Belarus-Moldova Conflict: Is War On The Horizon?

In March 2022, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko appeared to indicate that Russia planned to invade Moldova. During a meeting with his country's security council, Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, stood in front of a battle map that seemed to show a planned attack from southern Ukraine into Moldova, a former Soviet republic. The map also showed proposed battle plans for Russian troops across Ukraine, some of which had already occurred, and some that had not. One arrow on the map pointed from the Ukrainian port city of Odessa into Moldova's breakaway state of Transnistria, suggesting an attack on the region, which is controlled by pro-Russian separatists and where Russian troops have been stationed for decades.

Belarus President Lukashenko reveals Russia's Moldova invasion plans

During a televised address to his security council, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko appeared to reveal plans for a Russian invasion of Moldova. Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, stood in front of a battle map that seemed to show a planned attack from southern Ukraine into Moldova, a former Soviet republic that borders Ukraine and Romania.

The map, which was also posted online by the autocratic regime, showed Ukraine divided into four sections, with red arrows indicating planned troop movements and infrastructure targets. One of these arrows pointed from the southern Ukrainian port city of Odessa, which Russian troops have not yet reached, across the Moldovan border. This indicates a planned incursion into Moldova's breakaway region of Transnistria, which is internationally recognised as part of Moldova but has been controlled by pro-Russian separatists since 1992.

Some of the Russian lines of attack indicated on the map have already taken place, while others are yet to occur. Notably, Russia has already used Belarus as a location from which to send its troops into Ukraine, after insisting that the large number of forces assembled there were for joint military drills. Lukashenko has denied that any Belarussian troops have entered Ukraine, but reports suggest that Belarus is preparing to send troops to support the Russian invasion.

The revelation of Russia's invasion plans has raised fears that Putin is preparing to deploy Russian heavy armour and artillery in an attempt to brute-force his way to victory, a strategy that could cause huge civilian casualties. It also prompted the U.S. State Department to suspend operations at its embassy in Belarus and the European Union to impose new sanctions on the country over its role in the war.

In response to the map's release, UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss stated that Lukashenko's administration "actively aids and abets Russia's illegal invasion" and should be made to face the "consequences".

Lukashenko's map shows Ukraine divided into four sectors

On 1 March 2022, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, addressed his security council while standing in front of a battle map of Ukraine. The map, which was broadcast on television, showed Ukraine divided into four sectors, with red arrows indicating planned troop movements. It also appeared to show troop movement plans and infrastructure targets in Ukraine, as well as targets in Moldova's breakaway region of Transnistria.

Some of the lines of attack on the map had already been carried out by Russia, while others were yet to occur, including an incursion into Moldova, Ukraine's southern neighbour, from the port city of Odessa. The map gave new credence to reports that Belarus was preparing to send troops into Ukraine in support of the Russian invasion.

Indeed, just hours after Lukashenko's address, the Ukrainian Parliament confirmed the presence of Belarusian troops in Ukraine, specifically in the Chernihiv region near the country's border with Belarus. This was denied by Lukashenko and U.S. intelligence officials, who stated that there was no confirmation that the Belarusians are entering Ukraine.

The European Union announced plans to impose new sanctions on Belarus over its role in the war, including measures targeting exports, oligarchs, and banks. Lukashenko's map and the reported presence of Belarusian troops in Ukraine prompted concerns that Belarus was planning to commit its troops to the conflict, despite the country's previous denials.

Russia's invasion of Transnistria, a breakaway state in Moldova

In March 2022, a map displayed by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during a meeting of his country's security council suggested that Russia may be planning aggressive moves against Moldova, including its breakaway state of Transnistria. The map showed what appeared to be a planned attack on Transnistria through Ukraine's port city of Odessa.

Transnistria, officially known as the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, is a narrow strip of land between the Dniester River and the Moldova-Ukraine border. It is internationally recognized as part of Moldova but has claimed independence since the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. The region has a strong Russian influence, with a majority of its residents speaking Russian as their first language and almost half holding Russian citizenship. Since the 1990s, Russian troops have been stationed in Transnistria, purportedly to act as peacekeepers and protect Soviet weapon deposits.

In recent years, there have been increasing concerns about Russian interference in Transnistria, particularly after a series of incidents in 2022 that raised fears that Moldova could be in Moscow's crosshairs. These incidents included explosions in Transnistria, the fatal shooting of a human rights activist, and a drone strike on a military helicopter. While Transnistria has appealed to Russia for "protection" from Moldova, the Moldovan government has accused Moscow of interfering in its elections and attempting to derail its prospects of joining the European Union.

The potential Russian invasion of Transnistria has significant implications for the region. As a non-NATO country with breakaway regions, Moldova is particularly vulnerable to Russian aggression and influence. Additionally, the only way for Russia to engage in a full-scale invasion of Moldova would be by securing Ukraine's Black Sea coast and controlling Odessa. This further underscores the importance of Ukraine's defense against Russian advances and the role it plays in protecting neighboring countries.

While there have been no direct indications of Belarus' intention to invade Moldova, the displayed map suggests a potential joint effort with Russia, given Lukashenko's close alliance with Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, it is important to note that the displayed map may not necessarily indicate imminent invasion plans, and the situation remains dynamic and subject to change.

Russian troops stationed in Transnistria for decades

In March 2022, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, appeared to show a planned invasion of Moldova during a televised address to his security council. The map, which was posted online by the Belarussian regime, showed a planned attack from southern Ukraine into Moldova, a former Soviet republic that borders Ukraine and Romania.

The map also showed Ukraine divided into four sections, with lines of attack that had already been executed by Russia, except for a planned attack on Moldova's breakaway state of Transnistria through Ukraine's port city of Odessa.

Transnistria, a narrow strip of land with around 400,000 inhabitants, is internationally recognized as part of Moldova. However, the Moldovan government has not exercised any authority over the breakaway republic since 1992, when Russian troops first arrived in the region. The Russian military presence in Transnistria dates back to the Transnistria War in 1992, when the 14th Guards Army intervened in support of the Transnistrian separatist forces. Following the war, which ended in a Russian-backed Transnistrian victory and the de facto independence of the region, Russian forces remained in Transnistria under the guise of a peacekeeping mission.

In 1995, the 14th Guards Army was reorganized into the Operational Group of Russian Forces (OGRF), tasked with guarding the Cobasna ammunition depot in Transnistria. Russia has maintained an unknown number of soldiers in Transnistria, and the Government of Moldova has repeatedly called for their withdrawal and replacement by international forces. Despite agreements signed in 1994 and 1999 to withdraw its troops, Russia has failed to do so, and its military presence in Transnistria continues to be a source of tension and concern.

Moldova welcomes Ukrainian refugees, offers them jobs

In March 2022, images emerged of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko standing in front of a battle map that appeared to show a planned invasion of Moldova, alongside Ukraine. Lukashenko is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and has allowed Russia to use Belarus as a staging ground for its invasion of Ukraine.

Despite this, Moldova has welcomed almost one million Ukrainian refugees since the start of the Russian invasion, and is offering them jobs. As of September 2024, there were 123,730 refugees from Ukraine living in Moldova, around 5% of the country's total population.

Moldova has relaxed its regulations to help Ukrainian citizens find employment. For instance, refugees only need any identity card to get a job, and do not require a temporary residence permit. Knowing Romanian will facilitate socialization and improve employment chances, and there are free Romanian language courses available for refugees. The National Employment Agency (ANOPM) helps refugees with career guidance and employment assistance.

The Moldovan economy has a great need for light industry workers, including seamstresses and cutters, as well as trade workers, installation engineers, and handymen. Doctors can also easily find work, as there are no language or qualification recognition barriers. Other common vacancies include IT specialists and restaurant workers.

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