Who Does Iran Support? Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Explained

The topic of whether Iran is aligned with Armenia or Azerbaijan is a complex and multifaceted issue. Iran shares cultural, historical, and religious ties with both countries. However, political, economic, and strategic factors have influenced the dynamics between these nations.

Iran has a complex relationship with its neighbouring countries, Armenia and Azerbaijan. All three countries share borders, with Iran having a significant Azeri-speaking community and a smaller Armenian community within its borders. Historically, the territory of the present-day Republic of Azerbaijan was a part of various Iranian/Persian empires, and the South Caucasus region has been influenced by Iranian culture for millennia. Iran officially recognised the independence of the Republic of Azerbaijan in 1991, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and diplomatic relations were established in 1992. Both countries are majority Shia Muslim, with Iran and Azerbaijan having the highest and second-highest Shia populations in the world, respectively. However, there are political differences and tensions between the two countries. While the Republic of Azerbaijan has moved towards pro-Western alliances, Iran maintains a pro-Russian and pro-Chinese stance due to its hostility towards the United States. Additionally, Iran has expressed concerns about the Republic of Azerbaijan's close military ties with Israel, which is a major weapons supplier to the country.

On the other hand, Iran and Armenia also have a complex relationship. Iran has close ties with Armenia, as it shares a more than three-decade-old conflict with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Iran has warned Azerbaijan against attacking Armenia and expressed concerns about the potential closure of its gateway to Europe through Armenian territory. However, tensions arose in 2023 when a gunman attacked the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran, killing a diplomat and wounding two security guards. This incident soured relations between the two countries.

In recent years, Iran has played a role in facilitating dialogue and peace efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, hosting talks between their foreign ministers in Tehran in October 2023. Despite the complexities and tensions, Iran's foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, emphasised the historic opportunity for peace and cooperation in the region, stating that the war in South Caucasus has ended, and it is time for peace and cooperation.

Iran's stance on geopolitical changes in the Caucasus region

Iran has historically maintained a neutral stance on geopolitical changes in the Caucasus region, advocating for peace and stability while opposing any changes to internationally recognised borders and the geopolitical status quo. However, recent developments have challenged this neutrality.

Iran's Stance on the Caucasus Region

Iran has traditionally sought to maintain a balanced approach in the Caucasus region, advocating for peace and stability while opposing any changes to internationally recognised borders and the geopolitical status quo. In September 2024, an aide to Iran's foreign minister expressed Tehran's support for regional peace and its opposition to any changes in the geopolitical status quo. This stance was reiterated in a meeting with the Russian ambassador to Tehran, where both parties emphasised the need to respect national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and mutual interests as guarantors of sustainable peace and regional cooperation.

Geopolitical Changes in the Caucasus Region

The Caucasus region has witnessed several geopolitical changes in recent years, including Azerbaijan's reconquest of Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. These developments have had a significant impact on Iran's relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Iran-Armenia Relations

Iran has close ties with Armenia, sharing a history, religion, and culture. However, Armenia's recent cultivation of security ties with Western powers, including France and the United States, has strained relations with Iran. Additionally, Armenia's intention to apply for membership in the European Union stands to be a lasting irritant in Yerevan's ties with Tehran, as it would require major changes in Armenia's foreign policy, including the scrapping of its visa-free regime with Iran.

Iran-Azerbaijan Relations

Iran and Azerbaijan have historically had a prickly relationship, but recent developments have led to a rapprochement between the two countries. The changed geopolitical environment, particularly Azerbaijan's improved relations with Israel and the West, has pushed Iran to smooth over differences with Azerbaijan. This is evident in the normalisation of diplomatic relations and the signing of agreements such as the construction of the Aras corridor, a rail link connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave via Iranian territory.

Impact on Iran's Stance

While Iran maintains its official stance of neutrality and support for regional peace, the evolving dynamics in the Caucasus region have made it increasingly challenging for Iran to balance its relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan. Iran's traditional ties with Armenia are under strain due to Armenia's pivot towards Western powers, while its relationship with Azerbaijan is improving despite historical tensions and Azerbaijan's strong strategic relationship with Israel.

In conclusion, while Iran officially advocates for peace and stability in the Caucasus region and opposes geopolitical changes, the evolving dynamics between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and external powers like Russia and the West have made it difficult for Iran to maintain its neutral stance.

The historical relationship between Iran and Azerbaijan

The historical region of Azerbaijan is located in northwestern Iran and shares a border with Iraq and Turkey to the west, and Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the Azerbaijani exclave of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic to the north. Iranian Azerbaijan is comprised of the West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan, and Ardabil provinces, with some authors also including Zanjan. The region is predominantly populated by Azerbaijanis, with minority populations of Kurds, Armenians, Tats, Talysh, Assyrians, and Persians.

Historically, the territory of the present-day Republic of Azerbaijan was a part of various Iranian/Persian empires, including the Median, Achaemenid, Parthian, Sassanid, Safavid, and Qajar dynasties. In the early 19th century, Qajar Iran ceded its territories in the North Caucasus and Transcaucasia, including modern-day Azerbaijan, to the Russian Empire following military defeats and the Russo-Persian Wars. This marked the beginning of the separation of Iranian Azerbaijan and the territory that would become the Republic of Azerbaijan.

Despite the separation, Iranian Azerbaijan and the Republic of Azerbaijan continue to share cultural, religious, and historical ties. Both countries have majority Shia Muslim populations, with Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan having the highest and second-highest Shia populations in the world, respectively. Additionally, the Azerbaijani language is widely spoken in Iranian Azerbaijan, and the region has a rich history of Azerbaijani poetry and literature.

However, there have also been tensions and conflicts between Iranian Azerbaijan and the Republic of Azerbaijan. One significant dispute arose over the use of the name "Azerbaijan," which was traditionally associated with the region in northwestern Iran. In 1918, the Musavat government of the newly established Azerbaijan Democratic Republic adopted the name "Azerbaijan" for political reasons, despite opposition from Iranian intellectuals and elites. This naming decision has been a source of ongoing controversy and has contributed to complex relations between the two countries.

The role of Israel in Iran-Azerbaijan relations

Historical Context

Azerbaijan and Israel established diplomatic relations in 1992 following Azerbaijan's independence from the Soviet Union. This marked the beginning of a strategic partnership that has grown over the years. On the other hand, Iran-Israel relations have gone through different phases, ranging from ambivalent to friendly and eventually deteriorating after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which led to a severance of diplomatic and commercial ties.

Competing Interests

Israel and Azerbaijan share a majority Muslim population and have developed strong economic and security ties. Israel is a leading foreign provider of weapons to Azerbaijan, and it has also become a top oil customer for the country. Additionally, both countries have established intelligence-sharing mechanisms. In contrast, Iran has long accused Azerbaijan of striking too-close-for-comfort ties with Israel, its top foe.

Impact of Regional Conflicts

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region has been a significant factor influencing the dynamics. Israel has supported Azerbaijan in this conflict, while Iran has traditionally favored Armenia. However, following the decisive Azerbaijani victories in 2020 and 2023, with the help of Israel and Turkey, Iran has sought to recalibrate its approach and improve relations with Baku.

Geopolitical Realignments

Azerbaijan's growing partnership with Israel and its pro-Western alignment have caused tensions with Iran, which is largely pro-Russian and pro-Chinese. Iran's hostility towards the US and the sanctions imposed on it have further pushed Azerbaijan towards Israel and other Western allies. Meanwhile, Iran has sought to mend ties with Saudi Arabia through a China-brokered deal.

Underlying Tensions and Mutual Accusations

Underlying tensions persist between Azerbaijan and Iran, with both countries accusing each other of stoking unrest. Iran has a history of establishing ties with militias consisting of Shiite Muslims, while Azerbaijan has cracked down on pro-Iranian religious communities within its borders. Additionally, Iran has contended with internal unrest tied to its sizable Azeri minority, with groups seeking to unify with Azerbaijan.

Recent Developments

Despite the tensions, Iran and Azerbaijan have taken steps towards reconciliation, driven by a mutual desire for regional stability and economic prospects, particularly the proposed International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). However, the quietly growing relations between Azerbaijan and Israel continue to haunt the dynamic, with Iran concerned about the establishment of a "second Israel" in the Caucasus.

The impact of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on Iran-Armenia relations

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has had a significant impact on Iran-Armenia relations. Iran has historically maintained a neutral stance in the conflict, calling for a peaceful resolution and expressing support for Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. However, in recent years, Iran's relations with Armenia have become strained due to several factors.

Firstly, Iran has warned Armenia against attacking Azerbaijan, citing concerns for its gateway to Europe through Armenian territory. This warning came after Azerbaijan's recapture of the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh in October 2023, which resulted in the exodus of most of the region's 120,000 ethnic Armenians. Armenia accused Azerbaijan of ethnic cleansing, while Azerbaijan claimed that the Armenians left voluntarily and were welcome to return.

Secondly, Iran has long been concerned about Azerbaijan's close military ties with Israel, which is the main arms supplier to Baku. Iran's relations with Israel have been tense due to Israel's alignment with the United States and other Western countries. Iran's concerns escalated in February 2012 when Azerbaijan signed a $1.6 billion defense deal with Israel, which included the acquisition of advanced military equipment.

Thirdly, Iran's support for Armenia during the first Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988-1994) has not been forgotten in Azerbaijan. Iran sided with Armenia and provided vital backing, fearing Baku's intentions to fuel secessionist sentiments among Iranian Azerbaijanis. This support for Armenia has continued despite Azerbaijan's growing power projection, further straining relations between the two countries.

Additionally, there have been incidents of cross-border clashes and violations of the ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. These clashes have resulted in casualties on both sides and have contributed to the tense relationship between Iran and Armenia.

Furthermore, Iran's decision to host talks between Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in Tehran in October 2023 was seen as a positive step towards improving relations. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi offered to assist in resolving the disputes between the two countries, acknowledging Iran's strong and influential position in the region.

However, Iran's relations with Armenia continue to be influenced by the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and its aftermath. The conflict has resulted in a significant number of refugees and displaced people, with over 100,000 ethnic Armenians fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh after Azerbaijan's offensive in September 2023. Iran's proximity to the conflict zone and its shared borders with both Armenia and Azerbaijan put it in a delicate position, requiring a careful balancing act to maintain stability in the region.

In conclusion, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has had a significant impact on Iran-Armenia relations. While Iran has officially maintained a neutral stance, its relations with Armenia have been strained due to concerns over regional stability, military alliances, and the ongoing dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Iran's support for Armenia during the first Nagorno-Karabakh War and its warnings against attacking Azerbaijan have further complicated its relationship with both countries. The ongoing efforts for a peaceful resolution and Iran's role as a mediator will continue to shape the dynamics between Iran, Armenia, and Azerbaijan in the region.

The implications of the Zangezur land corridor for Iran and Azerbaijan

The Zangezur Corridor is a proposed transport link between Azerbaijan and its exclave, the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. The corridor would pass through Armenian territory without any Armenian checkpoints or border controls.

The Zangezur Corridor has been a source of tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia, with the latter objecting to the proposal, arguing that it deviates from the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement and is a form of propaganda. There are also concerns in Iran that the corridor could block its border with Armenia and limit its access to Europe and the rest of the world.

The implications of the Zangezur Corridor for Iran and Azerbaijan are complex and multifaceted. On the one hand, the completion of the corridor could have economic benefits for Iran, as it would facilitate trade and increase political integration in the region. It would also provide a secure transit route and enhance stability in the Caucasus region, which is in Iran's interests. Additionally, the corridor could enhance Iran's access to the Caucasus region and beyond, particularly through the Jolfa Iron Bridge and the Nakhchivan Railway.

On the other hand, there are concerns in Iran that the corridor could reduce Tehran's influence and be used as a tool to advance Turkish and Israeli interests in the region. Some Iranian officials fear that the corridor could be used to advance anti-Iranian policies and provide Turkish or Israeli guarantees to Azerbaijan. There is also a view in Iran that the corridor could be part of a larger geopolitical project, known as the "Turan Corridor," which is allegedly supported by NATO, Israel, and Turkey. This corridor is seen as an attempt to encircle and disintegrate Iran, Russia, and China by bringing NATO to their borders.

Furthermore, the Zangezur Corridor could have implications for Iran's relationship with Russia. There are concerns that Russia's support for the corridor is a preemptive move to prevent the formation of communication channels between the new Iranian government and the US. Additionally, the corridor could reduce Iran's leverage in the region, as Azerbaijan would no longer need to pass through Iran to reach Nakhchivan.

The Zangezur Corridor has the potential to significantly impact the geopolitical dynamics in the region, and its implications for Iran and Azerbaijan are multifaceted and complex. While it may bring economic benefits and enhance stability, there are also concerns about reduced influence, the advancement of anti-Iranian policies, and the potential for it to be used as a tool by external powers.

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