Lukashenko's Absence: Has He Fled Belarus?

On 24 June 2023, there were reports that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko had fled the country. Lukashenko is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and has ruled Belarus with an iron fist since 1994. The reports of his fleeing the country came after mercenaries from the Wagner Group said they were preparing to take over Moscow. Lukashenko's plane was seen on a tracker over Turkey hours after Wagner Group mercenaries entered a Russian city and threatened Moscow.

Lukashenko's whereabouts unknown

Speculation is mounting over the whereabouts of Belarus' authoritarian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, after he was reportedly spotted fleeing the country amid rumours of a coup. Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has ruled Belarus with an iron fist for nearly three decades.

On June 24, 2023, an aircraft carrying the 68-year-old dictator was seen on a flight tracker over Turkey, just hours after mercenaries from the Wagner Group stormed a Russian city and threatened Moscow. The Wagner Group's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, accused Putin's forces of firing on his men and claimed that his forces had crossed into Russia and taken the city of Rostov en route to Moscow.

Lukashenko's plane was spotted flying out of Minsk, Belarus, and over Russia, where its signal was lost before reappearing over Turkey. This fuelled rumours that Lukashenko was fleeing his country as the Wagner Group threatened to take Moscow. The Belarusian President is a key ally of Putin in the war with Ukraine, allowing Kremlin forces to use his country's territory to invade Ukraine.

The uncertainty surrounding Lukashenko's whereabouts comes after he missed several scheduled appearances, sparking speculation on social media about his health. Lukashenko was last seen publicly on May 9, 2023, at a Victory Day parade in Moscow's Red Square, where he appeared pale and bloated. He then skipped a celebratory breakfast in the Kremlin and flew back to Minsk, where he attended a similar event but made no speech, delegating it to his defence minister.

In the following days, Lukashenko cancelled a government meeting and, for the first time in years, failed to appear at an important state holiday, with Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko reading an address on his behalf. Government officials have not commented on Lukashenko's unusual absence, and there has been no official report on his health.

Opposition figures and analysts have warned that a serious illness involving Lukashenko could destabilise Belarus. Exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya stated that "in countries where dictatorship reigns, the entire system starts to collapse when a leader disappears." Tsikhanouskaya, who was forced to seek refuge in Lithuania after standing against Lukashenko in the 2020 presidential election, now considers herself the legitimate leader of Belarus. She has started appealing to Belarusian troops to refuse to fight in Ukraine and to switch sides, arguing that Putin aims to make Lukashenko's regime complicit in the war.

Lukashenko's health

There have been several reports of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's ill health. In May 2023, Lukashenko appeared at a military parade in Moscow, looking tired and unsteady. He was also seen with a bandage on his hand, which fuelled speculation about his health. Lukashenko then missed a lunch hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin and a ceremony in Minsk, with flight tracking data showing a Russian government plane flying in and out of Minsk. It was rumoured that Lukashenko had been admitted to the hospital.

Lukashenko addressed the rumours in a meeting broadcast by Pul Pervovo, a state outlet that reports on his activities. He attributed his hoarse voice to an adenovirus, a common cold virus, and said that it only took him three days to recover. He added, "I'm not going to die, guys. You'll have to struggle with me for a very long time to come."

Lukashenko has had other instances of visible illness. In 2021, during the coronavirus pandemic, he appeared on TV with what appeared to be an IV catheter bandage on his wrist. On another occasion, he was seen arriving in St. Petersburg, walking with difficulty and short of breath. He has also been described as "heavily overweight" in a video of a meeting with Putin in July 2024.

Lukashenko, who is known as "Batka," usually projects an active image and regularly appears on state TV engaging in physical activities such as chopping wood or harvesting crops. He has ruled Belarus since 1994 and has been referred to as "the last dictator in Europe."

Lukashenko's dictatorship

Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, has been labelled by the media as "Europe's last dictator". He has ruled the country since 1994, making him the longest-serving head of state in Europe. Lukashenko's rule has been characterised by the suppression of opponents and the limiting of media freedom, resulting in multiple Western governments imposing sanctions on him and other Belarusian officials.

Lukashenko's rise to power began in 1990 when he was elected to the Supreme Soviet of the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. He later assumed the position of head of the interim anti-corruption committee of the Supreme Council of Belarus, during which he accused 70 senior government officials of corruption. In 1994, he won the country's inaugural presidential election, campaigning as an independent on a populist platform.

Lukashenko's early economic policies aimed to prevent the issues that occurred in other post-Soviet states, such as mass unemployment and the establishment of oligarchic structures. He maintained state ownership of key industries in Belarus, which spared the country from recessions as devastating as those in other post-Soviet states. However, this also resulted in increased isolation from the West and greater dependence on Russia.

Lukashenko's rule has been marked by a series of controversial decisions and policies. In 1995, he held a referendum that abandoned the country's new national flag in favour of one similar to what Belarus had used as a Soviet republic. He also pushed for forming a new union state with Russia, hoping to become its head after a full merger.

Under Lukashenko, Belarus has retained capital punishment, with executions carried out by a shot to the back of the head. This has been condemned by international human rights organisations. In addition, several prominent critics and opposition figures have disappeared or been imprisoned during his rule.

In recent years, Lukashenko's relationship with Russia has become strained due to his support for the war in Ukraine. He allowed Russian forces to use Belarusian territory to invade Ukraine and agreed to host some of Russia's tactical nuclear weapons. This has led to increased tensions with Western countries and further isolation from the international community.

Lukashenko's support of Putin

Several sources suggest that Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, has fled the country. Lukashenko is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and his departure from Belarus comes amidst rumours of an imminent coup in Russia.

Now, onto Lukashenko's support of Putin.

Alexander Lukashenko has been a key supporter of Vladimir Putin and his war in Ukraine. Belarus has been far from detached from the conflict, with Lukashenko allowing the Kremlin to use his country's territory to invade Ukraine in February 2022. In addition, Russia moved a batch of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus in June 2023. Lukashenko has stated that he is “completely ready” to deploy these weapons if provoked, but only if a foreign soldier were to step into Belarus.

Lukashenko has also played a crucial role in brokering deals to support Putin's interests. In 2023, he negotiated with Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group of mercenaries, with the agreement of Putin, to end the Wagner Group rebellion. Lukashenko allowed some Wagner soldiers into Belarus and claimed that he prevented the obliteration of the group, which Putin desired after the mutiny. Lukashenko's role in this crisis elevated his international standing.

Lukashenko has also supported Putin's interests in other ways. In 2023, he facilitated the advancement of joint Russian and Belarusian military relations during the Zapad 2017 military exercises. Lukashenko has also expressed his willingness to deploy Russian nuclear weapons housed in his country if provoked. He stated that he would only do so if a foreign soldier entered Belarus and that he had no plans to attack anyone.

Lukashenko's relationship with Putin and Russia has resulted in increased dependence and isolation from the West. This reliance has intensified due to sanctions imposed by Western governments on Lukashenko for his suppression of opponents and limits on media freedom. Lukashenko has also been crucial in creating the Union State of Russia and Belarus, enabling free travel, work, and study between the two countries for their citizens.

Lukashenko's support for Putin and Russia has been consistent, despite some disagreements related to trade. However, their relationship has experienced tensions, with Russia cutting economic subsidies to Belarus in 2020 after Lukashenko accused Putin of trying to make Belarus a part of Russia. Despite this, Lukashenko remains a key ally of Putin and continues to support Russia's war efforts in Ukraine.

Lukashenko's future

As of June 2023, there were reports that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Vladimir Putin, had fled the country. This came after rumours of an imminent coup and mercenaries from the Wagner Group threatening to take Moscow. Lukashenko's plane was spotted over Turkey, and he was believed to have fled after the Wagner Group mercenaries entered Russia.

One possibility is that Lukashenko could seek exile in a country that would be willing to offer him refuge. Given his close relationship with Putin, he may attempt to seek refuge in Russia or another country sympathetic to his regime. However, with his reputation as a dictator and human rights violator, his options for exile may be limited.

Another possibility is that Lukashenko could attempt to regain control of Belarus and suppress any opposition or dissent. He has ruled the country with an iron fist since 1994 and has a history of stifling dissent through brutal repressions. He may try to leverage his relationship with Putin and Russia's military support to maintain his grip on power.

However, there are also signs that Lukashenko's support system may be weakening. There have been reports of health issues, with speculation about his well-being after he missed several scheduled appearances. Opposition figures and analysts have warned that a serious illness could destabilize Belarus, as the country's stability is heavily dependent on Lukashenko's personalist regime.

Additionally, there is growing opposition to Lukashenko's regime, both domestically and internationally. The European Union and the United States have imposed sanctions on Belarus over human rights violations and its role in the Ukraine conflict. The exiled Belarusian opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, has actively campaigned against Lukashenko and sought to mobilize Belarusians to oppose the Ukraine war. She has framed the struggle as linked to Ukraine's fight for independence and has called for civil disobedience and sabotage.

The outcome of Lukashenko's future will depend on various factors, including his health, the strength of the opposition, and the level of international support he receives. If he remains in power, it is likely that he will continue to face challenges from both domestic and international forces seeking to hold him accountable for human rights abuses and his role in the Ukraine conflict.

In conclusion, Lukashenko's future is difficult to predict, but it is clear that his regime is facing significant challenges and that his options may be narrowing as international pressure mounts and domestic opposition grows.

Frequently asked questions