Is Belarus President Dead? The Truth Behind Rumors

Speculation about the health and mortality of Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, has been rife since he was rushed back to Minsk from the Victory Day parade in Moscow in May 2023. The Belarusian leader, who has been described as Europe's last dictator, has not been seen since.

Alexander Lukashenko's health and whereabouts

Alexander Lukashenko, the authoritarian leader of Belarus, sparked health rumours after his appearance at the Victory Day parade in Moscow's Red Square on 9 May 2023. Lukashenko looked visibly unwell, pale, and bloated, and had to be driven in an electric cart. He skipped a celebratory breakfast in the Kremlin and flew back to Minsk, where he attended a similar event but then cancelled other scheduled appearances, fuelling speculation about his health.

On 15 May 2023, after nearly a week of absence, Lukashenko reappeared in a photo posted by the state news agency Belta, inspecting an air force installation. He was shown standing stiffly in a military jacket, taking a salute from an officer. Lukashenko also had a bandage on his left hand, similar to the one seen on his right hand at the Kremlin the previous week. A video of him speaking to the military appeared on a Telegram channel, but his voice was hoarse and weak.

> the Belarusian ruler's health was further called into question when he missed a government meeting on corruption and, for the first time in years, failed to attend the important Flag Day state holiday on 14 May 2023. Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko read an address on his behalf.

There has been no official comment on Lukashenko's health or his recent absences, which are unusual for a leader who typically appears at events and meetings daily and gives long, flamboyant speeches. Pavel Latushka, a former government official turned opposition activist, cited unidentified government sources claiming that Lukashenko was suffering from a viral infection with a complication of myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle. Latushka's claim could not be independently verified.

Lukashenko's disappearance sparked speculation about the stability of Belarus, with opposition figures warning that a serious illness involving the leader could destabilise the country. Exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya urged her supporters to "be well prepared for every scenario" and called for proactive measures from the international community to prevent Russian interference in Belarus.

Lukashenko, a former collective farm director, has ruled Belarus with an iron fist since 1994. He is known for stifling dissent with brutal repressions and has been labelled "Europe's last dictator". His regime took an even more repressive turn after mass protests in 2020, with a violent crackdown on opponents, resulting in thousands of arrests and widespread media shutdowns. Lukashenko's contested victory in the 2020 election, which was denounced as rigged, led to months of unprecedented protests and international sanctions.

Lukashenko has been a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, allowing Russia to use Belarus as a staging ground for its war in Ukraine. However, their relationship has reportedly been strained at times, with Putin supporting Lukashenko in suppressing demonstrations in return for his backing of Moscow's invasion. Lukashenko is the only foreign leader to regularly meet with Putin since the invasion, with their last meeting being at the Moscow parade on 9 May 2023.

Speculation about the future of Belarus without Lukashenko

Alexander Lukashenko, the current president of Belarus, has been at the helm of the country for almost 30 years. His absence from public life since May 9, 2023, when he attended the Victory Day parade in Moscow, has sparked rumours about his health and even death. While there has been no official confirmation, opposition channels reported that he was hospitalised and taken to the Police Republican Clinical Medical Centre in Minsk.

The future of Belarus without Lukashenko is uncertain, and several scenarios could unfold. Here are some possibilities:

Political Turbulence and Power Struggle

Without Lukashenko, the Belarusian elite is unlikely to remain monolithic, and internal political turbulence may ensue. The remnants of the Belarusian opposition, most of whose leaders have been exiled or arrested, may attempt to seize the opportunity to overthrow the regime. However, their chances of success remain slim, even with the support of Belarusian volunteers fighting alongside Ukraine.

A Lukashenko Dynasty

The authorities may try to ensure continuity by installing Lukashenko's eldest son, Viktor, as the new leader. Viktor has served as his father's Assistant on National Security and is believed to have close ties with the country's powerful security apparatus. However, it is unclear if the Belarusian police and army would remain loyal to him as they have been to his father.

Russian Influence and Annexation

The Kremlin will likely interfere in any post-Lukashenko scenario to maintain its influence and push its preferred presidential candidate. Given Lukashenko's close ties with Russia, there is also a possibility that Russia could take advantage of the power vacuum and attempt to annex Belarus, especially if the Belarusian regime becomes unstable. However, Russia's current preoccupation with the war in Ukraine and the limited number of troops it has in Belarus may hinder such a move.

Western Influence

The West could also seize the opportunity presented by Lukashenko's absence to improve its position in Belarus and counter Russian influence. This could lead to a power struggle between Russia and Western powers over the future of Belarus.

Recovery and Return

There is also a possibility that Lukashenko will recover from his illness and return to the public arena, as has happened with other leaders who disappeared from public view due to health issues.

In conclusion, the future of Belarus without Lukashenko is highly speculative and depends on various factors, including the actions of the Belarusian elite, opposition forces, Russia, and Western powers. The absence of a clear successor could lead to a power vacuum and potential instability in the country.

The possibility of Lukashenko's son, Viktor, taking power

In 2021, Viktor was appointed President of the Belarus Olympic Committee, succeeding his father after both were banned from attending the Olympic Games. This move was seen as further empowering Viktor, positioning him to potentially succeed his father in the next elections. Indeed, under current law, if the presidency becomes vacant, the prime minister assumes power, but in the event that Lukashenko is shot, the Security Council, which Viktor is believed to lead informally, will take control.

In addition to his political roles, Viktor has been linked to Belarusian businessman Alexander Zaytsev, who previously worked as his aide. Viktor has also faced sanctions from the EU, the UK, the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and several other countries, as he has been deemed responsible for political repression and electoral fraud.

The impact of Lukashenko's death on the invasion of Ukraine

As of November 2024, there are no reports of the death of Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus. However, in May 2023, he was rumoured to be seriously ill or even dead after being rushed back to Minsk from the Victory Day parade in Moscow.

Lukashenko has been a key ally of Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, allowing Russian troops to launch the invasion from Belarusian territory. His death would have a significant impact on the conflict, and its outcome.

Firstly, Lukashenko's death would likely lead to a power vacuum in Belarus, as there is no clear successor. This could result in political instability and internal power struggles, especially given the authoritarian nature of Lukashenko's regime and the lack of free and fair elections in the country. The power vacuum could also provide an opportunity for Russia to exert even greater influence over Belarus, potentially leading to a full merger of the two countries.

Secondly, Lukashenko's death could impact the level of support that Belarus provides to Russia in the invasion. On the one hand, a new leader in Belarus might seek to distance themselves from Russia and withdraw support for the invasion. On the other hand, a new leader could also try to maintain close ties with Russia to secure their position, especially if they are dependent on Russian backing.

Thirdly, Lukashenko's death could affect the dynamics between Russia and Ukraine. With Lukashenko being a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, his death could remove a key intermediary between the two countries. This could increase tensions and make it more difficult to reach a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.

Finally, Lukashenko's death could have economic implications for the region, particularly if it leads to instability in Belarus or a change in the country's relationship with Russia. Belarus has a significant role in the region's energy sector, and any disruption could have knock-on effects on neighbouring countries.

In conclusion, the death of Alexander Lukashenko would have far-reaching consequences for the invasion of Ukraine, potentially changing the course of the conflict and the broader geopolitical dynamics in Eastern Europe.

The potential for a power struggle in Minsk

The death of the Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, would almost certainly lead to a power struggle in Minsk. Lukashenko has ruled Belarus since 1994, making him the longest-serving head of state in Europe. During this time, he has consolidated power and established an authoritarian government, leading to him being labelled "Europe's last dictator".

Lukashenko has not named a successor, and given his title, it is likely that a power struggle would ensue following his death. There is some speculation that his eldest son, Viktor, could be a potential successor, given his previous role as an Assistant on National Security to his father, and his alleged ties to the country's powerful security apparatus. However, it is unclear if the Belarusian police and army would remain loyal to him.

In the event of Lukashenko's death, the Chairperson of the Council of the Republic of the National Assembly of Belarus, Natalia Kochanova, would assume the role of President until new elections are held. However, it is unlikely that free and fair elections would take place, as Lukashenko's regime has a history of suppressing opponents and limiting media freedom. The country's close ties with Russia and its President, Vladimir Putin, could also lead to Russian interference in the selection of a new leader, as they seek to maintain influence in the region.

The potential power struggle in Minsk could have significant implications for the region, particularly in terms of the ongoing invasion of Ukraine and the struggle between Putin and the West for influence. Belarus has allowed Russian troops to use its territory to attack Ukraine, and a change in leadership could impact this dynamic. Additionally, a power struggle could lead to internal political turmoil and instability in Belarus, particularly if the remnants of the Belarusian opposition attempt to use the momentum to overthrow the regime.

In conclusion, the death of President Lukashenko would almost certainly lead to a power struggle in Minsk, with potential implications for both domestic politics in Belarus and the broader geopolitical landscape.

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