Belarus And Russia: A Satellite Relationship?

Belarus has been described as a satellite state of Russia, particularly since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War. The term satellite state refers to a country that is officially independent but heavily influenced or controlled by another country politically, economically, and militarily. Belarus has increasingly aligned itself with Russia, socially, militarily, and economically, causing concern among pro-democracy activists and military experts. The country's decision to allow Moscow to position tactical nuclear weapons on its soil is seen as a significant step towards Russia's absorption of Belarus, which has been a long-time goal of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Belarus's role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Belarus has played a significant role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, largely as an ally of Russia. The country has a close relationship with Russia, sharing a border and with a long history of being politically influenced by its eastern neighbour.

In the early days of the conflict, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to conduct military drills on its territory. These troops did not leave as scheduled, and Belarus allowed Russia to launch part of its invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory, providing Russia with the shortest land route to Kyiv. Belarus also permitted Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its soil, targeting Ukraine.

There have been reports of Belarusian troops fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine, although these have been denied by the Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, who has stated that the Belarusian Armed Forces would not participate directly in the conflict. However, in October 2024, Lukashenko ordered Belarusian troops to join Russian forces near Ukraine, citing a perceived threat from Kyiv.

In addition to military support, Belarus has also been a site for dialogue between Russia and Ukraine, hosting talks aimed at ending the war. However, these talks have thus far failed to yield any significant breakthroughs.

The involvement of Belarus in the conflict has been met with condemnation from Western countries, resulting in sanctions being imposed by the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan. Despite this, Belarus remains a key ally of Russia in the conflict, and its proximity to Ukraine gives it significant strategic value.

The Wagner Group's presence in Belarus

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko offered Prigozhin and his mercenaries refuge in the country, stating that their experience and expertise could be beneficial. Lukashenko's decision was met with opposition from various groups, including the Belarusian opposition, guerrilla activists, and neighbouring Baltic countries. They viewed the Wagner Group as a threat to regional security and Belarusian independence.

According to Lukashenko, those Wagner fighters who chose not to come under the command of the Russian Defence Ministry, as offered by Russian President Vladimir Putin, could stay in Belarus temporarily and at their own expense. He provided them with an abandoned military unit to set up camp and promised his assistance. The exact location of this camp is unknown, but it is believed to be in the city of Osipovichi, located about 142 miles north of the border with Ukraine.

The presence of the Wagner Group in Belarus has raised concerns among its neighbours, including Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, who share a border with Belarus. These countries have taken steps to enhance security along their frontiers. Poland, in particular, has sent 10,000 troops to its eastern border and held a large military parade, demonstrating their readiness to address any potential threats.

While the Wagner Group's activities in Belarus are shrouded in disinformation and uncertainty, their presence has undoubtedly contributed to heightened tensions in the region.

Belarus's loss of sovereignty to Russia

Paragraph 1: Military Loss of Sovereignty

> Belarus has served as a rear base for the Kremlin's war in Ukraine, even though the country's army is not directly involved in the fighting. Belarus allowed the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons on its soil and the outfitting of its bombers with nuclear weapons, posing a threat to the West. This decision indicated Belarus's fealty to Moscow and represented a step towards Russia's absorption of Belarus, a long-time goal of Vladimir Putin.

Paragraph 2: Social and Educational Loss of Sovereignty

> Schools in Belarus give patriotic lessons and teach students how to assemble rifles, with textbooks rewritten to favor Russia's view of history. Summer camps run by state-owned conglomerates host children from occupied Ukrainian territory, and factories produce uniforms for Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. These actions demonstrate how Belarus is propagating a Russia-friendly narrative and supporting Russia's military efforts.

Paragraph 3: Political Loss of Sovereignty

> Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko owes his political survival to Vladimir Putin, who helped him consolidate his controversial re-election in 2020. Lukashenko's moment of glory as a peacemaker in the Wagner group mercenaries' rebellion has satisfied him, as he knows that Putin's downfall could mean his own. Lukashenko's dependence on Putin's support has resulted in a loss of political independence.

Paragraph 4: Economic Loss of Sovereignty

> Belarus's economy has become increasingly intertwined with Russia's, as it produces uniforms and weapons for the Russian military. Additionally, Belarus has provided territory for Russian training grounds and served as a launchpad for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, indicating a loss of economic sovereignty and autonomy.

Paragraph 5: International Relations Loss of Sovereignty

> Belarus's foreign relations have been influenced by Russia, as evident in its decision to allow Russian nuclear weapons on its soil. This move has strained relations with Western countries and raised concerns about Belarus's loss of nuclear neutrality. Belarus's alignment with Russia has led to calls for sanctions and penalties from the European Union and other Western powers.

The threat posed by Belarus to the West

Belarus has been described as a "vassal state" of Russia, and its proximity to NATO members Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia poses a significant threat to the West. Here are some key points outlining the threat posed by Belarus to the West:

• Loss of Sovereignty: Belarus is increasingly losing its sovereignty to Russia, with Moscow exerting control in various spheres. This includes social, military, and economic aspects. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has been labelled a "vassal" of Vladimir Putin, and the country has been described as a "satellite" of Russia.
• Nuclear Weapons: Belarus has allowed Moscow to position tactical nuclear weapons on its soil and outfit its bombers with nuclear capabilities. This poses a direct threat to the West, as it indicates Russia's potential absorption of Belarus, a long-time goal of Putin.
• Military Cooperation: Russia has used Belarus as a launchpad for its invasion of Ukraine, with thousands of Russian troops stationed in the country. Belarus has also served as a training ground for Russian soldiers and mercenaries, including those from the Wagner Group.
• Ideological Alignment: Schools in Belarus teach patriotic lessons favoring Russia's view of history. This ideological alignment with Russia further solidifies Belarus's position as a threat to the West.
• Geopolitical Implications: The absorption of Belarus into Putin's imperial project has significant geopolitical implications. The border between Belarus and NATO countries becomes a new dividing line between the democratic West and Putin's autocratic empire.
• Security Threat: The presence of Russian troops and nuclear weapons in Belarus poses a direct security threat to neighboring countries and the wider region. This has prompted responses from the US and NATO to bolster their military presence in Eastern Europe.

In conclusion, Belarus's close ties with Russia and its loss of sovereignty pose a significant threat to the West. The country's proximity to NATO members and its role in Russia's military endeavors, including the war in Ukraine, only serve to heighten this threat. The West must remain vigilant and respond appropriately to counter these dangers.

The future of Belarus's relationship with Russia

Belarus's relationship with Russia has been a complex one, with the former often described as a "satellite state" or "vassal" of the latter. In recent years, Belarus has become increasingly aligned with Russia, particularly in the wake of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Belarus has served as a rear base for the Kremlin's war effort and allowed the positioning of Russian tactical nuclear weapons on its soil, raising concerns about its loss of sovereignty and independence.

Additionally, Belarus's economy is closely tied to Russia, with factories producing uniforms for Russian soldiers and state-owned conglomerates hosting children from occupied Ukrainian territories during summer camps. The Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has also been described as a "vassal" of Russian President Vladimir Putin, owing his political survival to Kremlin support. Lukashenko's mediation in the Wagner group mercenaries' rebellion has further solidified his ties to Russia, as he is said to know that Putin's downfall could mean his own.

However, there are signs of potential discord between the two countries. For instance, Belarus has been dismantling Russian training camps on its territory, which may indicate a desire to distance itself from the conflict in Ukraine or a response to domestic pressure. Additionally, exiled Belarusian opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya has condemned Belarus's participation in Moscow's aggression and expressed hope that Estonia will not recognize the "fake elections" expected to keep Lukashenko in power.

In conclusion, while Belarus's future relationship with Russia is uncertain, it is likely that Russia will continue to exert significant influence over the country in the near term. Belarus's dependence on Russia in military, economic, and political matters suggests that it will remain a "satellite state" for the foreseeable future. However, the potential for internal and external pressures to alter this dynamic cannot be ruled out.

Frequently asked questions