Belarus Exodus: Why Are People Leaving?

Belarus has been facing a political crisis since the 2020 presidential election, which saw authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko declared the winner despite the vote being widely dismissed as fraudulent. The election sparked mass protests across the country, resulting in a brutal crackdown by the government. Hundreds of students have faced expulsion, jail time, or exile for speaking out against the government. Many dissidents have fled the country, and neighbouring countries such as Lithuania and Poland have offered refuge to those seeking asylum. The situation has been further exacerbated by Belarus's role in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, leading to international sanctions and travel bans.

Political repression and violence

The Belarusian government has employed intimidation tactics, violent suppression, and restrictive measures to silence dissent. Hundreds of students have faced repercussions for speaking out, including expulsion from universities, arrests, and interrogation by the police and KGB. The "Student Initiative Group" reported that 415 students had been arrested at protests since September 2020, with 135 expelled and 27 facing charges.

In addition to targeting students, the regime has also tightened its grip on the general population. In September 2024, Belarus temporarily banned most citizens from leaving the country, including foreign residency permit holders. This move was seen as a response to international outrage over the diversion of a Ryanair flight and the arrest of a top dissident, Roman Protasevich, and his girlfriend, Sofia Sapega. The State Border Committee justified the restrictions by citing the coronavirus pandemic, but they were met with criticism for violating the constitutional rights of Belarusian citizens.

The political situation in Belarus has resulted in a significant exodus of its citizens, particularly the youth. Many seek higher education and better economic opportunities abroad, while others flee political persecution and repression. The brain drain has become a growing concern, with talented and educated individuals choosing to build their futures elsewhere, impacting the country's long-term development prospects.

The European Union and other international actors have responded to the political repression in Belarus with sanctions and other measures. However, Lukashenko has retaliated by intentionally sparking a migration crisis at the Poland-Belarus border, allowing people from the Middle East and Africa to transit through Belarus and attempt to cross into Poland and other EU countries. This crisis has further strained relations and led to a humanitarian emergency, with migrants facing dangerous conditions and a lack of access to aid.

Lukashenko's authoritarian rule

Alexander Lukashenko, the current president of Belarus, has been described as running an "authoritarian state". In a 2022 interview, he admitted that his system of power is "tougher", and that he would not rule out the word "authoritarian" to describe it. However, he denied being a dictator, and claimed that there were no political prisoners in the country.

Lukashenko has been the president of Belarus since 1994, making him the longest-serving head of state in Europe. He has been labelled by the media as "Europe's last dictator", and international monitors have not regarded Belarusian elections as free and fair, except for his initial win. The government suppresses opponents and limits media freedom, leading to multiple Western governments imposing sanctions on Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials.

Lukashenko's early economic policies aimed to prevent the issues that occurred in other post-Soviet states, such as the establishment of oligarchic structures and mass unemployment. He kept many industries under government control and maintained a socialist economic model, consistent with the retention of Soviet-era symbolism, including the Russian language, coat of arms, and national flag.

Under Lukashenko's rule, the Belarusian government has been described as authoritarian, with the president holding effective control of all governing power in the nation. His decrees carry more weight than ordinary legislation, and he has near-absolute control over government spending. The legislature is dominated by his supporters, and there is little to no substantive opposition to presidential decisions.

Lukashenko's rule has been marked by political repression, including torture, sexual abuse, and other forms of repression against protesters and critics. In 2020, mass protests erupted across Belarus following the presidential election, which was marred by allegations of widespread electoral fraud. Lukashenko's response to the protests was to embark on a far-reaching crackdown on any remaining pockets of dissent, with many Belarusians being put on trial behind closed doors.

In addition to political repression, Lukashenko has also been accused of corruption, including misappropriation of EU funds for personal residences and automobiles. He has also made several controversial statements that have been regarded as antisemitic, homophobic, and misogynistic.

As a result of Lukashenko's authoritarian rule, many Belarusians have been forced to flee the country, seeking asylum in neighbouring countries such as Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine.

Human rights violations

Since the 2020 crackdown on dissent, an estimated 350,000 people have left Belarus, with many more following suit. The human rights violations that have led to this exodus are extensive and include:

• Torture and cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment by security forces.
• Arbitrary arrest and detention.
• Political prisoners.
• Transnational repression against individuals in another country.
• Serious problems with the independence of the judiciary.
• Arbitrary or unlawful interference with privacy.
• Punishment of family members for alleged offenses by a relative.
• Serious abuses in a conflict related to Belarus' complicity in Russia's war against Ukraine.
• Serious restrictions on freedom of expression and media freedom, including violence or threats of violence against journalists, and censorship.
• Restrictions on internet freedom.
• Substantial interference with the freedom of peaceful assembly and freedom of association.
• Restrictions on the right to leave the country.
• Serious and unreasonable restrictions on political participation.
• Serious government corruption.
• Serious government restrictions on and harassment of domestic and international human rights organizations.
• Extensive gender-based violence, including domestic or intimate partner violence.
• Trafficking in persons.
• Crimes involving violence or threats of violence targeting lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, or intersex persons.
• Prohibiting independent trade unions and restricting workers' freedom of association.
• Lack of investigation of and accountability for gender-based violence, including domestic and intimate partner violence, sexual violence, and other forms of violence.
• Lack of protection for refugees and migrants, who suffer abuses at the hands of the authorities.
• Death sentences continue to be imposed.
• Arbitrary deprivation of life and unlawful killings.
• Lack of fair public trial.
• Arbitrary deprivation of citizenship.

Economic crisis

Belarus has been facing a significant economic crisis, which has contributed to the departure of its citizens, particularly the youth, in search of better opportunities abroad. The economic situation in Belarus has been characterized by several challenges, including:

• Low wages and high prices: The average monthly salary for teachers in Belarus is between $200 and $300, while doctors earn around $500. In contrast, the prices of goods such as food, clothing, and other items are comparable to those in neighboring European countries like Poland and Lithuania. This disparity between wages and the cost of living makes it challenging for Belarusians to afford basic necessities.
• Lack of educational opportunities: Many young Belarusians are dissatisfied with the quality of education in their country. They cite a lack of flexibility in choosing subjects, a lack of motivation among students, and a lack of incentives for teachers to adopt innovative teaching methods. Additionally, the political climate in Belarus limits opportunities for those aspiring to careers in certain fields, such as politics. As a result, many young people seek educational opportunities in other countries, often with the intention of staying there after completing their studies.
• Political repression and exile: The disputed 2020 presidential election, which saw the victory of authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko, sparked widespread protests and a harsh crackdown on opposition voices. Hundreds of students who spoke out against the government faced expulsion from universities, imprisonment, or exile. As a result, many young Belarusians, including members of student strike committees and opposition leaders, have fled the country, seeking safety and freedom of expression elsewhere.
• Brain drain: The exodus of young, educated, and talented individuals from Belarus has led to a brain drain, impacting the country's potential for growth and development. This trend is not limited to the youth, as middle-aged individuals between the ages of 31 and 50 are also choosing to leave the country. The loss of human capital can have long-term consequences for Belarus's economy and society.
• International sanctions: The economic crisis in Belarus has been exacerbated by international sanctions imposed on the country due to its political actions. These sanctions have targeted various sectors, including aviation and financial restrictions. For example, in response to the diversion of a Ryanair flight and the arrest of a dissident, many EU countries barred the Belarusian state airline, Belavia, from their airspace. Such actions have economic repercussions and contribute to the overall economic challenges faced by the country.

Border crisis

Overview

The Poland-Belarus border crisis involves thousands of migrants, many fleeing dangerous conditions in the Middle East, attempting to enter Poland and travel onwards to Germany. This has resulted in clashes with Polish police and a dire humanitarian situation, with temperatures falling below freezing. The crisis has been ongoing since at least November 2021 and shows no signs of ending soon.

Causes

The immediate cause of the border crisis is the influx of migrants from the Middle East and other regions, who are seeking to enter the EU via Belarus. However, the underlying causes are complex and multifaceted.

Belarusian Government Policies

The Belarusian government, led by President Alexander Lukashenko, has been accused of intentionally sparking the crisis by allowing people from the Middle East and Africa to travel to Minsk and providing them with transport to the Polish border. European leaders believe that Lukashenko is motivated by revenge for sanctions and criticism of his brutal crackdown on the Belarusian opposition. Lukashenko himself has stated that his country would no longer enforce border controls with the EU as retaliation for sanctions.

Geopolitical Factors

The crisis is also influenced by geopolitical factors, including Poland's membership in the EU and NATO, and its support for Belarusian opposition media outlets and protesters. Additionally, the Kremlin's support for the Belarusian government, both economically and militarily, has been noted, although there is no conclusive evidence that Russian President Putin has masterminded the crisis.

Impact

The border crisis has had significant impacts on both the migrants involved and the countries involved.

Humanitarian Impact

The humanitarian impact of the crisis is dire, with migrants facing hunger, exposure, and brutality at the hands of both Belarusian and Polish authorities. Amnesty International has documented cases of beatings, torture, inhumane conditions, extortion, and other abuses. The situation has been described as a "sordid game with human lives."

Political Impact

The crisis has also had political repercussions, with Poland imposing a state of emergency that prevents aid organizations and journalists from accessing certain areas. The Polish government has also passed laws allowing the summary expulsion of migrants back into Belarus, and there have been allegations of pushbacks by Polish authorities. The EU has pledged greater support for Poland and other border countries, and new sanctions have been imposed on Belarus.

Resolution

Resolving the border crisis is a complex challenge. Turkey and the United Arab Emirates have taken steps to prevent people from Iraq, Syria, and Yemen from flying to Belarus, cutting off two major routes for migrants. However, the crisis is far from over, and hundreds more desperate people are arriving in Minsk every week.

Frequently asked questions