A Union Of Russia And Belarus: Global Implications

The prospect of Belarus joining forces with Russia in the war against Ukraine has sparked fears and raised concerns about the potential impact of such a move. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's statements and actions have fuelled speculation about the country's possible involvement in the conflict. Lukashenko has announced the formation of a joint military group with Russia and the deployment of Russian troops in Belarus, citing defensive purposes. However, the actual intentions and capabilities of Belarus remain uncertain.

While Belarus has provided logistical support, supply lines, and medical care for Russian soldiers, as well as airfields for air attacks, the country's direct participation in the war is questionable. The Belarusian army is relatively small and lacks combat experience, with low morale among its troops. There is also strong opposition to the country's involvement in the war from both the Belarusian people and military, who fear political suicide and unpopularity. Additionally, the potential benefits of Belarusian involvement for Russia are unclear, as their troops would likely be a liability rather than an asset.

The decision for Belarus to join Russia in the war against Ukraine carries significant risks and uncertainties. It could lead to the destabilisation of the Minsk regime and provoke popular unrest, ultimately hastening Lukashenko's downfall. It remains to be seen whether Lukashenko will commit his forces to the conflict, but the potential consequences are carefully weighed by all involved parties.

The Belarusian army is small and unlikely to make a significant impact

Belarus's armed forces consist of the Ground Forces and the Air Force and Air Defence Forces, under the command of the Ministry of Defence. The Belarusian People's Republic of March 1918 to 1919 did not have time to establish armed forces during its brief existence. The current Belarusian military was formed in the early 1990s, following the country's independence from the Soviet Union.

In 2017, the IISS estimated that personnel in the armed forces numbered 49,000, with nearly 350,000 reserves. Most soldiers are conscripts serving for a period of 18 months. Belarus's military ranks 64th out of 145 countries in the 2024 Global Firepower review.

The Belarusian army is small in comparison to those of Russia and Ukraine and has far less combat experience. However, it often holds drills with the Russians and has a similar post-Soviet structure, arms, and equipment.

In 2022, there was speculation that Belarus might join Russia's war in Ukraine. Analysts suggested that Belarus could send between 10 and 15 tactical battalions of up to 800 men each to aid the Russian army. However, others noted that many Belarusian servicemen and officers had refused to fight against Ukraine and that Belarus's top commander claimed that troop movements were unrelated to the war.

While Belarus did not end up joining the war, its military has continued to hold large-scale drills to test their combat readiness. Ukraine has responded by reinforcing its border with Belarus.

The Belarusian public is against the war

The Belarusian opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who challenged Lukashenko in the 2020 election, told AP that hosting Russian nuclear weapons would turn the Belarusian people into hostages. She said that the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons would make Belarus a target in the case of an escalation and would seriously jeopardize Belarusians' lives. She added that the two dictators, Lukashenko and Putin, have gone too far in their war games and that it would only lead to the toughening of Western sanctions.

According to a Belarusian political analyst, Valery Karbalevich, the growing involvement of Belarus in the Kremlin's war efforts is fomenting widespread resentment. He said that a broad guerrilla movement has evolved in Belarus, with members blowing up railway tracks and Russian warplanes and attacking Russian and Belarusian official websites. He also said that Belarus' transformation into a Russian military hub and its gradual drawing into the war have caused public discontent, forcing Lukashenko to escalate repression.

A poll conducted by the Razumkov Centre between February and March 2023 found that 81% of Ukrainian respondents expressed a negative attitude towards Belarus. This is likely due to Belarus's assistance to Russia's invasion, which drew condemnation from Western powers. On the day of the invasion, the US Treasury issued sanctions against Belarus for its involvement, and similar sanctions were introduced by Japan and the European Union.

Despite Lukashenko's efforts to present himself as a neutral party, his actions speak otherwise. By allowing Russia to use its territory to invade Ukraine and amending the constitution to allow the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons, he has made it clear that he is not interested in true neutrality. However, it is important to note that the Belarusian army has not committed its troops to fighting in Ukraine, and Belarusians are the biggest foreign nationals group fighting for Ukraine. This is likely due to the public sentiment in Belarus against joining the war, which has influenced the regime's decision-making.

Russia has leverage over Belarus

Furthermore, Russia has sought to exert control over Belarus's energy infrastructure. Gazprom, a Russian company, tried to purchase the Belarusian network operator Beltransgaz but disagreements led to a gas dispute in 2004, in which Gazprom ceased gas supplies to Belarus. This dispute was eventually resolved, but it highlighted Russia's leverage over Belarus in the energy sector.

Russia has also used its position as a major oil supplier to Belarus as a bargaining chip. In 2020, Russia slowed down oil supplies to Belarus, prompting the latter to threaten to siphon oil from Russia's transit pipeline to Europe. This dispute was part of a bigger geopolitical issue, with Minsk accusing Moscow of attempting to force a unified state.

In addition to economic and energy leverage, Russia has also exerted military influence over Belarus. The two countries have close military ties and engage in joint military drills. Russia also operates several military bases and radars in Belarus, including the Hantsavichy Radar Station and the Vileyka VLF transmitter. This military presence gives Russia significant influence over Belarus's defence and security policies.

Lastly, Russia has provided political support to Belarus in the face of international sanctions. In 2012, Russian President Vladimir Putin criticised the European Union's sanctions against Belarus, and both countries agreed to coordinate efforts to counter attempts to interfere in their internal affairs. This demonstrates Russia's willingness to use its diplomatic influence to protect its interests and those of its allies.

Belarus has already provided support to Russia

The two nations have close military relations and are engaged in various joint military-scientific activities. Russia also operates several military bases and radars in Belarus, including the Hantsavichy Radar Station and the Vileyka VLF transmitter. In the lead-up to the invasion, Russia held joint drills with Belarus, allowing it to move more forces closer to the Ukrainian border. Areas of Ukraine adjacent to Belarus came under Russian assault in the initial stage of the invasion.

Belarus's support for Russia has had economic consequences. While trade between Minsk and Moscow has alleviated Belarus's current economic difficulties, it has also made Belarus more dependent on Russia in the long term. Russia has not been overly generous in its assistance, only providing enough to avoid its neighbour's destabilisation. Belarus has had to pay for this aid by deepening integration with Russia across a range of areas, including an agreement on joint principles of indirect taxation, which benefits Belarusian oil refineries in the short term. However, this agreement will also force Belarus to adopt Russian indirect tax rates and give Moscow full access to Belarusian corporate information.

Belarus has also suffered tougher sanctions as a result of its support for Russia, affecting about 70% of its exports to the EU, or almost 17% of its total exports. Its exports suffered another blow when Lithuania blocked the shipment of Belarusian potash through its ports. Belarus has repeatedly hinted that it deserves to be compensated by Russia for the losses incurred by hosting Russian troops.

The Belarusian army is inexperienced

The Belarusian army is small in comparison to those of Russia and Ukraine, with around 48,000 to 49,000 servicemen, and far less combat experience. Most soldiers are conscripts serving for a period of 18 months, and the army has a high number of reserve personnel. While Belarus has conducted military reforms and drills, and has a similar post-Soviet structure to Ukraine, its forces are inexperienced in comparison. This inexperience was evident in the purges within the Belarusian military after many servicemen and officers refused to fight against Ukraine.

The Belarusian army's lack of experience is further highlighted when compared to the Ukrainian armed forces, which have been effectively retrained according to NATO standards and have received significant shipments of Western military aid. The Ukrainian forces have also gained valuable combat experience during the ongoing conflict with Russia, further widening the gap in capabilities between the two countries.

The Belarusian army's inexperience is a significant factor in the country's potential involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Despite pressure and close ties with Russia, Belarus has not committed its military to the conflict. This may be due in part to the understanding that sending inexperienced troops to fight against a better-equipped and trained Ukrainian army could provoke a serious wave of discontent within Belarus, threatening the current regime.

Furthermore, the Belarusian army's lack of experience and capacity could also be a factor in Russia's calculations. While Russia may seek to utilise Belarus as a strategic base, sending Belarusian troops into Ukraine could be risky and may not significantly alter the military balance. Instead, Russia may prefer to maintain a reliable and safe base in Belarus, rather than risk an unpredictable second front.

Frequently asked questions