Azerbaijan: A Fragmented State? Exploring The Country's Complexities

Azerbaijan is a transcontinental country in Eastern Europe and Western Asia. It is a part of the South Caucasus region and has a population of over 10 million people. The country has a tumultuous history, having been ruled by various empires and incorporated into the Soviet Union in the 20th century. Since gaining independence in 1991, Azerbaijan has faced several challenges, including the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia and accusations of human rights abuses and corruption. With a unique geopolitical position between Russia and Iran, Azerbaijan has had to navigate complex regional dynamics and maintain a delicate balance in its foreign policy. This has led to a perception of Azerbaijan as a fragmented state in a complex and evolving geopolitical landscape.

Azerbaijan's foreign policy

The US established diplomatic relations with Azerbaijan in 1992, following its independence from the Soviet Union. The two countries work together to promote European energy security, expand bilateral trade and investment, and combat terrorism and transnational threats. The US is committed to strengthening democracy and promoting economic diversification in Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan is an active member of international coalitions fighting international terrorism and was one of the first countries to offer support after the September 11 attacks. The country is also a member of NATO's Partnership for Peace program, contributing to peacekeeping efforts in Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq.

The country may eventually apply for EU membership, and it maintains good relations with the union in the framework of its Eastern European Neighbourhood Policy.

Azerbaijan is also an observer state of the World Trade Organization and a correspondent at the International Telecommunication Union. It was elected to membership in the UN's Human Rights Council in 2006 and served as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council in 2011.

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians until 2023, and seven surrounding districts, inhabited mostly by Azerbaijanis until their expulsion during the 1990s.

In 1923, the Soviet Union established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, home to a 95% ethnically Armenian population, within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. In 1988, ethnic Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh demanded the transfer of what was then the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast from Soviet Azerbaijan to Armenia. As the Soviet Union collapsed, tensions grew into an outright war.

The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The war was won by Armenia, and led to the occupation of regions around Soviet-era Nagorno-Karabakh. There were expulsions of ethnic Armenians from Azerbaijan and ethnic Azerbaijanis from Armenia and the Armenian-controlled areas. The ceasefire ending the war, signed in 1994 in Bishkek, was followed by two decades of relative stability, which significantly deteriorated in the 2010s.

In late 2020, the large-scale Second Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in thousands of casualties and a significant Azerbaijani victory. An armistice was established by a tripartite ceasefire agreement on November 10, resulting in Azerbaijan regaining all of the occupied territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh as well as capturing one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself.

In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched an offensive against the breakaway Republic of Artsakh in Nagorno-Karabakh that resulted in the dissolution and reintegration of Artsakh on January 1, 2024, and the flight of nearly all ethnic Armenians from the region.

Azerbaijan's economic development

Azerbaijan's economy is heavily dependent on oil and gas exports, with the energy sector accounting for two-thirds of its GDP. The transition to oil production in the 1990s led to rapid economic growth, but since 2014, GDP growth has slowed down. Azerbaijan's economy is also characterised by corruption and inequality, with the country's oil wealth strengthening the regime of Ilham Aliyev and enriching the ruling elites.

The history of the oil industry in Azerbaijan dates back to 1847, but it was in the late 19th century that Baku became a hub for world-scale industrial investment. During the Soviet period, Baku oil was crucial, providing 75% of the whole consumption, including for WWII. However, the wide-scale exploitation of oil reserves for industrial reasons only came in the late 20th century.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, oil production dropped dramatically due to the conflict with Armenia, outdated equipment, and machinery. This was followed by a number of fruitful oil contracts, with the "Contract of the Century" in 1994 and the deal on the Shah Deniz gas field in 1996, bringing in a large amount of international investment.

Azerbaijan has the largest agricultural basin in the region, with about 54.9% of its land being agricultural. The country also has the largest agricultural scientific research institutes, which focus on areas such as horticulture, viticulture, cotton growing, and medicinal plants. Livestock, dairy products, and wine and spirits are important farm products.

The country has also been making efforts to diversify its economy. In 2007, mining and hydrocarbon industries accounted for over 95% of the economy, but since then, there has been some progress. The government has stated its intention to create a high-tech sector, and tourism is also an important part of the economy, with the country being a popular destination for religious, spa, and health care tourism.

Azerbaijan's economic growth has significantly reduced poverty over two decades, and the country ranks 91st on the Human Development Index. However, there is still a need for reforms to boost private sector investment, reduce the state footprint, tackle competitiveness issues, and develop human capital.

Azerbaijan's political system

Azerbaijan is a unitary semi-presidential republic with a presidential government system. The country is led by a president and a prime minister.

The country's constitution, which was adopted in 1995, states that the president is elected for a seven-year term by direct elections. The president is authorised to form the Cabinet, a collective executive body that is accountable to both the president and the National Assembly. The Cabinet consists of the prime minister, their deputies, and ministers.

The legislative power is held by the unicameral National Assembly, which consists of 125 deputies who are elected for a five-year term. The parliamentary elections are held every five years, on the first Sunday of November.

The judicial power is vested in the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Court, and the Economic Court. The president nominates the judges in these courts.

Azerbaijan's human rights record

Azerbaijan's government severely restricts the freedoms of expression, assembly, and association. Government critics, journalists, media representatives, and human rights defenders face violence, harassment, and arbitrary arrests. In 2023, the number of individuals jailed under politically motivated charges doubled compared to the previous year, totalling more than 230 people. The government has also been accused of using restrictive NGO legislation to impede civil society groups from operating independently and accessing funding.

Azerbaijan's record on freedom of expression has been of particular concern. The country ranks 167 out of 180 countries on the Press Freedom Index, and its press freedom status is classified as "not free". In 2022, a new restrictive media law was adopted, requiring media outlets to register with the authorities. Since then, the government has initiated legal action to close independent media entities that were denied registration on arbitrary grounds.

In addition, Azerbaijan has been criticised for its treatment of LGBT individuals, who face ill-treatment, extortion, arbitrary detention, and discrimination by state and non-state actors.

The country's rights record was further called into question during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabagh Conflict, in which the Azerbaijani military committed "severe and grave human rights violations" against prisoners of war and other protected persons of Armenian ethnic or national origin, including extrajudicial killings, torture, and arbitrary detention, according to the UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination.

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