The Conflict Between Azerbaijan And Armenia: What's Happening?

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is an ethnic and territorial dispute over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but has been predominantly inhabited by ethnic Armenians. The conflict has its roots in the aftermath of World War I and escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, resulting in hundreds of thousands of refugees and casualties. Despite a Russian-brokered ceasefire in 1994, tensions and hostilities have persisted, with the most recent major escalation occurring in 2020, leading to thousands of deaths and a significant Azerbaijani victory. The conflict has also drawn in regional powers, with Turkey providing military support to Azerbaijan, and Russia attempting to mediate and maintain influence in the region. The conflict has resulted in a protracted stalemate, with neither side able to achieve a decisive victory, and the status of Nagorno-Karabakh remains unresolved, fuelling ongoing tensions and the risk of further escalation.

The conflict is over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but with a majority ethnic Armenian population

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but has a majority ethnic Armenian population. The region has been at the heart of one of the world's longest-running conflicts, with the first Nagorno-Karabakh war taking place from 1988 to 1994.

In 1923, the Soviet Union established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, which had a 95% ethnically Armenian population, within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. In 1988, the region's legislature passed a resolution to join the Republic of Armenia, despite its official location within Azerbaijan. This led to armed fighting between the two republics, which have a long history of ethnic tension.

Amid the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Nagorno-Karabakh officially declared independence, and full-scale war erupted. The first war resulted in roughly thirty thousand casualties and hundreds of thousands of refugees. By 1993, Armenia had gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh and occupied 20% of Azerbaijan's geographic area. A Russian-brokered ceasefire, known as the Bishkek Protocol, was signed in 1994, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh de facto independent, with a self-proclaimed government in Stepanakert, but still heavily reliant on close economic, political, and military ties with Armenia.

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War took place in 2020 and lasted 44 days, resulting in an Azerbaijani victory. The war was marked by the deployment of drones, heavy artillery, missile strikes, and state propaganda. Despite mediation attempts by Russia, France, and the United States, three ceasefires failed to stop the conflict. The capture of Shusha, the second-largest city in Nagorno-Karabakh, led to a ceasefire agreement on November 10, 2020, ending all hostilities. Approximately 2,000 Russian soldiers were deployed as peacekeeping forces to monitor the Lachin corridor, a transit route connecting Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

Despite the ceasefire, tensions and skirmishes continued in the region. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched an "anti-terrorist" offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in the displacement of most of the region's population to Armenia. The enclave was officially dissolved on January 1, 2024, and Azerbaijan plans to "reintegrate" the region and its remaining population.

The conflict has resulted in two wars since the collapse of the Soviet Union

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh has resulted in two wars since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The First Nagorno-Karabakh War took place from 1988 to 1994, and the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War occurred in 2020. Both conflicts were marked by heavy bloodshed and resulted in thousands of casualties and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people.

The First Nagorno-Karabakh War began in the late 1980s when the regional legislature of Nagorno-Karabakh, which was then an autonomous oblast within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic, passed a resolution declaring its intention to join the Republic of Armenia. This sparked armed fighting between the two Soviet republics, which had a long history of ethnic tension. As the Soviet Union began to dissolve in 1991, Nagorno-Karabakh officially declared its independence, and full-scale war erupted. The war resulted in roughly thirty thousand casualties and the displacement of approximately 725,000 Azerbaijanis and 300,000-500,000 Armenians. By 1993, Armenia had gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh and occupied 20% of Azerbaijan's geographic area. A Russian-brokered ceasefire, known as the Bishkek Protocol, was signed in 1994, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh de facto independent and heavily reliant on economic, political, and military ties with Armenia.

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War took place in 2020 and was a major escalation of the unresolved conflict over the region. The war lasted 44 days and resulted in an Azerbaijani victory, with the defeat igniting anti-government protests in Armenia. The conflict was characterised by the use of drones, heavy artillery, missile strikes, and state propaganda. It began with an Azerbaijani offensive along the line of contact established in the aftermath of the First Nagorno-Karabakh War. Clashes were particularly intense in the less mountainous districts of southern Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey provided military support to Azerbaijan, while Armenia traditionally had good relations with Russia. The war resulted in thousands of casualties and the displacement of tens of thousands of people. A Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement was signed on November 10, 2020, ending the hostilities and resulting in a significant shift in the control of territories in and around Nagorno-Karabakh. Approximately 2,000 Russian soldiers were deployed as peacekeeping forces to monitor the ceasefire.

The first war, from 1988-1994, resulted in roughly 30,000 casualties and hundreds of thousands of refugees

The First Nagorno-Karabakh War, also known as the Artsakh Liberation War, was an armed conflict that took place from February 1988 to May 1994. It resulted in roughly 30,000 casualties and hundreds of thousands of refugees. The war was fought in the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in southwestern Azerbaijan, between the majority ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, backed by Armenia, and the Republic of Azerbaijan, with support from Turkey.

The conflict was an ethnic and territorial one, with a long history of ethnic tension between the two republics. In 1923, the Soviet Union established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, which was home to a 95% ethnically Armenian population, within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. In 1988, Nagorno-Karabakh's regional legislature passed a resolution declaring its intention to join the Republic of Armenia, despite its official location within Azerbaijan. This led to armed fighting between the two republics.

The demand to unify with Armenia began in a relatively peaceful manner in 1988, but as the Soviet Union disintegrated, it gradually grew into an increasingly violent conflict between ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis. This resulted in ethnic cleansing, including the Sumgait and Baku pogroms directed against Armenians, and the Gugark pogrom and Khojaly Massacre directed against Azerbaijanis.

Full-scale fighting erupted in early 1992, with Turkey sending mercenaries to fight for Azerbaijan and assisting in blockading trade to Armenia, including humanitarian aid. International mediation attempts failed to bring about a resolution. In early 1993, Armenian forces captured seven Azerbaijani-majority districts outside the enclave itself, threatening the involvement of other countries in the region. By the end of the war in 1994, the Armenians were in full control of the enclave, as well as surrounding Azerbaijani territories, most notably the Lachin corridor, a mountain pass that links Nagorno-Karabakh with mainland Armenia.

The war resulted in a high number of casualties and refugees. Approximately 724,000 Azerbaijanis were expelled from Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and the surrounding territories, while 300,000-500,000 Armenians living in Azerbaijan or Armenian border areas were displaced. The conflict also left the Nagorno-Karabakh area in a state of legal limbo, with the Republic of Artsakh remaining de facto independent but internationally unrecognized.

The second war, in 2020, was marked by the deployment of drones, heavy artillery and missile strikes, and resulted in thousands of deaths

The second war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020, also known as the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, was characterised by the deployment of drones, heavy artillery, missile strikes, and state propaganda. The conflict resulted in thousands of deaths and casualties, with both sides employing a range of military tactics and weaponry.

The use of drones played a crucial role in the conflict, with Azerbaijan's widespread use of drones seen as a decisive factor in the outcome. Drones were utilised for reconnaissance and strike operations, enabling Azerbaijani forces to locate and target Armenian positions, as well as cut off their supply lines. This tactic involved using reconnaissance drones to identify Armenian positions and reserve forces, followed by shelling and strikes to isolate the positions before moving in ground forces to overwhelm the defenders. This strategy effectively eroded Armenian defences and allowed Azerbaijan to make gradual territorial gains.

Heavy artillery and missile strikes were also extensively used by both sides. Azerbaijani forces employed long-range heavy artillery and missile strikes to target Armenian positions and critical infrastructure, such as the destruction of a bridge in the Lachin Corridor, a vital supply route. Armenian forces retaliated with artillery and missile strikes on Azerbaijani cities, including Ganja, resulting in civilian casualties.

In addition to drones and artillery, both sides deployed armoured formations, tanks, and infantry in their ground offensives. Azerbaijani ground forces included armoured formations supported by artillery and drones, which were able to make limited territorial gains in the initial stages of the conflict. Armenian and Artsakh troops employed anti-tank guided missiles and artillery to inflict significant losses on Azerbaijani armoured vehicles, but they ultimately had to retreat from their defensive positions.

The conflict also involved information warfare, with both sides utilising official social media accounts and mainstream media to spread propaganda and shape the narrative. Azerbaijan made effective use of drone footage to showcase their military successes, broadcasting high-resolution footage of strikes against Armenian targets on digital billboards in Baku.

The deployment of drones, heavy artillery, and missile strikes in the second Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in a high number of casualties and deaths. Officially, thousands of soldiers and civilians were killed, with both sides downplaying their own losses while exaggerating those of their enemy. The actual number of casualties is believed to be higher than reported, and the conflict also caused significant displacement, with tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians fleeing the region.

The conflict has been influenced by regional powers, including Turkey, Russia, and Western nations

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh has been influenced by several regional powers, including Turkey, Russia, and Western nations.

Turkey is widely considered to be Azerbaijan's main supporter in the conflict. It has provided extensive diplomatic and military support to Azerbaijan, and the two countries share strong ethnic, cultural, and historic ties. Turkey has also supplied weapons to Azerbaijan and conducted joint military exercises with the country. The Turkish-backed unrecognized Northern Cyprus has also supported Azerbaijan. Turkey's involvement in the conflict has been described by Armenians as a continuation of the Armenian genocide, given Turkey's continued denial of the mass murder and expulsion of Armenians by the Ottoman government.

Russia has officially maintained a neutral stance and has sought to mediate between the two sides. However, Russia is also Armenia's primary arms supplier and the two countries are military allies. Russia has provided military assistance to Armenia in the past, and it has a military base in the country as part of a military alliance. Despite this, Russia has also sold weapons to Azerbaijan, and in 2022, it suspended arms deliveries to Armenia.

Western nations, including the United States, have also been involved in the conflict. The US has provided military aid to both Armenia and Azerbaijan, although there have been accusations of inconsistent policies and support for Azerbaijan's territorial integrity while also backing Armenia's irredentist policies. The US has also provided humanitarian aid to the region. Additionally, the US, along with France and Russia, has been part of the OSCE Minsk Group, which has mediated peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan since 1994.

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