Azerbaijan's Territorial Gains: Extent And Impact

Azerbaijan has captured a significant amount of territory in recent years, particularly in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has been a long-standing issue between Azerbaijan and Armenia, with the region being internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but populated by ethnic Armenians. Since the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, Azerbaijan has gained control over several districts, including Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Zangilan, and Qubadli. Additionally, Armenia agreed to withdraw its forces and return the Agdam, Kalbajar, and Lachin districts to Azerbaijani control. These agreements were part of a Russian-brokered ceasefire deal enforced by Russian peacekeepers. According to reports, Azerbaijan has occupied at least 215 square kilometers of Armenian territory since 2020, with continuous advances being made along the border. The situation remains dynamic, and the control of specific territories can shift back and forth. The conflict has resulted in thousands of casualties and the displacement of civilians, with ongoing negotiations and ceasefire attempts mediated by Russia, France, and the United States.

Azerbaijan's capture of Armenian territory

Azerbaijan has captured significant Armenian territory since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, with reports suggesting that Azerbaijani forces have occupied at least 215 square kilometres of Armenian land. This includes advances into several regions south of Nagorno-Karabakh, an area between Armenia and Iran.

In October 2020, Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, announced that his country's forces had captured the city of Shusha (known as Shushi to Armenians), the second-largest city in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. This claim was denied by Armenian officials, who stated that Shushi remained an "unattainable pipe dream" for Azerbaijan. However, independent military analysts using open-source imagery have confirmed that Azerbaijan has indeed made significant advances along a tongue of land bordering Iran, approaching the international border of Armenia.

The capture of Shusha is of strategic importance as the city is located just 15 kilometres from the enclave's largest city, Stepanakert, and holds particular cultural significance for both Azerbaijanis and Armenians. The Azerbaijani advance has raised concerns about a potential offensive into the heavily populated core of Nagorno-Karabakh, which could result in a mass exodus of Armenians from the region.

Following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, Armenia agreed to withdraw its forces from the Agdam, Kalbajar, and Lachin districts, returning them to Azerbaijani control by November and December 2020, respectively. This agreement was formalised in a Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement, with Russian peacekeepers enforcing the deal. Despite ongoing negotiations and ceasefires, Azerbaijan has continued to make advances into Armenian-held territory, with the latest advance occurring near the border village of Tegh in southern Armenia, where Azerbaijani forces occupied approximately 250 hectares of land.

The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has been ongoing since 1988, with the United Nations Security Council adopting resolutions during the First Nagorno-Karabakh War demanding the withdrawal of all occupying forces from the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. The international community has attempted to mediate the conflict, with France, Russia, and the US co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group to facilitate negotiations. Despite these efforts, the situation on the ground remains dynamic, and the conflict continues to drive a wedge between Armenia and Azerbaijan, causing human suffering and displacement for thousands.

Azerbaijan's policy of aggressive borderization

The term "borderization" refers to the establishment of physical infrastructure, such as fences, barbed wire, and border signs, to demarcate a border and restrict the movement of people and goods. In the context of the South Caucasus, it specifically refers to the process of turning a recognised border on a map into an actual demarcated border between two states, in this case, Armenia and Azerbaijan. This process has been particularly prominent in the southernmost Armenian province of Syunik, which shares a border with Azerbaijan and has a mixed Armenian and Azerbaijani population.

Following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, where Armenian forces were defeated, Azerbaijan retook control of territories along the border and began reinforcing their positions with bases and garrisons. This has led to a state of shock and uncertainty for the residents of Syunik, who now live in close proximity to Azerbaijani military forces. The exact location of the borderline is often unclear, leading to disputes over which state controls various strategic locations.

The international community's response to Azerbaijan's policy of aggressive borderization has been criticised as weak and ineffective. Neutral statements and calls for de-escalation from both sides have done little to deter Azerbaijan's advancements. As a result, there are concerns that Azerbaijan will continue to employ this tactic in the future, especially considering President Aliyev's insistence that any delimitation will be done on Azerbaijan's conditions.

Azerbaijan's gains in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

In the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War of 2020, Azerbaijan made substantial advances and recaptured several regions from Armenian control. These gains included the Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Zangilan, and Qubadli districts. Additionally, as per the terms of the ceasefire agreement, Armenia agreed to withdraw its forces and return the Agdam, Kalbajar, and Lachin districts to Azerbaijani control.

The city of Shusha, known as Shushi to Armenians, was a notable strategic and cultural capture for Azerbaijan. Located just 15 kilometres from the enclave's largest city, Stepanakert, Shusha was considered the Azerbaijani cultural heart of Karabakh. The capture of Shusha sparked celebrations in Baku, with President Ilham Aliyev declaring, ""Dear Shusha, you are free! Karabakh is ours! Karabakh is Azerbaijan!".

Azerbaijan's advances were not limited to the Nagorno-Karabakh region. In April 2023, Azerbaijani forces advanced over 2.5 square kilometres into southern Armenia, near the border village of Tegh. This incursion brought the total area of Armenian sovereign territory occupied by Azerbaijan since 2020 to at least 215 square kilometres.

The gains made by Azerbaijan in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War altered the dynamics of the region and led to a shift in territorial control. The conflict resulted in a significant loss of land for Armenia and the displacement of thousands of Armenians, who were forced to flee their homes.

Azerbaijan's occupation of Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Zangilan, and Qubadli

Fuzuli:

Fuzuli, along with seven surrounding villages, was liberated by the Azerbaijani Armed Forces from Armenian occupation, as announced by President Ilham Aliyev in October 2020. The city and its surrounding areas, home to approximately 144,000 Azerbaijanis, had been under Armenian control since 1993. The liberation of Fuzuli was a significant military achievement, shattering Armenia's strongest fortified defense line, according to Hikmet Hajiyev, an aide to President Aliyev.

Jabrayil:

Jabrayil, nominally the administrative capital of Azerbaijan's Jabrayil District, has been a contested area. It was occupied by Armenian forces during the First Nagorno-Karabakh War in 1993, resulting in the displacement and looting of the local population. However, in October 2020, during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, Azerbaijan regained control of the city. This was confirmed by reporters from Euronews who visited Jabrayil in October 2020, finding it under Azerbaijani control.

Zangilan:

Zangilan, a city in Azerbaijan and the administrative centre of the Zangilan District, has also been a focal point of conflict. Armenian forces occupied the city in 1993 during the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, forcing the Azerbaijani population to flee. However, in October 2020, Azerbaijan recaptured Zangilan, and President Aliyev raised the Azerbaijani flag there in December of the same year. The city has a rich historical heritage, including the "Imam Huseyn" mosque, built between the 17th and 18th centuries.

Qubadli:

Qubadli, including its city centre and some surrounding villages, was liberated by the Azerbaijani army from Armenian occupation, as announced by President Aliyev in October 2020. This was part of the ongoing conflict between the two countries, with Azerbaijan seeking to liberate Upper Karabakh, or Nagorno-Karabakh, from nearly three decades of Armenian occupation.

The occupation of Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Zangilan, and Qubadli by Azerbaijan marks a significant shift in the control of these territories and is part of a broader context of tensions and conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The impact of Azerbaijan's territorial gains on the region

Azerbaijan's territorial gains have had a significant impact on the region, reshaping the geopolitical landscape and leading to a realignment of power dynamics. Since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, Azerbaijan has made steady advances into Armenian-held territories, capturing key districts and expanding its control beyond the initial conflict zone. This has resulted in a shift in the region's balance of power, with Azerbaijan strengthening its position and Armenia facing territorial losses and a subsequent need for strategic reassessment.

One of the most notable impacts of Azerbaijan's territorial gains is the alteration of border dynamics and the subsequent impact on regional security. The capture of districts such as Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Zangilan, and Qubadli has expanded Azerbaijan's presence along its border with Armenia and Iran. This new border configuration has raised questions about the movement of people, trade, and security along these frontiers, with potential implications for regional stability. The borderization policy pursued by Azerbaijan has led to concerns among Armenians, who accuse Azerbaijan of exaggerating their military advances for PR purposes and advancing deeper into Armenian territory under the guise of borderization.

The territorial gains have also had a significant impact on the region's demographics and population distribution. The previously Armenian-occupied territories had a predominantly Azerbaijani population before the First Nagorno-Karabakh War. As a result of the recent conflict and Azerbaijan's gains, there has likely been a shift in the ethnic makeup of these areas, with the potential for increased ethnic tensions and challenges in integrating diverse populations. The United Nations has expressed concern over the displacement of people, with thousands of Azerbaijanis and Armenians becoming internally displaced as a result of the changing control of territories.

The impact of Azerbaijan's territorial gains extends beyond the immediate region, influencing the involvement of external powers. The conflict has drawn the attention and involvement of countries such as Russia, France, and the United States, who have attempted to broker ceasefires and mediate the dispute. Additionally, Turkey's decisive military support for Azerbaijan has added a layer of complexity to regional dynamics, with some international condemnation of its role. The role of external powers in the region is likely to continue evolving as they seek to protect their interests and influence the outcome of territorial disputes.

Lastly, the territorial gains have had a profound impact on the prospects for peace and stability in the region. The ongoing advances by Azerbaijan, even during nominal ceasefires, have highlighted the challenges of reaching a sustainable agreement. While diplomacy continues, with negotiations and meetings between the two countries, the situation on the ground remains dynamic and volatile. The future of the region hinges on the ability of Azerbaijan and Armenia to reach a lasting agreement that addresses the concerns of both sides and provides a pathway to peace.

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