Belarus' Refugee Crisis: Counting The Displaced

The number of refugees in Belarus has been a contentious issue since 2021, when the country was accused of orchestrating a migrant crisis by flying in asylum seekers from the Middle East and North Africa and pushing them to cross into Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. While Belarus denied these accusations, the EU and independent observers viewed it as a form of hybrid warfare in response to deteriorating relations. This resulted in a humanitarian crisis, with thousands of refugees stranded in harsh winter conditions along the Belarus-Poland border, facing sub-zero temperatures, food scarcity and inadequate shelter. The situation has led to a diplomatic standoff, with the EU refusing to negotiate with Belarus and imposing sanctions, while Belarus has threatened to interrupt gas supplies to the bloc.

The number of refugees in Belarus

In June 2021, there were 294 people with refugee status living in Belarus, mostly from Afghanistan, Georgia and Syria. In addition, Belarus was hosting 2624 people with complementary protection and 6103 stateless persons. In the first half of 2020, 209 people applied for asylum in Belarus, mainly from Ukraine, Iraq, DR Congo and Turkey.

The crisis escalated in August 2021 when the Belarusian government began coordinating an influx of migrants, mostly from the Middle East and North Africa, to the borders of Lithuania, Poland and Latvia. Tens of thousands of unauthorized border crossing attempts were recorded between August and December 2021, with a peak in October. The majority of these migrants were Iraqi Kurds, but there were also Syrians, Yemenites, Afghans, Cameroonians, and Russians among them.

In November 2021, the total number of migrants and refugees in Belarus was estimated at around 7,000. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the Belarus Red Cross have been providing aid to those stuck in makeshift camps along the border. The worsening winter weather has led to rising deaths due to hypothermia among asylum seekers.

The EU has accused Belarus of orchestrating the migrant crisis in retaliation for sanctions imposed on the country following the 2020 presidential election and the forced landing of a commercial flight in May 2021. Belarus has denied these accusations but has proposed that EU countries take in thousands of refugees currently in its territory. However, this proposal was rejected by Germany and the European Commission.

The number of refugees entering the EU via Belarus

The majority of refugees entering the EU via Belarus originated from the Middle East and North Africa, particularly Iraq. Kurds from Iraq made up a significant portion of this group. Other countries of origin include Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, Yemen, Cameroon, and Russia. These refugees often travelled to Minsk, the capital of Belarus, by air and then travelled overland to the borders of EU states, including Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia.

In response to the influx of refugees, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia declared states of emergency and announced plans to build border walls. The EU also sent supporting officers, patrol cars, and helicopters to Lithuania. However, the number of refugees continued to rise, and in November 2021, Poland deployed thousands of troops to the border after migrants attempted to storm into the country.

The situation has resulted in a humanitarian crisis, with refugees stranded in harsh conditions and facing sub-zero temperatures. Aid organizations have reported deaths due to hypothermia and inadequate access to food, water, and shelter. While Belarus has denied the accusations of orchestrating the crisis, the EU has imposed sanctions and refused to negotiate, demanding that Belarus take responsibility and resolve the issue.

As of November 2021, the crisis appeared to ease slightly after Belarus cleared a camp near the border crossing and transferred people to another location. However, Poland continues to accuse Belarus of funneling refugees to the frontier, and a solution remains elusive without Minsk's demands being met. The future of the refugees remains uncertain, with many facing the prospect of prolonged limbo or detention.

The number of refugees at the Belarus-Poland border

In November 2021, it was estimated that there were up to 2,000 migrants and refugees at the border with Poland, with the total number in Belarus at around 7,000. The majority of these refugees and migrants were Kurds from Iraq, but there were also Syrians, Iranians, Afghans, Yemenis, Cameroonians, and others. The presence of large numbers of women and children among them raised concerns about their safety and well-being, especially as winter approached.

The situation has been ongoing since 2021, with several thousand migrants stranded along the border between Poland and Belarus. The EU has attempted to stop migrants from using Belarus as a route to its borders, and some migrants who ended up in Belarus have been flown back to their home countries. However, the number of migrants began rising again in the spring of 2024, and the crisis continues to escalate.

In August 2021, the Belarusian government began coordinating an influx of migrants to the borders of Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia. This was seen as a form of hybrid warfare in response to the deterioration of Belarus's relations with the EU following the disputed 2020 Belarusian presidential election. Between August and December 2021, tens of thousands of unauthorised border crossing attempts were recorded, with a peak in October. The number of attempted crossings fell in 2022 but never returned to pre-crisis levels, and by the spring of 2024, the numbers began to rise again.

The crisis has resulted in a humanitarian emergency, with aid organisations providing assistance to those stranded at the border. Asylum seekers have faced harsh conditions, including sub-zero temperatures, food scarcity, and a lack of adequate shelter. At least a dozen refugees have died along the Belarus-Poland border, with the real number believed to be higher.

The number of refugees being repatriated

In November 2021, the Iraqi government organised the repatriation of over 1,000 of its citizens from Belarus. A Baghdad-bound repatriation flight that same month was boarded by hundreds of Iraqis who had been camping at the border. However, only about 400 Iraqi refugees agreed to return home, with 374 passengers, mostly Iraqi citizens, on the first flight. The Kurdish Regional Government stated that it was working closely with Baghdad to repatriate more Kurdish refugees in Europe but would not force anyone to return.

In November 2021, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimated the total number of migrants and refugees in Belarus at around 7,000. The agency also stated that only a limited number had expressed a desire to return home voluntarily. IOM, in partnership with the Belarus Red Cross, has been providing aid to those stuck in makeshift camps along the border.

In August 2021, the Belarusian authorities moved migrants and refugees away from the main camps at the Polish border, which helped ease the crisis. A spokesperson for the Polish border guard confirmed that the camps on the frontier in western Belarus were completely empty. The migrants were moved to a heated warehouse not far from the border, with a Belarusian press officer confirming the relocation.

In June 2021, the Lithuanian authorities published a plan to build a container camp near Švenčionėliai for 40,000 migrants in the worst-case scenario. However, it is unclear how many migrants were ultimately housed in this camp or if it was ever fully completed.

According to a Polish lawyer, Tadeusz Kolodziej, those who manage to breach the border are immediately pushed back or handed over for deportation, which usually takes about 30 days. During this time, they have the opportunity to seek legal representation for asylum. He explained that the asylum-seeking process can be lengthy, taking months or even years, with refugees held in detention centres or "open camps" where they have some freedom of movement.

The number of refugees in detention centres

In 2021, Belarus faced accusations of "weaponizing" migration by facilitating the flow of migrants, primarily from the Middle East, to its borders with Poland and other EU countries. This sparked a humanitarian crisis, with thousands of migrants stranded in makeshift camps along the Belarus-EU border. There are concerns about the arbitrary detention of migrants and denial of access to asylum procedures, in violation of international norms. The EU and several countries have accused Belarus of using refugees as pawns to destabilise the European Union.

The conditions in these detention centres have been described as inhumane, with limited access to sanitary facilities, medical care, and legal assistance. For example, the Wędrzyn detention centre in Poland, which holds up to 600 people, has been criticised for its overcrowding, with up to 24 men detained in rooms as small as eight square metres. This is significantly below the Council of Europe's minimum standard of four square metres per person.

The treatment of refugees in these centres has also been called into question. Amnesty International reported that asylum seekers were subjected to abusive treatment, including strip searches, forcible sedation, and tasering. They were also denied contact with the outside world, exacerbating the trauma and psychological problems that many refugees already experience.

The number of refugees in Belarusian detention centres is hard to pinpoint, but the impact of their treatment is clear. The EU and other international actors have expressed concern and called for de-escalation at the border. The situation has resulted in a humanitarian crisis, with reports of deaths, illness, and injuries among those stranded.

It is important to note that the information available may not reflect the current situation, and the number of refugees in detention centres can fluctuate over time.

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