Russia-Belarus Alliance: What's The Deal?

Belarus and Russia have a long history of political and economic cooperation, with Russia being Belarus's largest and most important economic partner. The two countries share a land border and constitute the supranational Union State, with a 1999 agreement setting a legal basis for integration. Belarus has supported Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, allowing Russian troops to stage military drills and launch attacks from its territory. However, the relationship has experienced tensions, with Belarus at times asserting its independence and pursuing diversification.

Belarus-Russia military drills

Belarus and Russia have a strategic partnership based on geographic location, close historic and cultural links, economic ties, and cooperation between businesses. In 1999, the two countries signed the Agreement on the Establishment of the Union State of Belarus and Russia, which set a legal basis for integration between the two countries. As part of this agreement, Belarus and Russia defined several major goals, including ensuring peaceful and democratic development, establishing a single economic and customs area, and pursuing agreed-upon foreign, defence, and social policies.

In line with these goals, Belarus and Russia have a joint regional military force and coordinate their air defence systems. They also perform joint military exercises and consider various questions regarding operative and combat training. In January and February 2022, Russian troops entered Belarus to participate in military drills. These troops did not exit the country as scheduled and were used to stage part of the invasion of Ukraine, with Belarus providing Russia with the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv.

In June 2024, Russia and Belarus launched the second stage of drills intended to train their troops in tactical nuclear weapons. This followed the first stage of exercises, which focused on preparation for nuclear missions and deployment for launches. The drills are presented as a response to Western support for Ukraine and statements made by Western officials.

In August 2024, amidst Ukraine's offensive into Russia's Kursk Oblast, Belarus announced the transfer of an Iskander missile, Polonez MLRS, and special forces to areas bordering Ukraine. This was followed by the movement of tanks and additional forces, including air defence and aircraft, to reinforce the troop grouping on the Belarus-Ukraine border.

The Union State of Belarus and Russia

Russia and Belarus have been allies since the immediate post-Soviet era. The Union State of Belarus and Russia was formed on 8 December 1999, when the Treaty on the Creation of a Union State of Russia and Belarus was signed. The treaty was ratified by the Russian State Duma and the Belarusian Parliament on 22 December 1999 and 26 January 2000, respectively. The Union State is based on a previous international treaty between Russia and Belarus, signed on 2 April 1997.

The Union State is a supranational union consisting of Belarus and Russia, with the stated aim of deepening the relationship between the two states through economic and defence policy integration. The union is ruled through the Supreme State Council, of which the current president is Alexander Lukashenko, and other governing bodies. The Supreme State Council includes the member heads of states, respective governments, and both chambers of parliaments. Decisions are made by a principle of one state, one vote, with the presidents of the states giving that vote.

The Union Treaty sets out a number of important guidelines, including the establishment of a common economic space. This is achieved on a phase-by-phase basis. The partnership between Belarus and Russia is built on the principles of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the states and the responsible fulfilment by the parties of their international obligations.

The Union State has exclusive jurisdiction over the creation of a single economic space and legal foundations for a common market, monetary union, single tax and pricing policy, unified development and procurement of defence equipment, and a unified system of technical support for the armed forces. Common command of regional military forces is further realised through many other documents based on this Union State jurisdiction, a common border policy, and other jurisdictions.

The Union State grants citizenship to citizens of both states, meaning that every citizen of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus is simultaneously a citizen of the Union, with the guaranteed right to move and reside freely within the territory of the other party. This allows Belarusian citizens to travel, work, or study in Russia and vice versa, including the possession, use, and disposal of property on the territory of another state.

The Union State also has joint jurisdiction with the subjects of the Union State, which includes joint defence policy, harmonisation and unification of legislation, development of science, education, culture, formation of a common scientific, technological, and information space, migration, working conditions, labour protection, and social security.

Outside the limits of the exclusive jurisdiction of the Union State and the joint jurisdiction of the Union State and the subjects of the Union State, the subjects of the Union State retain the full completeness of state power.

Belarus's role in the Russo-Ukrainian War

Belarus has played a significant role in the Russo-Ukrainian War, acting as a close ally of Russia. In the initial stages of the conflict, Belarus allowed Russian forces to conduct military drills on its territory and launch attacks on Ukraine from its border, providing Russia with the shortest possible land route to Kyiv. While Belarus denied direct involvement of its armed forces in the conflict, there have been reports of Belarusian troops fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine. Additionally, Belarus has permitted Russia to station missile launchers on its territory and launch attacks on Ukrainian targets.

The involvement of Belarus in the war has led to a severe deterioration in Ukraine-Belarus relations. Ukraine has divested from strategically important Belarusian imports, particularly petroleum products, resulting in a significant decline in bilateral trade. Diplomatic relations have also been strained, with ambassadors recalled and minimal communication between the two countries. Despite this, Ukraine maintains diplomatic relations with Belarus for several strategic reasons, including the facilitation of contact with Ukrainians in occupied territories and the transmission of legal and consular documents.

Since mid-2022, the direct threats from Belarus towards Ukraine have decreased due to the reduced Russian military presence in the country. However, Belarus's role in the conflict has evolved, and it now serves as a crucial supplier of military hardware, munitions, and components to Russia. Belarus has also participated in Russia's psychological and informational operations, creating the impression of potential offensives and conducting military drills to put pressure on Ukraine.

In terms of public opinion, Belarusians have generally opposed their country's involvement in the war. Protests against the invasion have taken place, and according to a survey, more than 50% of Belarusians believe their country should remain neutral. Belarus's participation in the conflict has been condemned by Western countries, resulting in sanctions from the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan.

Nuclear weapons in Belarus

Belarus gained independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and inherited a nuclear weapons infrastructure. By 1996, it had transferred all remaining nuclear weapons to Russia. In 2010, Belarus announced its plan to eliminate the country's remaining stocks of highly enriched uranium (HEU) with help from the US. However, this agreement was suspended after the US announced sanctions against Belarus in 2011.

In February 2022, Belarus amended its constitution to allow Russia to deploy nuclear weapons on its territory. Russia deployed a shipment of nuclear weapons to Belarus at the end of 2023. This deployment has raised concerns about a breach of Belarus's obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapon state. Belarus's representative stated that the cooperation with Russia is in line with international law and the NPT, and that such cooperation is not new, as it has long been practised by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

In 2024, Belarusian military officials stated that the tactical nuclear weapons deployed by Russia on Belarusian territory are for strategic deterrence, to deter potential adversaries from attacking Belarus. Russia controls the nuclear warheads, but Belarus controls the means of their delivery, with Belarus's president reportedly having a role in the decision-making process for their use.

Belarus possesses 230 kg of highly-enriched uranium (HEU). In August 2022, it announced upgrades to its Su-25 fighter aircraft to carry nuclear weapons. Belarus has also conducted joint drills with Russia involving missiles and warplanes capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons.

Belarus-Russia economic ties

Belarus and Russia have a unique and complex relationship. Their ties are based on shared history, language, and culture, as well as legal agreements that establish a strategic partnership. The two countries have intertwined economies, and Russia is Belarus's key trade partner and major export market. At the end of 2022, mutual trade between the two countries increased by almost 15%, with Russia accounting for more than half of Belarus's foreign trade.

The Agreement on the Establishment of the Union State of Belarus and Russia, signed in 1999, sets up a legal basis for integration between the two countries. The agreement includes a series of major goals, such as ensuring peaceful and democratic development, establishing a single economic and customs area, and ensuring sustainable economic development. Belarus and Russia are also members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which they consider the most advanced integration community in the post-Soviet area. The EEU helps create the conditions necessary for the free flow of goods, services, and capital, as well as the unimpeded movement of the labour force.

In addition to economic ties, Belarus and Russia have strong defence-industrial cooperation. The Belarusian defence sector is almost entirely dependent on contracts with Moscow. Russia and Belarus are moving forward with Union State integration, which will result in closer military integration, Russian military forward stationing in Belarus, and a joint military doctrine. Belarus has allowed Russia to use its territory to invade Ukraine and to deploy tactical nuclear weapons within its borders.

Belarus and Russia also cooperate in various other areas, including energy, transport, industry, science, R&D, construction, innovations, new technologies, and IT. These joint programmes contribute to the competitiveness of goods manufactured, the creation of new jobs, and the improvement of the export potential of enterprises in both countries.

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