The Enduring Conflict: Afghanistan's Multigenerational War

The War in Afghanistan was a multigenerational conflict that lasted from 2001 to 2021. It was the longest war in US military history, surpassing the Vietnam War by approximately six months. The war was sparked by the September 11 attacks, which were planned and executed by Al-Qaeda in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. In response, the US and its allies invaded Afghanistan, declaring Operation Enduring Freedom as part of the war on terror. The conflict resulted in significant casualties, with an estimated 176,000–212,000+ lives lost, including 46,319 civilians. The war also caused massive displacement, with 2.6 million Afghans remaining refugees and 4 million internally displaced by the time the Taliban returned to power in 2021.

The war in Afghanistan had a multigenerational impact on service members, with some serving in the same war as their parents. US President Biden, in his announcement to withdraw US troops, emphasised that the war was never intended to be a multigenerational undertaking. He stated that the objectives of eradicating Al-Qaeda and ensuring such an attack could not be repeated had been achieved, with Osama bin Laden dead and Al-Qaeda degraded.

The US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001

The Taliban had refused to hand over Osama bin Laden, the leader of Al-Qaeda, and the US-led coalition aimed to dismantle the terrorist organisation and deny Islamist militants a base of operations in Afghanistan. The invasion began on October 7, 2001, with air strikes on 31 targets across the country. The coalition also included Canada, Australia, France, and Germany, with other countries providing logistical support.

The Taliban regime was quickly removed from power, and a new government was formed under Hamid Karzai. The Taliban retreated from their strongholds in Mazar-e-Sharif, Kandahar, and Kabul, and the coalition forces captured Kabul on November 13, 2001. The Taliban leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar, fled the country, and the Taliban surrendered Kandahar, their spiritual home, on December 6, marking the end of their rule.

The US-led invasion was the first phase of what became a 20-year-long war in Afghanistan. The second phase, from 2002 until 2008, was marked by a US strategy of defeating the Taliban and rebuilding core institutions of the Afghan state. The third phase, from 2008, saw a shift to classic counterinsurgency doctrine, with a focus on protecting the population from Taliban attacks and reintegrating insurgents into Afghan society.

The Taliban's resurgence in 2003

The Taliban resurgence in 2003 was a result of several factors. The group had been regrouping since 2001, when they were defeated and many fighters left the movement or retreated to sanctuaries in Pakistan. In 2003, the Taliban announced that they had regrouped and were ready to wage a guerrilla war to expel US forces from Afghanistan.

In 2003, the Taliban began a widespread insurgency against the new Afghan government and coalition forces. Insurgents from the Taliban and other Islamist groups waged asymmetric warfare, fighting with guerrilla warfare in the countryside, suicide attacks against urban targets, and reprisals against perceived Afghan collaborators.

The Taliban's resurgence was also due to mistakes made by the US and its allies. The US lacked a clear goal in Afghanistan beyond counter-terrorism objectives, and the Bush administration was initially opposed to nation-building. However, as the US stayed, nation-building slowly crept into the rationale for remaining in the country. The US also sought to instill democracy and women's rights as a moral matter, but these efforts were undermined by the Taliban's resurgence.

The US and its allies also made several military mistakes, including going on missions with questionable intelligence and killing numerous civilians in operations. These errors drove Taliban recruitment and led many Taliban leaders to flee back to Pakistan, where the remnants of the Taliban were hiding.

By 2004, the Taliban had reorganized and planned a resurgence. In 2005, the Taliban began to increase their attacks, and by 2006, Afghanistan was facing a wave of attacks by improvised explosives and suicide bombers. The Taliban also targeted civilians, with Human Rights Watch reporting that bombings and other attacks on Afghan civilians had "sharply escalated" in 2006.

In 2007, the Taliban's usual strategy of summer offensives continued, and militants aggressively spread their influence into northern and western Afghanistan. By 2008, the Taliban had severed remaining ties with al-Qaeda, and the group was stronger than ever, with Western officials and analysts estimating the strength of Taliban forces at about 10,000 fighters.

By 2009, the Taliban had regained control over the countryside of several Afghan provinces, and in 2010, the group was ousted from parts of Helmand Province by ISAF Operation Moshtarak. However, the insurgency spread to the northern provinces of the country, and the Taliban continued to gain strength.

The US-Taliban deal in 2020

The agreement laid out a timetable for the final withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, with the condition that the Taliban would prevent any militant group from staging attacks from Afghan territory against the US and its allies. The deal also called for a prisoner exchange within ten days. The US agreed to reduce its troops in Afghanistan from 12,000 to 8,600 within 135 days, with all troops leaving within 14 months if the Taliban kept their commitments.

The deal was endorsed by all 15 members of the UN Security Council. However, it did not include the Afghan government, and President Ashraf Ghani criticised the deal, stating that his government had not committed to releasing 5,000 Taliban prisoners. The intra-Afghan talks started six months later than scheduled due to a dispute over the prisoner release.

The Taliban intensified attacks on military and civilian targets as a bargaining tactic, and violence did not diminish in the year following the deal. The Taliban also failed to cut ties with Al-Qaeda, and experts warned that a premature US withdrawal could lead to civil war in Afghanistan.

The Taliban's last offensive in 2021

The Taliban's offensive was aided by the fact that the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) had been trained as a high-tech military model using helicopters, airstrikes, and technically specialised reconnaissance units. When the US withdrew its support, the ANSF lost helicopter support for resupplying military bases, aerial and laser-guided weapons, and technical, proprietary software and logistics support. The Afghan army was left with a lack of food, fuel, and ammunition.

In the first three months of the offensive, the Taliban made significant territorial gains in the countryside, increasing the number of districts it controlled from 73 to 223. On August 6, the Taliban launched an assault on the provincial capitals, with most towns surrendering without a fight. On August 13, the Taliban won the weeks-long battles of major cities Herat, Kandahar, and Lashkargah. On August 15, President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, and the Taliban captured the Afghan capital, Kabul, with only sporadic resistance. The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan's government fell, resulting in the de facto takeover of the country and the reinstatement of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

The speed of the Taliban's takeover came as a surprise to many, including the governments of the United States and their allies, Russia, and the Taliban themselves. The Taliban's victory had widespread domestic and international ramifications regarding human rights and the proliferation of terrorism.

The US withdrawal in 2021

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 marked the end of America's longest war. The war began in 2001 as a direct response to the September 11 attacks, with the US and its allies invading Afghanistan to eradicate Al-Qaeda and ensure that such an attack could not be repeated. The conflict officially ended with the 2021 Taliban offensive, which overthrew the Islamic Republic and re-established the Islamic Emirate.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan was announced by President Joe Biden on April 14, 2021, with a deadline of September 11—the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. Biden's decision was met with a mixed response, with some criticising the move as a "disastrous military and diplomatic withdrawal" and others supporting it as "an important and welcomed development". Biden himself defended the decision, stating that the US had achieved its objectives and that the war should have ended a decade ago when Osama bin Laden was killed.

The withdrawal of US troops began on May 1 and was completed on August 30, 2021, with the evacuation of over 122,000 people from Kabul. The process was not without incident, with 13 US service members and dozens of Afghans killed in a terrorist attack by ISIS-K at the Kabul airport on August 26.

The Taliban had been making gains in Afghanistan in the final weeks of the US presence, and they continued their offensive during the withdrawal. By July 5, they had captured the first provincial capital, and over the next ten days, they swept across the country, capturing capital after capital. On August 15, the Taliban occupied the Presidential Palace in Kabul, and the incumbent President Ashraf Ghani fled the country.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan had far-reaching consequences. It raised questions about the capability of Western democracies to build lasting institutions in their image overseas and their willingness to do so in the future. It also led to a massive influx of refugees, with over 122,000 people airlifted out of Kabul and thousands more displaced. The rights of women and girls in Afghanistan were also thrown into jeopardy, with the Taliban imposing restrictions on their freedom.

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