Belarus: Putin's Next Land Grab?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been accused of planning to seize parts of Europe, with Belarus being the next target. In 2017, Russia and Belarus held joint war games, with NATO estimating that over 70,000 troops were involved—far more than the 12,700 claimed by Moscow. This show of military might has sparked fears that Putin intends to annex Belarus, similarly to Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014. The possibility of Russian aggression in Belarus has raised concerns about the country's independence and the potential impact on NATO allies in the region.

Putin's land grab in Belarus could threaten Lithuania and other NATO states

Russia's recent dispatch of 30,000 troops to Belarus has effectively taken over control of that country while threatening Ukraine, Lithuania, and other NATO states. This move brings Russia's border flush up against Lithuania's 420-mile border with Belarus, allowing Putin to set up new military bases that threaten the Baltic states and Poland.

Putin's actions in Belarus are part of a broader pattern of aggression and expansionism. He has previously invaded Georgia and Ukraine, annexed Crimea, and conducted military drills near NATO borders. These actions have been justified by blaming the West and claiming "NATO encirclement." Putin's imperialistic motives are driven by his resentment of the Soviet collapse and a desire to reverse the verdict of 1991, when many former Soviet states gained independence.

The threat to Lithuania and other NATO states is significant. The Suwalki Gap, a narrow piece of land connecting NATO members Poland and Lithuania, could be a target of Russian military aggression. Capturing this region would cut off the three Baltic states from other NATO countries. The Kremlin could also exploit historic ethnic tensions in the area to further its goals.

Putin's actions in Belarus set a dangerous precedent and pose a direct challenge to the rules-based liberal order. They demonstrate his ambition to forcefully take over "neutral" countries and his willingness to exploit local conflicts to stir up separatism and justify aggression. This pattern of behaviour poses a threat not only to Ukraine but also to the broader region, including Lithuania and other NATO allies.

Putin's Belarus takeover may be a blueprint for his plans for Ukraine

Russia's takeover of Belarus may be a precursor to its intentions for Ukraine. By sending 30,000 troops to Belarus under the guise of military exercises, Russia has effectively taken control of the country while threatening Ukraine, Lithuania, and other NATO states. This move has brought Russia's border flush with Lithuania, enabling Putin to set up new military bases that threaten the Baltic states and Poland.

Putin's actions in Belarus demonstrate his ambition to forcefully take over "neutral" countries, which were once under Soviet rule, and integrate them into military and economic dependence on Russia. This strategy is evident in his demands for Ukraine to become a "neutral" country and his attempts to destroy nascent or developing democracies in Eastern European countries that are not part of NATO or the European Union.

Putin's obsession with Ukraine stems from his determination to reverse the verdict of 1991, when Ukraine gained independence from the Soviet Union. He regards modern Ukraine's efforts to secure a democratic European future as a potential catalyst for the breakup of the Russian Federation. Putin's belief in his historic mission, coupled with his resentment towards the injustices of the Soviet collapse, fuels his imperial appetite.

The West must recognize that Putin's ambitions do not stop at Ukraine. His invasion of Ukraine and takeover of Belarus are part of a broader pattern of aggression, including previous incursions into Georgia, Syria, and other non-NATO Soviet successor states. Putin has also expressed imperialistic motives, claiming that his invasion of Ukraine is a quest to return "historically Russian lands."

To prevent further aggression, the West must provide watertight security guarantees for Ukraine and commit to dramatic increases in defense spending. By standing united and vigilant, Western leaders can deter Putin from implementing his blueprint for Ukraine and protect the sovereignty of Eastern European nations.

Putin's actions in Belarus could be a test to see if the West will let him take over neutral countries

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been accused of planning a "massive Europe land grab" as his army marches into the continent. In 2017, Russia and Belarus held joint war games called Zapad 2017, which Ukraine feared was a cover for Russia to snatch land from neighbouring countries. This fear was exacerbated by the fact that Russia has previously held similar drills before seizing territory, such as the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

While Belarus has historically been considered a neutral country, not aligned with either Western Europe or Russia, this dynamic appears to be shifting. In February 2022, Russia dispatched 30,000 troops to Belarus for military exercises, which effectively took control of the country while threatening Ukraine, Lithuania, and other NATO states. This move by Putin is seen as a test to see if the West will let him forcefully take over neutral countries.

Putin's actions in Belarus have significant implications for the region. With the Russian troops' presence, Russia's border has effectively moved eastward, right up against the 420-mile border that Lithuania shares with Belarus. This new military buildup in Belarus poses a dangerous threat to NATO countries like Lithuania and Poland, as it could be used to cut off the Baltic states from the rest of NATO.

Putin's actions in Belarus are particularly concerning given his imperialistic motives and ambitions beyond Ukraine. He has referred to his invasion of Ukraine as a quest to return "historically Russian lands," leaving the door open for further wars of aggression against other former vassals of the Russian Empire, including Finland, Poland, the Baltic states, Belarus, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Central Asia.

Putin's pattern of behaviour suggests that he is willing to violate international norms and endure economic sanctions to pursue his expansionist agenda. His actions in Belarus could be a prelude to more aggressive moves, testing the resolve of the West and potentially leading to further land grabs in Europe.

Belarus is a laboratory for Putin

Belarus has become a "laboratory" for Putin's plans for Ukraine and other sovereign states that were once under Soviet rule. By dispatching 30,000 troops to Belarus, Putin has effectively taken over control of the country while threatening Ukraine, Lithuania, and other NATO states. This move has brought Russia's border flush up against Lithuania's 420-mile border with Belarus, posing a dangerous new threat to NATO countries.

Putin is testing whether the West will let him forcefully take over "neutral" countries, as Belarus once was and as Putin is demanding Ukraine becomes. If successful, Putin can set up new military bases in Belarus that would threaten the Baltic states and Poland. Russian troops would be in a position to cut off all three Baltic states—Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia—from the rest of NATO.

Putin's actions in Belarus prove that his ambitions don't stop at Ukraine. He routinely describes the current invasion as a quest to return "historically Russian lands", leaving the door open for further wars of aggression against other former vassals of the Russian Empire, including Finland, Poland, the Baltic states, Belarus, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Central Asia.

Putin's pattern of aggression is clear. He justifies his military adventurism by blaming the West and subjecting audiences to a constant deluge of scaremongering about "NATO encirclement." Whenever his domestic popularity dips, he escalates an ongoing conflict or launches a new offensive, as invading a weaker neighbour delivers a cheaper and faster ratings boost than improving Russia's dystopian healthcare system.

Putin's move on Belarus is a litmus test for whether the United States and Western Europe will permit him to destroy nascent or developing democracies in Eastern European countries that don't belong to NATO or the European Union. The message from Belarus is that the West can't afford to let Putin use a variation of the Belarus model against Ukraine or any other country.

Putin's next land grab is unlikely to be a NATO ally

Putin's next target is more likely to be a non-NATO nation in the EU, such as Finland or Sweden. By attacking a non-NATO country, Putin avoids the risk of a proportional response from NATO allies. Additionally, by targeting a European country, he can boost his popularity at home and deliver a quick and cheap ratings boost.

Putin's invasion of Ukraine has been justified as an attempt to enforce his version of the Monroe Doctrine, restore a strategic buffer zone, and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Every strategic planning document of the Russian Federation since 2000 has codified Moscow's strategic goals of re-integrating post-Soviet neighbours into a supranational alliance called the Eurasian Union. However, there are no plans to "integrate" or take by force a NATO member nation in any of Russia's official speeches or doctrinal documents.

U.S. intelligence assessments further contradict the idea that Putin will invade a NATO member. According to the 2024 Annual Threat Assessment, Russia does not want a direct military conflict with the U.S. and NATO and will continue asymmetric activity below the threshold of military conflict. Additionally, Russia's military forces will face a multi-year recovery due to extensive losses during the Ukraine conflict.

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