The Elusive Statehood Of Afghanistan: Navigating A Complex Political Landscape

Afghanistan is a landlocked country in South-Central Asia. It is bordered by Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and China. The country is predominantly mountainous, with plains in the north and southwest. Kabul, the country's capital and largest city, serves as its political centre.

Afghanistan's history has been marked by extensive warfare, including coups, invasions, insurgencies, and civil wars. The modern state of Afghanistan began with the Durrani Afghan Empire in the 18th century, although Dost Mohammad Khan is sometimes considered the founder of the first modern Afghan state.

The country's strategic location along the historic Silk Road has made it a target for numerous military campaigns by various empires, including the Persians, Alexander the Great, the Maurya Empire, Arab Muslims, the Mongols, the British, the Soviet Union, and most recently, a US-led coalition.

Afghanistan's recent history has been characterised by civil unrest, with the Soviet Union invading in 1979 and the Taliban seizing power in 1996. The Taliban were removed from power following the US-led invasion in 2001, but they returned to power in 2021 after capturing Kabul and overthrowing the government.

The Taliban government remains internationally unrecognized, and the country continues to face challenges such as high levels of terrorism, poverty, and child malnutrition. Afghanistan remains among the world's least developed countries, ranking 180th in the Human Development Index.

The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan

The Taliban, a Sunni Islamic fundamentalist and predominantly Pashtun movement, had previously controlled most of Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. They imposed a harsh interpretation of Islamic law, cracking down on women's rights and restricting press freedoms. The group was ousted from power by a US-led campaign in October 2001, following their refusal to hand over Osama bin Laden after the 9/11 attacks.

In the two decades following their ouster, the Taliban regrouped and waged an insurgency against the US-backed government in Kabul. They took advantage of corruption within the Afghan security forces and the US focus on Iraq to regain control of much of the Afghan countryside.

In February 2020, the US and the Taliban signed a peace deal, the Doha Agreement, which set a timeline for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. However, the Taliban quickly resumed attacks on Afghan security forces and civilians, and by the summer of 2021, they had launched a full-scale offensive, threatening government-controlled urban areas and seizing border crossings.

On August 15, 2021, Taliban fighters entered the capital, Kabul, and President Ashraf Ghani fled the country. The Afghan government collapsed, and the Taliban announced they had taken control of the presidential palace and were establishing checkpoints to maintain security. The speed of the Taliban's advance and the collapse of the Afghan government took US officials and allies by surprise.

The Taliban's return to power has had devastating consequences for the country. They have imposed strict laws restricting women's rights, including banning girls from attending secondary school and prohibiting women from working outside the home. The economy has floundered, with malnutrition soaring and hundreds of thousands of jobs lost. The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan has been exacerbated by the pause in aid from some countries and international organizations, as well as international isolation.

The Taliban's takeover has also raised concerns among the international community about the country once again becoming a safe haven for terrorist groups, particularly al-Qaeda. While the Taliban have pledged to prevent Afghanistan from being used as a base for attacks, analysts and US military officials worry that the group could provide safe haven to al-Qaeda and other extremist organizations.

The US-led invasion of Afghanistan

The Taliban had seized around 85% of Afghanistan's territory and the capital city of Kabul, effectively confining the Northern Alliance to Badakhshan Province and smaller surrounding areas. The invasion, led by the US and the UK, began on October 7, 2001, and marked the first phase of what would become the 20-year-long War in Afghanistan.

The invasion was covertly initiated on September 26, with a CIA team known as Jawbreaker entering the country to work with anti-Taliban allies. The invasion was publicly marked by US and UK air strikes on Taliban targets on October 7, 2001. The Northern Alliance, with heavy assistance from the US, took control of Kabul on November 13, and the Taliban retreated without a fight.

The fall of Kandahar on December 6 marked the end of Taliban power. The US and its allies relied primarily on the Northern Alliance and anti-Taliban Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan. The invasion was swift, with the Taliban losing power just two months after the invasion began.

The Soviet-Afghan War

The war began after the Soviets, under the command of Leonid Brezhnev, launched an invasion of Afghanistan to support the local pro-Soviet government. The war resulted in the deaths of approximately 3,000,000 Afghans, while millions more fled from the country as refugees. The Soviet troops occupied Afghanistan's major cities and all main arteries of communication, whereas the mujahideen waged guerrilla warfare in small groups across the 80% of the country that was not subject to uncontested Soviet control. The Soviets used aerial power to deal harshly with both Afghan resistance and civilians, levelling villages to deny safe haven to the mujahideen, destroying vital irrigation ditches, and other scorched-earth tactics.

The Soviet government had initially planned to swiftly secure Afghanistan's towns and road networks, stabilise the People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) government, and withdraw all of their military forces in a span of six months to one year. However, they were met with fierce resistance from Afghan guerrillas and experienced great operational difficulties on the rugged mountainous terrain. By the mid-1980s, the Soviet military presence in Afghanistan had increased to approximately 115,000 troops, and fighting across the country intensified. By mid-1987, reformist Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev announced that the Soviet military would begin a complete withdrawal from Afghanistan. The final wave of disengagement was initiated on 15 May 1988, and on 15 February 1989, the last Soviet military column occupying Afghanistan crossed into the Uzbek SSR.

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan

The Taliban, which uses the term "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" to describe its government, introduced members of its interim government after occupying Kabul and asked the United Nations to accept its representation in the organisation. Despite their effective rule over much of Afghanistan, the government was not recognised by the United Nations during their first period of rule.

The Kingdom of Afghanistan

Emir Amanullah Khan was keen on modernizing Afghanistan, provoking several uprisings led by his conservative opponents. One such rebellion broke out while he was visiting Europe in 1927. He abdicated in favour of his brother Inayatullah Khan, who only ruled for three days before the leader of the rebellion, Habibullāh Kalakāni, took power and reinstated the Emirate.

After 10 months, Amanullah Khan's Minister of War, Mohammad Nadir, returned from exile in India. His armies ousted the Saqqawist government and sacked Kabul. Afterwards, Nadir's forces apprehended and subsequently executed Kalakāni. Mohammed Nadir reinstated the kingdom, was proclaimed King of Afghanistan as Mohammad Nadir Shah in October 1929, and went on to revert the reformist path of the last king, Amanullah Khan.

Mohammed Nadir Shah was succeeded by his son, Mohammed Zahir Shah, whose rule started in 1933 and lasted for 39 years. Zahir Shah, the last King of Afghanistan, was eventually overthrown by his own cousin, Mohammed Daoud Khan, who successfully ended the centuries-old monarchy and established a republic.

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