The Afghan Conundrum: A Post-Cold War Legacy

Afghanistan's history has been marked by domination by foreign conquerors and strife among internally warring factions. In the late 1970s, Afghanistan's centrist government was overthrown by left-wing military officers, leading to the rise of a communist government. This sparked insurgencies among tribal and urban groups, collectively known as the Mujahideen, who were backed by the United States. In 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan to support the communist government, marking the beginning of a brutal civil war that lasted nearly a decade. The Soviet invasion was motivated by the desire to maintain a friendly socialist government on its border and uphold the Brezhnev Doctrine, which stated that once a country became socialist, Moscow would not allow it to return to the capitalist camp. The invasion resulted in massive loss of life and displacement, with an estimated 1 million civilians and 125,000 combatants killed, and millions more fleeing the country. The war also wreaked havoc on the Soviet economy and national prestige, contributing to the eventual collapse of the USSR.

The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979

On Christmas Eve 1979, the Soviet Union began its invasion of Afghanistan, its southern neighbour. The Soviets air-dropped elite troops into principal Afghan cities and deployed armoured divisions across the border. Within days, the KGB, which had infiltrated the Afghan presidential palace, poisoned the president and his ministers, installing a new puppet leader, Babrak Karmal.

The invasion was the culmination of growing Soviet domination in Afghanistan, which began in 1955 when Moscow started providing military training and equipment to the country. By 1973, a third of active Afghan troops had trained on Soviet soil.

The Soviets wanted to prop up the new but faltering pro-Soviet government in Kabul, led by Karmal. However, Karmal was unable to attain significant popular support, and the country descended into civil war. The Soviets left the suppression of the rebellion to the Afghan army, which was largely ineffective due to mass desertions.

The Soviet invasion triggered a brutal nine-year civil war in Afghanistan and contributed significantly to the USSR's collapse. It also set the stage for the Taliban's takeover of the country in 1996.

The rise of the Mujahideen

The Mujahideen were formed of numerous groups with differing ethnic and ideological backgrounds, but they were united by their anti-communist and pro-Islamic goals. They were recruited and organised immediately after the Soviet invasion, initially from the regular Afghan population and defectors from the Afghan military. The militants aimed to wage an armed struggle against the communist government of the People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan and the Soviet Union, which had invaded the country to support the former.

The Mujahideen were generally divided into two distinct alliances: the larger Sunni Islamic union, known as the "Peshawar Seven", based in Pakistan, and the smaller Shia Islamic union, known as the "Tehran Eight", based in Iran. There were also independent units that referred to themselves as "Mujahideen". The basic units of the Mujahideen reflected the highly decentralised nature of Afghan society and strong loci of competing Pashtun tribal groups.

The Mujahideen received aid from the Pakistani, American, British, Chinese, and Saudi governments, as well as private donors and sympathetic Muslims worldwide. The quality of their arms and combat organisation gradually improved due to experience and the large quantity of arms and other war matériel they received. The Mujahideen also benefited from an indeterminate number of Muslim volunteers, popularly termed "Afghan-Arabs", who travelled from all parts of the world to join their war effort.

The Mujahideen caused serious casualties to the Soviet forces and made the war very costly for the Soviet Union. In 1989, the Soviet Union withdrew its forces from Afghanistan, and the Mujahideen took control of Kabul, forming a new government. However, the Mujahideen government quickly fractured as rival factions fought for power, leading to another civil war and the rise of the Taliban.

The formation of Al-Qaeda

The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 and the subsequent decade-long conflict had a profound impact on the country and the region. The invasion triggered a brutal civil war that claimed the lives of countless Afghans and contributed to the rise of extremist groups such as the Taliban and Al-Qaeda.

Al-Qaeda, which means "the base" in Arabic, was formed by Osama bin Laden and other Arab fighters in the late 1980s during the Soviet-Afghan War. Bin Laden, a wealthy Saudi Arabian, provided money, weapons, and fighters to the Mujahideen, the Islamic guerrillas fighting against the Soviet Union.

Following the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989, Al-Qaeda dispersed but continued to oppose what it considered corrupt Islamic regimes and foreign influence in Muslim lands. Bin Laden, exiled from Saudi Arabia and stripped of his citizenship, set up operations in Sudan and later returned to Afghanistan under the protection of the Taliban.

Al-Qaeda established training camps in Afghanistan and other countries, recruiting Muslims from around the world to fight jihad. The group issued fatwas, or religious rulings, calling for attacks on American troops in Saudi Arabia and Somalia.

In 1996, Bin Laden announced a fatwa, or religious decree, against the United States, declaring a holy war. This was followed by another fatwa in 1998, calling on Muslims to kill Americans and their allies worldwide.

Al-Qaeda merged with other militant Islamist organizations, including the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, and carried out numerous terrorist attacks, including the bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 and the attack on the U.S.S. Cole in Yemen in 2000.

The group gained infamy for its role in the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, which killed nearly 3,000 people. This led to the U.S. War in Afghanistan and a global counterterrorism campaign targeting Al-Qaeda and its leaders.

Despite setbacks and leadership losses, Al-Qaeda remains a resilient organization with affiliates worldwide. It continues to aspire to establish a pan-Islamic caliphate and poses a persistent threat to the United States and its interests abroad.

The Taliban's rise to power

The Taliban first appeared in Kandahar in the spring and summer of 1994, committing vigilante acts against minor warlords. They soon began to receive backing from local Durrani Pashtun leaders, giving them legitimacy. Their initial aim was to bring back the exiled former King Mohammed Zahir Shah. Mohammed Omar, a former mujahideen fighter, became the head of the movement's supreme council.

The Taliban were based in the Helmand, Kandahar, and Uruzgan regions and were predominantly ethnic Pashtuns. They enjoyed enormous goodwill from Afghans weary of the corruption, brutality, and incessant fighting of Mujahideen warlords. The Taliban's rise was also aided by support from Pakistan, which saw the group as a way to exert influence in Afghanistan and counter Indian power in the region. Pakistan's intelligence services, the ISI, provided military and financial support, as well as training and logistical aid.

By late 1996, the Taliban had seized control of Kabul and gained effective control over about two-thirds of the country. They imposed a strict interpretation of Islamic law, which included harsh criminal punishments and the near-total exclusion of women from public life. The Taliban's rule was brutal and repressive, and they were only recognised as the legitimate government by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

The Taliban's rule was not universally accepted, and they faced significant resistance, particularly from non-Pashtun ethnic groups such as the Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara. In 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan and quickly overthrew the Taliban regime, driving them out of power. However, the Taliban survived and regrouped, eventually retaking control of the country in 2021 following the withdrawal of US and NATO forces.

The US-led Afghanistan War (2001-2014)

The second phase, from 2002 until 2008, was marked by a US strategy of defeating the Taliban militarily and rebuilding core institutions of the Afghan state. The US remained committed to counter-terrorism operations and building a new Afghan army. However, the focus on Iraq and the failure to adequately fund development efforts in Afghanistan hampered progress.

The third phase began in 2008 and accelerated with President Barack Obama's decision to temporarily increase US troop presence in Afghanistan. The larger force was used to implement a strategy of protecting the population from Taliban attacks and reintegrating insurgents into Afghan society. The strategy was coupled with a timetable for the withdrawal of foreign forces, which began in 2011. However, the new approach largely failed to achieve its aims, with insurgent attacks and civilian casualties remaining high.

By the time the US and NATO combat mission formally ended in December 2014, the Afghanistan War had become the longest war in US history. American military casualties included some 2,400 service members killed and about 20,700 others wounded. Despite the US-led efforts, the Taliban remained a potent force and retook control of Afghanistan in 2021.

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