The Belarus Conflict: A Comprehensive Overview

Belarus's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been a source of concern for regional security and the country's relations with the West. As a close ally of Russia, Belarus has supported its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, allowing Russian Armed Forces to conduct military drills on its territory and providing access to military airbases and army installations. Despite Belarusian leader Lukashenko's assurances that the country's armed forces would not participate directly in the conflict, there have been reports of Belarusian troops in Ukraine and the presence of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus. The involvement of Belarus has been condemned by Western countries, with the EU, US, UK, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions. While Lukashenko has stated that Belarus does not want to engage in war, the country continues to prepare for potential conflict through military exercises and increased rhetoric, raising tensions in the region.

Belarus's provision of territory and infrastructure to Russia

Belarus has provided Russia with territory and infrastructure to support its invasion of Ukraine. In the prelude to the invasion, Belarus allowed Russian forces to perform weeks-long military drills on its territory. After the drills, the troops did not exit Belarus as expected but remained in the country. Belarus also allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv.

Russia has also been given full access to Belarus' military airbases and army installations. On the day of the invasion, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief reported that four ballistic missiles were launched from Belarus towards southwestern Ukraine. Satellite images have also shown missile launchers, planes, and helicopters stationed in Belarus.

In addition, there have been reports of Belarusian troops fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine. However, the leader of Belarus, Aleksander Lukashenko, has denied these claims and stated that the Belarusian Armed Forces would not participate directly in the conflict. As of early 2023, the Belarusian Armed Forces have not been involved in fighting against Ukraine and have remained on Belarusian territory.

The involvement of Belarus in the Russian invasion has been condemned by Western countries, including the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan, which have imposed sanctions against Belarus.

The Belarusian opposition to the invasion

Despite Belarus's support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there has been notable opposition to the conflict within Belarus. This opposition has come from the general population, prominent individuals, and Belarusian activists and dissidents.

Public Opinion in Belarus

According to a survey by Chatham House, 79% of Belarusians find the idea of Belarusian soldiers dying in the war between Russia and Ukraine unacceptable. More than 50% of respondents thought that Belarus should remain neutral. 74% of Belarusians, regardless of their political stance, had a negative attitude towards any Belarusian involvement in the war.

Condemnation of War by Opposition Leaders

Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya condemned Lukashenko for participating in the invasion and expressed her belief that Ukraine would win the war. She also suggested that Lukashenko is no longer in control of the Belarusian military and supported Volodymyr Zelenskyy's calls to close the skies over Ukraine. Tsikhanouskaya declared that any orders for Belarusian military commanders to join the war on the Russian side would be criminal and urged soldiers to disobey such orders.

Another opposition leader, Pavel Latushka, called for similar sanctions against Lukashenko as those imposed on Putin, stating that rockets were fired at Ukraine from Belarusian territory, and that Lukashenko is as much an aggressor as Putin. Latushka also called for Belarus to be recognised as a territory temporarily occupied by Russia, arguing that the Belarusian regime had lost its independence in decision-making and control over the country.

Condemnation of War by Journalists and Celebrities

Several Belarusian journalists, writers, celebrities, and athletes publicly condemned the invasion. Belarusian Nobel Laureate Svetlana Alexievich called Lukashenko's actions a 'crime' and said that if Belarusian troops are sent to Ukraine, "heroism for them will be not to shoot." Writer Alhierd Bacharevič declared that Belarus, Ukraine, Lithuania, and Russia all share an enemy in "Putin's empire, Putinism, Putin's fascism!". More than 80 representatives of the Belarusian film industry, as well as tennis star Victoria Azarenka and former Olympic swimmer Aliaksandra Herasimenia, also publicly opposed the war.

Anti-War Public Protests and Acts of Sabotage in Belarus

Despite tight security measures, protests against the invasion were held in cities across Belarus on 27 February 2022, during which around 800 people were detained. Belarusian activists disrupted the work of the Belarusian Railway, which transports Russian military trains, by destroying control points, causing short circuits, and committing other acts of sabotage. By April 2022, there had been around 80 acts of sabotage on the railways, prompting the authorities to instruct a special military division to patrol the railways in plain clothes.

Belarusian Volunteers Serving in Ukrainian Armed Forces

Belarusians have also actively supported Ukraine by fighting alongside them. In spring 2022, it was reported that over 200 Belarusian citizens had joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with an additional 300 volunteers coming through Poland. By July 2023, this number had grown to around 450. Belarusians have created separate battalions and regiments, such as the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment, to defend Kyiv.

Anti-War Actions by the Belarusian Diaspora

Belarusians living outside of Belarus and Ukraine have expressed their solidarity with Ukraine by attending anti-war rallies, helping organisations dealing with Ukrainian refugees, and providing financial and humanitarian aid.

Belarus's involvement in war crimes

Belarus has been accused of being complicit in war crimes due to its involvement in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As a close ally of Russia, Belarus has supported its eastern neighbour in the conflict. Before the start of the offensive, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to conduct military drills on its territory. However, the Russian troops did not leave as agreed and Belarus allowed Russia to launch part of its invasion from Belarusian territory, providing the shortest land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. Belarus has also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its soil and fire upon Ukrainian targets.

There have been several reports from the Belarusian opposition and the Ukrainian military that Belarusian troops were in Ukraine, fighting alongside Russians. However, these claims have been denied by the leader of Belarus, Aleksander Lukashenko, who stated that the Belarusian Armed Forces (BAF) would not participate directly in the conflict. As of early 2023, the BAF has not been involved in fighting against Ukraine and has remained on Belarusian territory. Lukashenko has also assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he would not involve Belarusian armed forces on Russia's side.

Despite Lukashenko's assurances, there is evidence of Belarusian involvement in war crimes. The Belarusian state and state-affiliated organisations have actively participated in the forced transfer of Ukrainian children to Belarus. These children are held in recreational camps, with some reports indicating re-education efforts by the Belarusian state. This is a violation of international humanitarian law, which states that children in war zones should be evacuated to neutral third countries.

Additionally, Belarus has offered logistical support to Russia's war effort, resupplying ammunition and allowing Russian soldiers wounded in Ukraine to be treated in Belarusian hospitals. Belarus has also served as a platform for Russian air and missile strikes against Ukrainian civilians, with strikes hitting a Ukrainian kindergarten and an apartment complex, resulting in civilian casualties.

The involvement of Belarus in the Russian invasion has been condemned internationally, with the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions. Belarusian opposition leaders, such as Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, have also condemned Lukashenko's participation in the invasion.

The stationing of nuclear weapons in Belarus

In March 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus under a nuclear-sharing agreement. This move was justified as a response to NATO's military support for Ukraine and was intended as a warning to the alliance. Putin asserted that Russia would maintain control of the weapons and would not violate its international obligations on nuclear non-proliferation. However, it marked a significant shift in Russia's nuclear posture, as it had previously refrained from deploying nuclear weapons outside its borders.

The transfer of nuclear weapons to Belarus expands Russia's nuclear strike capability along NATO's eastern border and is seen as an attempt to intimidate the alliance. Belarus's proximity to Ukraine and its shared border also raise concerns about the potential impact on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The presence of nuclear weapons in the region increases the risk of escalation and severely affects regional and global security.

The decision to station nuclear weapons in Belarus has been criticised by the representative of Lithuania, who warned that Belarus is breaching its obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapon state. Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has also condemned the move, stating that it contradicts the will of the Belarusian people. Additionally, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy referred to it as a step towards internal destabilisation.

The deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus has heightened tensions and contributed to a complex geopolitical landscape. It remains to be seen whether this move will lead to further escalation in the region or if diplomatic efforts can de-escalate the situation and find a resolution that ensures the safety and security of all parties involved.

Belarus's role in the 2014 Ukrainian crisis

Belarus played a complex role in the 2014 Ukrainian crisis. Officially, the country acted as a mediator and peacemaker, taking a neutral stance on Russia's annexation of Crimea. This stance helped reinforce Belarus's image as a "donor of security and stability" in the region. However, the country's close ties with Russia, which have been developing since the early 1990s, meant that it also served as a crucial strategic partner for Russia. Belarus is important to Russia for two key reasons. Firstly, it serves as a transit route for over 20% of Russia's energy exports to the EU. Secondly, Belarus provides Russia with its shortest access route to the Kaliningrad oblast through the Suwalki corridor, a 65-mile strip of land on the Polish-Lithuanian border that provides access to the Baltic Sea.

Following the 2014 crisis, Belarus began to improve its relations with the West, which led to a significant worsening of its relationship with Russia. However, after the outbreak of protests in Belarus against voting irregularities in the 2020 presidential election, the country's leader, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, demonstrated increased loyalty to Russia and Putin. This shift made Belarus a crucial ally in Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In the lead-up to the invasion, Lukashenka allowed Russian armed forces to conduct military drills on Belarusian territory and permitted Russian troops and equipment to be transported to the Ukrainian border. Lukashenka also revoked Belarus's neutral stance on Crimea, recognising the peninsula as a de facto part of Russian territory.

In summary, while Belarus presented itself as a neutral mediator during the 2014 Ukrainian crisis, its close political, economic, and military ties with Russia meant that it played a strategic role in supporting Russia's interests in the region.

Frequently asked questions