Belarus-Russia Relations: Strong Allies Or Strategic Partners?

Belarus and Russia have historically shared close relations, with both countries constituting the supranational Union State. Russia is Belarus' largest and most important economic and political partner, and both are members of several international organisations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Eurasian Economic Union. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Belarus has drifted away from Russia, but the two countries signed a series of agreements toward economic, military, and political integration in the 1990s. In recent years, Belarus has been a key asset for Russia, and the war in Ukraine has shifted the dynamic between the two countries. Belarus has supported Russia in the invasion of Ukraine, allowing Russian forces to stage part of the invasion from its territory and providing access to military airbases. However, Belarus has also expressed a desire to maintain its independence and sovereignty, and its relationship with Russia has been described as strained at times.

Belarus and Russia's military cooperation

Belarus and Russia have a history of military cooperation, with the two countries engaging in various joint military activities and exercises. Russia operates several military bases and radars in Belarus, including the Hantsavichy Radar Station and the Vileyka VLF transmitter. The two countries also conduct regular military drills and exercises, such as the Allied Determination-2022 military drill in Gomel, Belarus, in February 2022.

Russia sees Belarus as an important buffer state in its defence strategy, particularly in relation to its Western borders and what is known as the 'Smolensk Gate' to the Moscow oblast. Moscow seeks to maintain a permanent military presence in Belarus and has established several joint training centres with the country, including one in Grodno, Belarus, which allows for a more permanent Russian presence on the Polish border. Russia has also been able to use Belarus as a staging ground for its invasion of Ukraine, with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko stating that Belarusian troops could take part in the invasion if needed.

The military cooperation between the two countries goes beyond joint exercises and bases. There are numerous agreements governing military cooperation, including the use of a radar facility in southwestern Belarus and a joint regional air defence system established in 2009. Russia has also sought to extract a military base from Belarus, and while this has not yet come to fruition, it has been able to store aircraft in the country and conduct joint tactical drills with Belarusian forces.

In recent years, the relationship between Belarus and Russia has become strained at times, particularly following the 2020 Belarusian presidential election and the arrest of 33 Russian military contractors in Minsk. However, the two countries have continued to cooperate militarily, and Russia has provided economic support to Belarus, including a $1.5 billion loan in 2020.

In summary, Belarus and Russia have a long history of military cooperation, with Russia seeing Belarus as an important buffer state in its defence strategy. While there have been tensions between the two countries, they continue to work together militarily, and Russia has been able to use Belarus as a staging ground for its invasion of Ukraine. The future of their military cooperation remains to be seen, but it is clear that it is a significant aspect of their relationship.

Belarus's stance on the Russo-Ukrainian War

Belarus has been a close ally of Russia and supported its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Belarus allowed Russian Armed Forces to conduct military drills on its territory prior to the invasion and permitted Russia to launch part of the invasion from its territory. Despite initially denying it, Belarus has also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its soil and fire at Ukrainian targets.

The involvement of Belarus in the war has been condemned by Western countries, with the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions. According to polls, the Belarusian population largely opposes the war and wants to remain neutral. There have been protests against the invasion, and hackers have targeted Belarusian government agencies and critical infrastructure.

Belarus has also participated in peace initiatives, holding Russo-Ukrainian talks on its border, although these did not result in a lasting ceasefire.

The current agenda of Belarus-Russia relations appears to be dominated by the question of whether Belarusian armed forces will be dragged into military action against Ukraine. Belarus's veteran leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has stated that Belarusian troops could take part in the invasion if needed, but as of early 2023, they have not been directly involved in the conflict.

Lukashenko's support for Russia has damaged the consensus in Belarusian society regarding support for independence, with his opponents increasingly viewing him as a figurehead of an occupational regime imposed by Russia. The war has also negatively impacted Belarus's economy, as it has lost access to key markets and been cut off from vital rents and incomes.

In summary, Belarus has played a significant role in the Russo-Ukrainian War by providing support and territory to Russia, but its direct military involvement has been limited, and there is opposition to the war within the country. The war has also had detrimental effects on Belarus's economy and society.

The impact of the war in Ukraine on Belarus-Russia relations

Belarus and Russia have shared a close political and economic relationship since the latter gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Russia is Belarus's largest and most important economic and political partner, and both countries are members of several international organisations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

However, the war in Ukraine has impacted Belarus-Russia relations in several ways. Firstly, Belarus has become a crucial supplier of military hardware, munitions, and military components to Russia. It has also served as a base for Russian military operations and participated in Russia's psychological and informational operations before new phases of the war. Additionally, Russia has stationed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has stated that Belarusian troops could join the invasion if needed.

The war has also had economic implications for Belarus-Russia relations. Due to its involvement in the war, Belarus has been subject to Western sanctions, including bans on its banks from the SWIFT global financial messaging system and freezes on ties with its central bank. These sanctions have severely impacted Belarus's economy, as they have blocked billions of euros' worth of annual exports to the EU.

Furthermore, the war has led to a deterioration in Belarus's relationship with Ukraine, which previously aimed to leverage trade with Belarus to prevent Russian encroachment on its sovereignty. Ukraine has divested from strategically important Belarusian imports, particularly petroleum products, leading to a significant decline in bilateral trade.

Finally, the war has had domestic political implications for Belarus. The anti-Western rhetoric from the Lukashenko regime has escalated, and there are concerns that Belarus will become more directly involved in the Ukrainian crisis. Opinion polls suggest growing discontent with Lukashenko's regime and ambivalence about the country's deepening relationship with Russia.

Overall, the war in Ukraine has drawn Belarus closer to Russia in terms of military cooperation and mutual dependence. However, it has also strained their relationship economically and politically, as Belarus faces the consequences of Western sanctions and deteriorating relations with Ukraine.

Public opinion in Belarus towards Russia

Belarus and Russia have historically shared close relations, with both countries constituting the supranational Union State. They are each other's largest economic and political partners, and are members of several international organisations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the United Nations.

However, public opinion in Belarus towards Russia has been shifting in recent years, with a decreasing number of Belarusian citizens feeling that a union with Russia would be advantageous. This is evidenced by a poll conducted by Prof. Andrei Vardomatski, which found that the percentage of Belarusians in favour of a union with Russia dropped from 54.8% in September 2019 to 40.4% in December 2019. This shift in sentiment is believed to be influenced by the changing rhetoric of Belarusian state media, which has become increasingly critical of Russia as its demands on Belarus have escalated.

The idea of unification with Russia is not unanimously supported by the Belarusian public. Some Belarusians fear that unification with Russia could lead to their involvement in military conflicts or bring war to Belarus in the form of terrorist attacks. Additionally, many Belarusians value their country's sovereignty and independence, seeing it as beneficial both economically and politically. This sentiment has been reflected in the actions of Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, who has resisted attempts by Russia to exert influence and control over Belarus.

Despite the close relationship between the two countries, there have been several disputes and tensions in recent years. Lukashenko has accused Russia of using oil and gas leverage to try to incorporate Belarus and has also criticised Russia's attempts to influence Belarusian elections. There have also been trade disputes, border disputes, and a relaxation of Belarus's official attitude towards dissident voices, all of which have contributed to a weakening of the once warm relationship between the two countries.

In summary, while Russia and Belarus share close relations and have historically been aligned, public opinion in Belarus towards Russia is complex and evolving. There is a growing segment of Belarusian society that values the country's independence and sovereignty and is sceptical of closer integration with Russia.

Belarus's involvement in war crimes

Belarus, a close ally of Russia, has supported its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform weeks-long military drills on its territory, and permitted Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv.

Belarus has also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets. Several reports emerged among the Belarusian opposition and Ukrainian military that Belarusian troops were in Ukraine fighting together with Russians, but Belarus's leader, Aleksander Lukashenko, dismissed them and said that the Belarusian Armed Forces (BAF) would not participate directly in the conflict.

Belarus has also been involved in the forced transfers of Ukrainian children. According to the National Anti-Crisis Management Group, a Belarusian organisation headed by Belarusian opposition figure Pavel Latushka, at least 2,100 Ukrainian children had been transferred to Belarus and were being held in summer camps administered by state-owned corporations. There are indications of re-education efforts by the Belarusian state.

According to international humanitarian law, children in war zones should be evacuated to neutral third countries whenever possible. Belarus lent its territory to be used as a staging ground for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and therefore, by aiding the Russian invasion, Belarus is complicit in the invasion by violating the international prohibition against "the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state" of the UN Charter, Chapter 1, Article 2(4).

Legal scholars have written that Belarus is guilty of aggression according to the United Nations' definition, by "allowing its territory, which it has placed at the disposal of another State, to be used by that other State for perpetrating an act of aggression".

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