Belarus-Putin Alliance: Geopolitical Interests And Historical Ties

Belarus has been a close ally of Russia, with the two countries sharing a land border and constituting the supranational Union State. Belarus has supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine, allowing Russian troops to launch attacks from its territory. This support has drawn condemnation from Western powers, with several countries imposing sanctions on Belarus. The country's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has also hinted that Belarus deserves compensation for the losses incurred by hosting Russian troops. Belarus's support for Russia has had economic, military, and political implications, with the country becoming more dependent on Russia and ceding some of its economic sovereignty.

Belarus allowed Russia to invade Ukraine from its territory

Belarus has been a close ally of Russia and supported its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the initial stages of the conflict, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to conduct military drills on its territory. However, the Russian troops did not leave Belarus as agreed and, instead, used the country as a base to stage part of the invasion, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. Belarus also allowed Russia to station missile launchers on its territory to attack Ukrainian targets.

The involvement of Belarus in the Russian invasion was met with condemnation from Western countries, resulting in sanctions from the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan. Despite assurances from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that he would not involve his country's armed forces in the conflict, there have been several reports of Belarusian troops fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine.

Lukashenko's decision to support Russia's invasion can be attributed to the country's economic dependence on Russia and the need for financial assistance. Russia has provided loans, favourable gas prices, and debt relief to Belarus, which has become increasingly isolated from the West due to its authoritarian political regime. Additionally, Russia's influence over Belarus cannot be understated, with Lukashenko's power heavily reliant on Putin's support.

Belarus and Russia have a long-standing close relationship

The two countries are members of various international organizations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the United Nations. They also have close military relations and are engaged in various joint military-scientific activities. Russia operates several military bases and radars in Belarus, including the Hantsavichy Radar Station and the Vileyka VLF transmitter.

The integration process between the two countries was launched on 2 April 1996, and the Union of Belarus and Russia was founded exactly a year later. This culminated in the establishment of a Union State between the two nations on 8 December 1999. The Treaty on Equal Rights of Citizens between Belarus and Russia was signed in December 1998, covering employment, and access to medical care and education.

Despite some setbacks and tensions in political and economic integration, the military integration processes between Belarus and Russia have continued due to the strategic value of Belarus to Russia. This was particularly evident after the 2014 Ukraine crisis, when Russia sought to replace Ukrainian defense ties with those of Belarus. In recent years, Belarus has allowed Russia to use its territory for military drills and to stage part of the invasion of Ukraine, reflecting the influence the Kremlin has in Belarus.

In addition to their military cooperation, Russia has provided economic support to Belarus. Between August 2020 and February 2022, Russia pledged $1.5 billion in loans, agreed on low gas prices, and deferred debt payments for Belarus. Russia has also allowed Belarus to use its ports for the shipment of oil products, although the interests of Russian exporters always take precedence. Belarus has benefited from below-market prices for oil and pre-war prices for gas.

The close relationship between Belarus and Russia has led to increasing dependence and integration between the two countries. In October 2022, they signed an agreement on joint principles of indirect taxation, benefiting Belarusian oil refineries. However, this also forces Belarus to adopt Russian indirect tax rates and give Russia access to Belarusian corporate information.

The two countries have also coordinated their responses to external sanctions and pressure. In March 2023, Russia announced its intention to deploy nuclear warheads on Belarusian territory, and Belarus has allowed Russia to station its nuclear weapons on its soil. This deployment provides Russia with new avenues for a short-range nuclear attack on U.S. allies and expands its nuclear capabilities in Central Europe.

Belarus has allowed Russia to station nuclear weapons on its soil

In March 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus under a nuclear-sharing agreement. This decision was made despite a joint Russian-Chinese declaration issued days earlier, calling on nuclear powers to withdraw nuclear weapons from abroad. Putin argued that this move would not breach non-proliferation agreements and was similar to arrangements the US has with its European allies.

The deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus has been met with mixed reactions. Some experts downplay its military significance, arguing that Russia can already reach any place in NATO with nuclear missiles from its territory. However, others view it as a threat to the West and a way to pressure NATO's eastern flank. The Belarusian opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, has condemned the move, stating that it "grossly contradicts the will of the Belarusian people."

The presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus has also raised concerns about the country's potential involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While Belarus has supported Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, allowing Russian troops to enter Ukraine through its southern border, it has not joined the war directly. However, the proximity of nuclear weapons to the conflict zone increases tensions and the potential for escalation.

Belarus has benefited economically from its relationship with Russia

Secondly, Russia has allowed Belarus to use its ports for the shipment of oil products, providing Belarus with access to international markets. While Russia's own export interests take precedence, this arrangement has nonetheless contributed to Belarus's economic gains.

Thirdly, Russia and Belarus have engaged in import substitution initiatives, with Russia extending nearly $1.7 billion in credit to Belarus for import substitution projects. This has helped to reduce Belarus's economic dependence on other countries and strengthen its domestic production capabilities.

Fourthly, Russia has designated Belarusian banks as guarantors for government procurement in Russia, facilitating Belarusian companies' access to public tenders in Russia. This has opened up new opportunities for Belarusian businesses and promoted trade between the two countries.

Finally, Russia has provided Belarus with access to military equipment and technology, including nuclear weapons. While this has increased Belarus's military capabilities and deterrence potential, it has also created economic opportunities for Belarus in terms of infrastructure development and technological advancements.

Overall, the economic benefits that Belarus has derived from its relationship with Russia have contributed to its economic growth and stability, despite the challenges posed by Western sanctions and trade disruptions.

Belarus has supported Russia in the face of sanctions

The sanctions against Belarus include export and import restrictions, financial sanctions, and economic sanctions targeting key sectors such as hydrocarbons, potash, transport, and commodities. Belarus has faced tougher sanctions affecting about 70% of its exports to the EU, or almost 17% of its total exports. Its exports were further impacted when Lithuania blocked the shipment of Belarusian potash through its ports.

Despite these sanctions, Belarus has continued to support Russia. In October 2024, Belarus ordered its troops to join Russian forces near Ukraine, citing a perceived threat from Kyiv. Additionally, Belarus has agreed to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons, with Russian President Vladimir Putin announcing in March 2023 that Russia would station such weapons in Belarus under a nuclear-sharing agreement.

The support between the two countries goes both ways. Russia has provided economic assistance to Belarus, pledging $1.5 billion in loans between August 2020 and February 2022, agreeing on low gas prices, and deferring debt payments. Russia has also extended credit to Belarus in relation to import substitution projects, and Belarusian companies have gained easier access to public tenders in Russia.

Frequently asked questions