Trump's Afghanistan Conundrum: Will He Show Resolve Or Retreat?

In 2017, former US President Donald Trump stated that his administration would seek an honourable and enduring outcome in Afghanistan. He committed to a shift from a time-based approach to one based on conditions, refusing to announce in advance the dates of military operations. Trump's administration negotiated a deal with the Taliban to withdraw all US forces by May 1, 2021. However, critics argue that this deal undermined the Afghan government and that the Taliban failed to uphold their commitments. Trump's successor, President Biden, inherited this deal and faced the challenge of deciding whether to honour it or risk escalating the conflict by sending more troops. Ultimately, Biden chose to follow through with the withdrawal, marking an end to America's longest war.

Trump's deal to end the war in Afghanistan

The deal was criticised for excluding the Afghan government, and for the Taliban's continued attacks on Afghan government forces. Despite this, the Trump administration upheld the pact, reducing U.S. troop levels from 13,000 to 2,500.

The deal was inherited by the Biden administration, who delayed the withdrawal date to August 31. Biden acknowledged that he would have tried to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan even if Trump had not struck a deal with the Taliban.

The US-Taliban peace deal

On February 29, 2020, the United States and the Taliban signed a peace deal to end the eighteen-year war in Afghanistan. The agreement was negotiated by the Trump administration and included the Taliban but not the Afghan government. The deal was conditional on the Taliban cutting ties with Al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. It addressed four main issues:

• Ceasefire: Negotiators agreed to a temporary reduction in violence and said that a lasting ceasefire among U.S., Taliban, and Afghan forces would be part of intra-Afghan negotiations.
• Withdrawal of foreign forces: The U.S. agreed to reduce its troops in Afghanistan from 12,000 to 8,600 within 135 days. If the Taliban followed through on its commitments, all U.S. and other foreign troops would leave Afghanistan within 14 months.
• Intra-Afghan negotiations: The Taliban agreed to start talks with the Afghan government in March 2020.
• Counterterrorism assurances: The Taliban guaranteed that Afghanistan would not be used by any of its members or terrorist groups to threaten the security of the U.S. and its allies.

The agreement was the first step to achieving lasting peace, with the bigger challenge being a peace agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government. The intra-Afghan talks were off to a precarious start due to a dispute between the Afghan government and the Taliban over the release of 5,000 Taliban prisoners. The Afghan government was unhappy about the deal, and the Taliban intensified attacks on military and civilian targets as a bargaining tactic.

The deal was criticized by analysts and policymakers, who argued that it would not bring peace and stability to Afghanistan. They said that the deal was a face-saving device for the Trump administration and a gimmick to win over Trump's voter base. The deal was also criticized for not addressing any of the fundamental issues of the conflict and for undermining the legitimacy of the Afghan government.

The U.S.-Taliban peace deal was also criticized for excluding the Afghan government, which was seen as a mistake that would embolden the Taliban to increase hostilities. The Afghan government signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the U.S., in which it said it "welcomes the reduction in violence period and takes note of the U.S.-Taliban agreement." The U.S., in turn, pledged to work with the Afghan government to achieve "a sustainable negotiated agreement."

The deal was further criticized for not specifying a reduction in violence as a requirement. Despite the agreement, large numbers of Afghan troops and civilians continued to be killed or injured. The Taliban also failed to cut ties with Al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations, according to a U.N. report.

The peace deal was part of Trump's campaign promise to end the war in Afghanistan. However, experts cautioned that pulling troops out too quickly could be destabilizing and lead to civil war.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan

Trump's deal with the Taliban, negotiated in 2020, saw the US agree to withdraw all forces by May 1, 2021. This was in exchange for the Taliban's agreement not to kill Americans and to prevent terrorists from using Afghanistan as a base. However, the deal was criticised for excluding the Afghan government and for failing to address key issues such as the Taliban's ties with Al-Qaeda.

Trump's decision to withdraw from Afghanistan was influenced by his campaign promise to end the war there and his belief that the US should not be involved in nation-building. He also wanted to focus on counterterrorism and address the threat of terrorist groups beyond Afghanistan.

The US withdrawal was completed by August 2021, during the Biden administration. Biden defended the withdrawal despite the rapid collapse of the Afghan government and the Taliban's takeover. He argued that the US had achieved its core goal of degrading Al-Qaeda and that further military involvement would not have changed the outcome. Biden emphasised that the US would continue to support the Afghan people through diplomacy and humanitarian aid.

The US-Taliban agreement

The agreement was the first step to ending the war that had killed more than 157,000 people and was estimated to have cost the United States $2 trillion. The bigger challenge was achieving a peace agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government. Continued Taliban violence, a weak Afghan government, and objections by outside countries could spoil negotiations.

The agreement included a temporary reduction in violence and said that a lasting ceasefire among US, Taliban, and Afghan forces would be part of intra-Afghan negotiations. The US agreed to reduce its troops in the country from 12,000 to 8,600 within 135 days. If the Taliban followed through on its commitments, all US and other foreign troops would leave Afghanistan within fourteen months.

The Taliban agreed to start talks with the Afghan government in March 2020. Throughout the negotiating process, the Taliban had resisted direct talks with the government, calling it an American puppet. The Taliban has more recently indicated that talks are possible.

The US also sought to halt terrorist activities in the country, including by al-Qaeda and the self-proclaimed Islamic State. As part of the agreement, the Taliban guaranteed that Afghanistan will not be used by any of its members or terrorist groups to threaten the security of the United States and its allies.

The future of Afghanistan

Humanitarian Crisis: The country is facing a severe humanitarian crisis, with millions of Afghans displaced and in need of food, shelter, and medical care. The situation has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, drought, and economic collapse.

Economic Challenges: Afghanistan's economy is in a state of collapse, with high unemployment, food shortages, and a lack of access to basic services. The country relies heavily on foreign aid and remittances, which have been disrupted due to international sanctions and the withdrawal of foreign troops.

Security and Stability: The Taliban's rule remains fragile, with ongoing attacks by ISIS-K and other insurgent groups. The country also faces ethnic and tribal tensions, and the Taliban has been accused of human rights abuses, particularly against women and minority groups.

Regional Dynamics: The crisis in Afghanistan has significant geopolitical implications, with neighbouring countries such as Pakistan, Iran, and China seeking to exert influence. The US withdrawal has also shifted the regional balance of power, with Russia and China looking to fill the vacuum.

International Engagement: The international community has been providing humanitarian aid, but there are concerns that it is not enough. There are calls for a more coordinated response, including from the UN and other international organizations.

The Way Forward: The future of Afghanistan depends on a range of factors, including the ability of the Taliban to govern effectively, the level of international engagement and support, and the willingness of regional powers to cooperate in addressing the country's challenges.

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