Bolivia's Democratic Status: A Country In Transition

Bolivia is a unitary republic with a representative democratic government. It is a landlocked country in central South America, with a population of around 12 million. The country has a multiethnic population, with a mix of Amerindians, Mestizos, Europeans, Asians, and Africans. Spanish is the predominant language, although 36 indigenous languages also have official status. Bolivia gained its independence from Spain in 1825 and has since experienced periods of political instability, with a succession of military and civilian governments. The country has a history of social inequality and the marginalization of Indigenous and Afro-Bolivian populations. In recent years, there have been allegations of democratic backsliding, with concerns over electoral fraud and the concentration of executive power. Bolivia's current political landscape is characterized by division within the ruling party and confrontation between branches of government, with ongoing debates around judicial independence and representation.

Bolivia's democratic transition

• Independence and Early Challenges: Bolivia gained independence from Spain in 1825, establishing itself as an independent, democratic, and sovereign nation. However, the early years were fraught with economic crises and political instability, including military coups and countercoups.
• Commodity Boom and Revolution: In the early 20th century, Bolivia experienced a commodity boom fuelled by tin production. Despite this, poverty and inequality persisted, leading to the 1952 Revolution. This revolution brought about significant changes, including universal suffrage, agrarian reform, and the nationalization of key industries, offering prospects for economic growth and social justice.
• Return to Democracy: In 1982, Bolivia transitioned back to democracy after a period of instability (1964-1982). However, longstanding issues such as poverty, social inequality, and the marginalization of Indigenous and Afro-Bolivian populations remained unresolved.
• Election of Evo Morales: In 2006, Evo Morales became the first Indigenous president of Bolivia. He facilitated structural reforms aimed at achieving racial equality, including a new constitution in 2009 that recognized the country's diversity and the rights of its 36 Indigenous peoples. However, some Indigenous groups continued to face marginalization and the effects of natural resource exploitation.
• Irregularities and Protests: The 2019 elections under Morales' government were marred by serious irregularities, leading to his resignation and a period of crisis. Protests both for and against the government erupted, resulting in casualties. Despite a credible 2020 election, criminal proceedings against opposition members and media restrictions persisted.
• Ongoing Challenges: Bolivia continues to face political challenges, including division within the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party and confrontations between branches of government. An apparent coup attempt in June 2024 further underscores the country's fragile political situation.

The role of Evo Morales

Evo Morales was the first indigenous president of Bolivia, serving from 2006 to 2019. Morales' presidency was notable for several reasons. Firstly, he was the first leader who looked and thought like the majority of Bolivians, who are indigenous. Secondly, Morales' rise to power was remarkable because he came from a background of extreme poverty and successfully campaigned against the neo-liberal regime that had dominated Bolivian politics for decades.

Morales' presidency brought about significant changes in Bolivia. He improved the living conditions of the indigenous population, who had previously been marginalised, and reduced poverty. Under Morales, the Bolivian economy grew strongly, and the government was able to increase social spending. Morales also introduced a new constitution, which recognised the country's diversity and its 36 indigenous groups. The new constitution also allowed for self-rule for the indigenous peoples and recognised the Andean earth deity, Pachamama, instead of the Roman Catholic Church.

However, Morales' presidency was also marked by democratic backsliding and allegations of fraud in the 2019 election, which ultimately led to his resignation. Despite this, Morales' legacy is that of a champion of indigenous rights, anti-imperialism, and environmentalism.

The 2019 elections

The elections were controversial because, in 2016, a referendum had been held on whether to amend the constitution to allow presidents to run for more than two terms. The referendum was rejected by a small margin, but in 2017, the Supreme Court of Justice ruled that all public offices would have no term limits, allowing incumbent Evo Morales to run for a fourth term. Morales was the first Indigenous president of Bolivia and had held office since 2006.

Morales was declared the winner of the 2019 election with 47.08% of the vote, more than 10% ahead of his nearest competitor, former president Carlos Mesa, who received 36.51%. This meant that Morales avoided a runoff second-round vote. However, there were disputes over the transparency and legitimacy of the elections, with Morales accused of compromising the independence and integrity of the electoral system. There were also claims that the government had ignored a 2016 referendum against scrapping presidential term limits.

The Organization of American States (OAS) conducted an audit of the election, finding "clear manipulation" and significant irregularities. The European Union also released a report indicating that their observers found many irregularities and chaotic processes. However, the New York Times later reported that the initial OAS report was flawed as it relied on poor datasets and used inappropriate statistical methods.

Following the election, there were widespread protests, and Morales pledged to respect the OAS audit. On 10 November, Morales agreed to hold new elections, but hours later, he and his vice president resigned after losing support from the police, the Bolivian Workers' Center, and the military. Morales' resignation came after the Bolivian military said it would not "confront the people" over their opposition to the election results.

The interim presidency was assumed by Jeanine Áñez of the opposition Social Democratic Movement, and new elections were set to take place in September 2020 but were postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2020 elections were eventually held in October and resulted in a first-round win for Luis Arce of the Movement for Socialism, who became president.

The 2020 elections

The elections were relatively peaceful, with only minor incidents of interference reported. International observers, including from the UN, UNIORE, and the OAS, attested to the validity and transparency of the elections, with no evidence of fraud found. The European Union congratulated Bolivia for the safe conduct of the elections.

The MAS's victory can be attributed to several factors, including the desire for economic and political stability, the poor performance of the transitional government led by Jeanine Áñez, and the opposition's fragmentation and polarizing campaign. Arce's moderate and pragmatic image, as well as his success as the minister of economy and public finance, also contributed to his win.

Despite the MAS's triumph, the country remained deeply polarized, with right-wing and conservative groups in Santa Cruz disputing the election results and calling for strikes. The MAS also faced the challenge of preserving its political hegemony, as Arce had promised that Morales would not be part of the new government.

The new government, inaugurated on 8 November 2020, faced several pressing issues, including the COVID-19 pandemic, economic stagnation, and social and political polarization. Arce's government programme included short-term measures such as food basket distribution and rent support, as well as medium- and long-term plans for industrialization and resource development.

The current political situation

Bolivia is a unitary republic with a representative democratic government. The country is divided into 9 departments, 112 provinces, 327 municipalities and 1,384 cantons. The government is led by President Luis Arce, who was elected in 2020.

Bolivia has a bicameral Plurinational Legislative Assembly. The House of Representatives consists of 130 members directly elected for 5-year terms, while the Senate consists of 36 members directly elected for 5-year terms.

Bolivia has a history of political instability, with a succession of military and civilian governments. In recent years, the country has experienced significant political polarization, with protests both for and against the government. In 2019, there were allegations of electoral fraud, and former President Evo Morales resigned and went into exile. This was followed by a period of crisis and violent protests, with dozens killed and hundreds wounded.

Currently, Bolivian politics is dominated by division within the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party and confrontation between branches of government. An apparent coup attempt in June 2024 by former army chief Juan José Zúñiga has further compounded political instability. The legislative assembly has also approved a bill suspending judges of high courts whose mandates had been prolonged due to a delay in holding judicial elections, leading to confrontation between the judiciary and legislature.

Despite these challenges, Bolivia has made progress in some areas, such as women's participation and indigenous rights. The 2009 Constitution established equality between women and men, and Bolivia has one of the highest rates of female representation in parliament globally. Additionally, under Evo Morales, structural reforms were implemented to achieve racial equality, including a new constitution that recognized the country's diversity and its 36 different indigenous peoples.

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