The Human Cost Of War: Examining Taliban Casualties In Afghanistan Since 2001

The War in Afghanistan, which lasted from 2001 to 2021, was the longest war in US military history. It was launched by the US in response to the September 11 attacks, and saw the US-led coalition forces successfully topple the Taliban-ruled Islamic Emirate. However, despite the US remaining in Afghanistan to prevent the Taliban from returning to power, the Taliban reorganised and began a widespread insurgency against the new Afghan government and coalition forces.

The war resulted in an estimated 176,000-212,000+ deaths, including 46,319 civilians. While the exact number of Taliban killed is unknown, it is likely to be in the tens of thousands. The war also caused immense indirect damage, with the full cost impossible to calculate.

The US-led invasion of Afghanistan began on 7 October 2001

The invasion was led by the US and the UK, with logistical support from France, Germany, Australia, Canada, and other nations. The US-led coalition forces worked with the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, providing air and ground support as the Alliance provided most of the troops. The invasion made rapid progress, with the coalition capturing Kabul on November 13 and toppling the Taliban by December 17.

The Taliban regime unravelled rapidly after its loss at Mazar-e-Sharif on November 9, 2001, to forces loyal to Abdul Rashid Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek military leader. Over the next week, Taliban strongholds crumbled after coalition and Northern Alliance offensives. On November 14, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1378, calling for a "central role" for the UN in establishing a transitional administration and inviting member states to send peacekeeping forces to promote stability and aid delivery.

The fall of Kabul in November 2001 started a cascading collapse of Taliban positions. Within 24 hours, all Afghan provinces along the Iranian border had fallen, including Herat. Local Pashtun commanders and warlords had taken over throughout northeastern Afghanistan, including Jalalabad.

The Taliban's founding leader, Mullah Omar, reorganised the movement to wage asymmetric warfare against the coalition. By 2002, the Taliban had launched an insurgency against the US-led war effort. Protracted fighting continued for the next two decades, and by mid-2021, the international coalition and the US had begun to withdraw from the country amidst a nationwide Taliban offensive.

In August 2021, the Taliban captured Kabul and toppled the Afghan government, re-establishing their rule in the form of a second Islamic Emirate. The US-led military presence in the country ended on August 31, 2021, marking the close of America's longest war.

The Taliban was ousted from power in November 2001

The Taliban had ruled Afghanistan since 1996, imposing a strict interpretation of Islamic law, and committing massacres against civilians. The Taliban's harsh rule and the civil war that preceded it had devastated Afghanistan's infrastructure and economy.

The US-led invasion began with an air campaign, and the Taliban soon retreated from major cities. The Taliban leadership fled to Pakistan, and the Northern Alliance militia, which had seized parts of northeast Afghanistan, took control of Kabul.

The Taliban had been largely founded by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency, and received support from Pakistan throughout the war. The Pakistani government has repeatedly denied providing military assistance to the Taliban.

The Taliban regrouped and began an insurgency against the US-backed government and NATO-led forces. The Taliban insurgency was aided by the Pakistani military and intelligence services, and the group was able to take advantage of the rugged terrain and the Pashtun tribal code to hide and regroup.

The US-led war in Afghanistan lasted 20 years, becoming the longest war in US history. The war resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of civilians, and millions of Afghans were displaced.

The US-led coalition remained in Afghanistan after the Taliban's ousting, forming a security mission to prevent the Taliban's return to power

The US-led coalition remained in Afghanistan after the Taliban's ousting, forming a security mission (ISAF) to prevent the Taliban's return to power. The coalition aimed to create a new democratic authority in the country, and a new Afghan Interim Administration was established. International rebuilding efforts were launched, and the CIA armed Afghan militia groups to fight Islamist militants.

The Taliban regrouped and began a widespread insurgency against the new Afghan government and coalition forces. Insurgents from the Taliban and other Islamist groups waged asymmetric warfare, fighting with guerrilla warfare in the countryside, suicide attacks against urban targets, and reprisals against perceived Afghan collaborators. By 2007, large parts of Afghanistan had been retaken by the Taliban. In response, the coalition sent a major influx of troops for counter-insurgency operations, with a "clear and hold" strategy for villages and towns. This influx peaked in 2011, when roughly 140,000 foreign troops were operating under ISAF command across Afghanistan.

In 2014, NATO formally ended ISAF combat operations in Afghanistan and officially transferred full security responsibility to the Afghan government. However, the Taliban launched a broad offensive throughout the summer of 2021, successfully reestablishing their control over Afghanistan, including the capital city of Kabul. On the same day, the last president of the Islamic Republic, Ashraf Ghani, fled the country; the Taliban declared victory and the war was formally brought to a close. By 30 August, the last American military aircraft departed from Afghanistan, ending the protracted US-led military presence in the country.

The Taliban reorganised and began a widespread insurgency against the new Afghan government and coalition forces

Following the initial defeat of the Taliban and the establishment of a new Afghan government, the Taliban regrouped and began a widespread insurgency against the new Afghan government and coalition forces. By 2003, the Taliban had reorganised under their founder, Mullah Omar, and began a widespread insurgency against the new Afghan government and coalition forces. Insurgents from the Taliban and other Islamist groups waged asymmetric warfare, fighting with guerrilla warfare in the countryside, suicide attacks against urban targets, and reprisals against perceived Afghan collaborators. By 2007, large parts of Afghanistan had been retaken by the Taliban.

The Taliban insurgency was marked by the use of guerrilla tactics, including suicide, car and roadside bombs, and targeted assassinations. The Taliban also used insider attacks as the war drew on, planting personnel in the Afghan military and police forces.

The Taliban insurgency was also characterised by the targeting of civilians. In 2006, the Taliban were responsible for 669 civilian deaths, with Human Rights Watch reporting that the Taliban had killed at least 950 Afghan civilians in 2007. The Taliban also targeted schools, with the most shocking incident being the attack outside the Sayed ul-Shuhuda school in Kabul, which resulted in more than 300 civilian casualties, mostly schoolgirls.

The Taliban insurgency was also facilitated by support from Pakistan. Elements of the Pakistani government, including the military and intelligence services, maintained strong logistical and tactical ties with Taliban militants, and this support helped to sustain the insurgency in Afghanistan.

The US-Taliban deal was signed in February 2020, stipulating the withdrawal of all US troops from Afghanistan by 2021

The US-Taliban deal, also known as the Doha Accord, was signed on February 29, 2020, in Doha, Qatar, by the United States and the Taliban. The agreement was negotiated by Zalmay Khalilzad, the US diplomatic envoy, and set out the terms for a US withdrawal from Afghanistan by May 1, 2021.

The deal was a significant step towards ending the 18-year war in Afghanistan, which had begun in 2001 following the September 11 attacks. The conflict had resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and cost the US around \$2 trillion. The US-Taliban deal was not a final peace agreement, but it did lay out a timetable for the withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan. In return, the Taliban committed to counter-terrorism measures, including preventing al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups from operating in areas under Taliban control.

The agreement also included a temporary reduction in violence and stipulated that a lasting ceasefire would be negotiated between the US, Taliban, and Afghan forces. The US agreed to an initial reduction of its troops in Afghanistan from 13,000 to 8,600 within 135 days, with a full withdrawal to follow within 14 months if the Taliban upheld its commitments. The deal also required the Afghan government to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners by March 10, 2020, in exchange for 1,000 government soldiers held by the Taliban.

The US-Taliban deal was the first step towards a comprehensive settlement of the conflict. By agreeing to a conditional timeline for withdrawal, the US overcame the Taliban's resistance to direct negotiations with the Afghan government. However, there were concerns that the Afghan government was reluctant to engage in the peace process and that the Taliban was not genuinely committed to reducing violence.

The intra-Afghan negotiations were slow to get started and were hampered by disagreements over prisoner exchanges and the terms of the negotiations. The Taliban also continued to carry out attacks on Afghan security forces, despite the agreement.

Ultimately, the US-Taliban deal and the subsequent withdrawal of US and NATO forces triggered the collapse of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). The US dramatically reduced air support for the ANSF, which left them at a disadvantage in their fight against the Taliban. This ultimately led to the Taliban takeover of Kabul on August 15, 2021.

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