Azerbaijan's Strength: A Force To Be Reckoned With?

Azerbaijan, officially the Republic of Azerbaijan, is a transcontinental country in Eastern Europe and Western Asia. It is a unitary semi-presidential republic with a population of around 10 million people. Azerbaijan has diplomatic relations with 182 countries and is a member of 38 international organisations, including the UN, the Council of Europe, the Non-Aligned Movement, the OSCE, and the NATO PfP program. It is also an active member of the Organization of Turkic States and the TÜRKSOY community.

Azerbaijan's military strength is ranked 59th out of 145 countries in the 2024 Global Firepower review. The country has a defence budget of $3.77 billion and its active personnel number 126,400.

Azerbaijan is an energy-rich nation, with its annual output of natural gas roughly equal to 5% of Russia's. It is also an important ally to the West as a secular Islamic nation with close ties to Israel.

Azerbaijan's military capabilities

• A total population of 10,420,515, with 5,106,052 available for military service.
• 441,400 total military personnel, including 126,400 active personnel, 300,000 reserve personnel, and 15,000 paramilitary personnel.
• 144 aircraft, including 12 fighters, 11 attack types, 2 fixed-wing transports, 33 trainers, and 86 helicopters.
• 920 tanks, 29,312 vehicles, 294 self-propelled artillery, 300 towed artillery, and 218 MLRS (rocket artillery).
• A navy with 4 submarines, 15 patrol vessels, and 7 mine warfare vessels.
• A defense budget of $3,770,000,0000.

Azerbaijan's military has seen combat in recent years, most notably in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, which resulted in the return of seven districts and parts of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijani control. The country has also contributed peacekeeping forces to Iraq and Afghanistan.

Azerbaijan's defense industry manufactures a range of military equipment, including small arms, artillery systems, tanks, armour, night vision devices, aviation bombs, UAVs, military vehicles, and military planes and helicopters.

Azerbaijan's energy resources

Azerbaijan is a major producer of oil and natural gas, with two-thirds of its energy coming from fossil gas and almost a third from oil. The country has 7 billion barrels of oil reserves, accounting for 0.4% of global reserves, and an estimated 1.3 trillion to 2.5 trillion cubic metres of proven natural gas reserves. Azerbaijan's energy mix is heavily concentrated in fossil fuels, with oil and gas accounting for more than 98% of the total supply.

The Azeri-Chirag-Deepwater Gunashli (ACG) field, located about 100 km east of Baku, is the largest oil field in the Azerbaijan sector of the Caspian Basin. It was discovered in the early 1970s when Azerbaijan was part of the Soviet Union and comprises a series of individual reservoir horizons located 2,000 to 3,500 metres beneath the Caspian seabed.

Azerbaijan has a long history of oil production, dating back to the ancient period. In 1847, the world's first industrially drilled oil well was established in the country. By 1899, Azerbaijan produced half of the world's oil volume. Today, the country's remaining commercial liquid reserves (crude and condensate) are indicated to be around 7 billion barrels, with offshore production in the Caspian Sea accounting for about one-quarter of the total.

The Shah Deniz gas field is one of the world's largest, with an estimated 1,000 billion cubic metres of natural gas reserves. While Azerbaijan is more prominent in global oil than gas, gas extraction is expected to significantly contribute to the economy in the coming decades.

Azerbaijan has invested heavily in modernising its energy infrastructure, including electricity generation. The country's electricity sector plays a leading role in its social and economic development, with large investments in power generation and transmission resulting in improved power supply. Natural gas is the main generation resource, accounting for 90-to-95% of electricity production, while hydropower accounts for 4-to-6%.

Azerbaijan has also been taking steps towards renewable energy. The country adopted a Law on Using Renewable Energy Sources in Electricity Production in May 2021 and aims for renewable energy to provide 30% of electricity-generating capacity by 2030.

Azerbaijan's geopolitical influence

• Strategic Location: Azerbaijan enjoys a strategic location at the boundary of Eastern Europe and West Asia, in the South Caucasus region. It shares borders with Russia, Georgia, Armenia, Iran, and Turkey, and is bounded by the Caspian Sea to the east. This location gives Azerbaijan a foothold in two continents and proximity to major powers.
• Energy Resources: Azerbaijan is rich in oil and natural gas reserves, with the energy sector being a significant driver of its economy. The country is an important energy supplier to Europe, offering an alternative to Russian gas. The Southern Gas Corridor, which pipes gas to southern Italy via Georgia, Turkey, and Greece, contributes to energy diversification and reduces Europe's dependence on Russian energy sources.
• Diplomatic Relations: Azerbaijan maintains diplomatic relations with 182 countries and is a member of numerous international organizations, including the United Nations, the Council of Europe, the Organization of Turkic States, and the NATO PfP program. It has a special relationship with Turkey and is Israel's closest Muslim partner. Azerbaijan's strategic importance to the West, particularly the US and Europe, is also underscored by its secular Muslim-majority status and its ability to provide energy diversity.
• Military Strength: Azerbaijan's military strength is ranked 59th out of 145 countries by Global Firepower in 2024. Its military capabilities include a mix of land, air, and naval forces, with a particular focus on land forces and artillery. The country has been modernizing and investing in its military, with a defence budget of $3.77 billion in 2020.
• Regional Influence: Azerbaijan has exerted influence in its region, particularly in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia. Following the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, Azerbaijan regained control of several districts and parts of Nagorno-Karabakh. This has shifted the regional balance of power and demonstrated Azerbaijan's ability to assert its territorial claims.

Azerbaijan's human rights record

Azerbaijan's government severely restricts the freedoms of expression, assembly, and association. In 2023, the government violently crushed two separate grassroots protests over environmental issues, highlighting their intolerance for public expression of legitimate concerns. The media also remains heavily restricted, with journalists facing violence, harassment, and arbitrary arrests.

In terms of civil liberties, there are increasing restrictions on press freedom and political repression. The government has been accused of authoritarianism under President Heydar Aliyev and his son, Ilham Aliyev, who became president in 2003. Ilham Aliyev's rule has been criticised for election fraud, economic inequality, and domestic corruption.

Azerbaijan has also been criticised for its treatment of LGBT individuals, who face ill-treatment, extortion, arbitrary detention, and discrimination.

In the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, hate speech against Armenians is prevalent in the media, and peace-building initiatives involving civil society actors are often met with physical assaults. The Lezgin and Talysh people also face discrimination and repression.

Freedom of religion is substantially curtailed, as the Azerbaijani government follows a strictly secular and anti-religious ideology. Religious literature is censored, and religious institutions are closed down if they are deemed objectionable by the state. Clerics are not allowed to run for political office, and political speech by religious institutions is forbidden.

Despite these issues, some progress has been made. In 2023, a historic joint statement between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaderships announced Azerbaijan's intention to release Armenian prisoners of war and work towards normalising relations. Additionally, Azerbaijan has taken measures to preserve the environment and increase protected areas.

Azerbaijan's international relations

Azerbaijan has diplomatic relations with 182 countries and holds membership in 38 international organisations, including the United Nations, the Council of Europe, the Non-Aligned Movement, the OSCE, and the NATO PfP program. It is also an observer state of the World Trade Organization.

Azerbaijan has a "special relationship" with Turkey, and is one of the few majority-Muslim countries to develop bilateral strategic and economic relations with Israel. Azerbaijan is also a member of NATO's Partnership for Peace program, and has contributed to peacekeeping efforts in Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq.

Azerbaijan has an embassy in the United States, and the US recognised Azerbaijan's independence in 1991. The two countries have since enjoyed good relations, with the US providing military aid to Azerbaijan since 2012.

Azerbaijan is also a member of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and has good relations with the European Union, in the framework of its Eastern European Neighbourhood Policy.

Azerbaijan's relationship with Armenia is more fraught, with the two countries having fought three wars since 1918. There are no formal diplomatic relations between the two countries, and citizens of Armenia are forbidden from entering Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan is also a member of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

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