Italy, Germany, and Greece experiencing population drops. Secondly, the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting international travel restrictions and border closures have impacted population growth, with a net decrease in overseas migration. Additionally, Australia has witnessed a fall in its natural increase rate since 1962 due to decreasing fertility rates, which is a trend observed in other countries as well.
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected Australia's population, particularly due to the decrease in overseas migration. International travel restrictions and border closures implemented during the pandemic resulted in a net decrease in overseas migration, contributing to a small decline in the overall population.
Migration has historically been a significant factor in Australia's population growth. However, in recent years, Australia's migrant population has decreased for the first time in two decades, primarily due to the pandemic disrupting global movement. This decline in migration has contributed to a slowdown in population growth, and it remains to be seen how migration patterns will evolve in the post-pandemic era.
Fertility rates have been on a downward trend in Australia, falling below the replacement rate. This means that each couple is having fewer children, resulting in a decreasing birth rate. Various factors contribute to this trend, including the availability of reliable contraception, economic considerations, and changing societal priorities. The Australian Bureau of Statistics projects that continued low fertility, combined with an ageing population, will lead to a natural decrease in population by the mid-2030s.
