Drone Warfare: Azerbaijan's Large Arsenal Of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Azerbaijan's use of drones in the conflict with Armenia over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region has been widely recognised as a decisive factor in their victory. Azerbaijan's drone fleet, purchased from Israel and Turkey, included Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones and Israeli kamikaze drones (also known as loitering munitions). These drones were used to target and destroy Armenian weapons systems, including tanks, artillery and air defence systems, and played a crucial role in the outcome of the conflict. The use of drones provided Azerbaijan with a significant advantage in terms of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, as well as long-range strike capabilities. The ability to launch precise strikes from a distance not only caused physical damage to Armenian forces but also had a demoralising effect on their soldiers. The effectiveness of Azerbaijan's drone warfare has led to a growing interest in the use of drones by other countries, including the UK and the US, and has raised questions about the future of traditional warfare and the potential obsolescence of certain military equipment.

Azerbaijan's use of drones in Nagorno-Karabakh

Azerbaijan's use of drones in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict demonstrated the country's military prowess and the evolving nature of warfare. The drones played a pivotal role in Azerbaijan's offensive, offering a cost-effective way to gain an advantage over Armenia and transform the battlefield.

The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, a separatist region within Azerbaijan with a predominantly Armenian population, has a long history dating back to the late 1980s. In the early 1990s, Armenia gained control of the region and seven surrounding districts, resulting in a decades-long stalemate with Azerbaijan. However, in September 2020, tensions escalated once again, with Azerbaijan launching a drone-led assault on Armenian forces.

Azerbaijan's drone fleet, purchased from Israel and Turkey, included Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones and Israeli kamikaze drones, also known as loitering munitions. These drones were instrumental in Azerbaijan's success, as they could loiter over an area and precisely target Armenian weapons systems, fortifications, and troops. The drones struck Armenian tanks, artillery, and air defence systems, causing significant losses and exposing Armenian ground forces.

The use of drones provided Azerbaijan with a cost-effective way to gain air power and transform a long-standing conflict. Drones offered a cheaper alternative to traditional air forces, enabling smaller nations to access tactical aviation and precision-guided weapons. This shift in warfare was highlighted by Michael Kofman, a military analyst, who noted the impact of drones on the battlefield and their ability to shift the power dynamics in conflicts.

The effectiveness of Azerbaijan's drone strategy was evident in the heavy losses inflicted on Armenian forces. According to Stijn Mitzer, a military analyst, Armenian losses included 185 T-72 tanks, 90 armoured vehicles, 182 artillery pieces, 73 multiple rocket launchers, 26 surface-to-air missile systems, and more. In contrast, Azerbaijan's losses were significantly lower, with 22 tanks, 41 armoured vehicles, one helicopter, 25 drones, and 24 vehicles confirmed destroyed.

The success of Azerbaijan's drone strategy had far-reaching implications. It sparked debates about the future of traditional military equipment, such as tanks and armoured vehicles, and the growing importance of integrating armed drones with other weapons systems. Additionally, it raised concerns about the export of drones and the lack of legal restrictions on weapons sales based on human rights concerns.

Drone warfare's future implications

Azerbaijan's use of drones in the conflict with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region has raised questions about the future implications of drone warfare. While the use of drones in this conflict has been described as a "game-changer", it is important to consider the broader implications for the future of military power.

Drones have been credited with providing Azerbaijan with a decisive advantage in the conflict with Armenia. The ability of drones to provide real-time information, precision strikes, and target acquisition has transformed battlefields and reduced the cost of warfare. This has led to an increased interest in drones by militaries around the world, as they offer a cost-effective way to gain tactical advantages and improve military capabilities.

The future of drone warfare is expected to be dominated by mass and speed, with countries seeking to deploy large numbers of cheap, reusable drones. The development of autonomous capabilities and AI-enabled munitions further adds to the complexity and potential consequences of drone warfare. As AI continues to advance, there are growing concerns about the risk of violating international humanitarian law and human rights law. The increased automation and reduced human involvement in drone warfare may also lead to a lack of transparency and accountability, particularly in the event of mistakes or civilian casualties.

To address these challenges, policymakers are considering various regulations and guidelines for the use of AI in drone warfare. Proposals include developing government-wide policies, ensuring human oversight, reducing the timeframe for human approval of targets, and conducting routine AI health audits. However, as the capabilities and use of drones continue to evolve, the effectiveness of these regulations remains uncertain.

In conclusion, the use of drones in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has highlighted the potential advantages and implications of drone warfare. As drone technology advances and becomes more accessible, militaries worldwide will need to adapt and develop strategies to mitigate the risks associated with this evolving form of warfare.

Turkey's role in the conflict

Turkey's role in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan was significant and multifaceted. Here is a detailed breakdown of Turkey's involvement:

Military Support and Advising

Turkey provided crucial military support to Azerbaijan during the conflict. It supplied unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones, which played a pivotal role in Azerbaijan's victory. The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones, in particular, were highly effective in disabling Armenian air defences and inflicting heavy losses on their armoured formations. Turkey was the third-largest supplier of weapons to Azerbaijan, after Israel and Russia.

Additionally, Turkey's military advisors played an advisory role in Azerbaijan's operational plans and command. Turkish senior military personnel shared their expertise with the Azerbaijani forces, contributing to their successful tactics and strategies.

Joint Military Exercises and Training

Turkey and Azerbaijan conducted joint military exercises in July and August 2020, showcasing their military cooperation and coordination. These exercises allowed the two countries to enhance their interoperability and prepare for potential conflict.

Furthermore, Turkey has been instrumental in building and training Azerbaijan's armed forces over the past three decades. Since Azerbaijan's independence in 1992, Turkey has offered its support in establishing a modern military based on Western standards. This included providing education and training to Azerbaijani cadets, officers, and command staff in various Turkish military academies. The agreement on military training cooperation, signed in 1992 and ratified in the Turkish Parliament, laid the foundation for this long-standing collaboration.

Diplomatic and Political Support

Turkey offered unwavering diplomatic and political support to Azerbaijan throughout the conflict. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan praised Azerbaijan's operations and reaffirmed his country's unwavering support. He referred to the two nations as "one nation, two states," highlighting the close ties between them. Turkey's vocal backing sent a strong message of solidarity and bolstered Azerbaijan's position internationally.

Energy Security and Economic Ties

The relationship between Turkey and Azerbaijan extends beyond military cooperation. Azerbaijan is crucial for Turkey's energy security, providing a significant portion of its gas imports. Additionally, SOCAR, Azerbaijan's state oil company, has become the biggest foreign investor in Turkey, strengthening the economic bond between the two countries.

In conclusion, Turkey's role in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War was significant and multi-faceted. Its military support, including drone technology and advisory roles, joint military exercises, diplomatic backing, and economic ties, all contributed to Azerbaijan's victory and the outcome of the conflict. Turkey's involvement also revealed insights into its wider ambitions in the region, particularly regarding energy security and geopolitical influence.

Drone technology's cost-effectiveness

Azerbaijan's drones played a crucial role in the country's victory over Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The drones, purchased from Israel and Turkey, were instrumental in destroying Armenian weapons systems, enabling swift advances, and shifting the long-standing conflict in Azerbaijan's favour. This application of drone technology highlights its cost-effectiveness in modern warfare.

Drones offer a relatively low-cost option for air power, providing small countries with access to tactical aviation and precision-guided weapons at a fraction of the cost of a traditional air force. This was evident in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, where Azerbaijan's drones targeted and destroyed Armenian armoured vehicles, air defence systems, and artillery. The ability to destroy costly equipment, such as tanks and missile systems, at a lower cost gives drones a significant advantage in military engagements.

The use of drones can also reduce casualties among front-line troops, as noted by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who credited Turkish drones for reducing Azerbaijani casualties during the conflict. Drones can conduct precision strikes on enemy targets while minimising risk to military personnel, making them a valuable asset in combat situations.

In addition to their military applications, drones have proven to be cost-effective in various civilian sectors, including medical supply delivery, emergency response, and parcel delivery. In the healthcare sector, drones can provide faster and more reliable delivery of biomedical samples and vaccines, especially in areas with limited road infrastructure or challenging terrain. They can also assist in emergency situations by delivering blood, medications, and small medical equipment quickly and efficiently.

In the context of parcel delivery, drones may not replace traditional methods entirely but can complement them by providing express delivery services, especially in suburban and remote areas. Drones can reduce delivery times and costs, making them a cost-effective option for businesses and customers.

Overall, drone technology offers significant cost-effectiveness in both military and civilian applications. Their ability to provide tactical advantages, reduce casualties, and improve efficiency in various sectors makes them a valuable tool with a wide range of applications.

The UK's response to Azerbaijan's drone programme

The UK's military is expected to embark on a new armed drone programme in response to Azerbaijan's use of drones in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Defence officials believe that Azerbaijan's deployment of cheaper Turkish drones was crucial in their victory over Armenia, and this has prompted the UK to consider cheaper alternatives to their current fleet.

The UK defence secretary, Ben Wallace, has stated that Turkish TB2 drones are an example of how other countries are "leading the way" in drone technology. These drones are a much cheaper alternative to the high-end, next-generation Protector drones currently used by the British military, which cost almost $20 million per drone. In comparison, the TB2 drones cost between $1 million and $2 million each and can loiter in the air for up to 24 hours. This affordability means that military forces can afford to lose some in action.

The UK's new drone programme will be part of the five-year defence review due to be unveiled in 2021. However, there are warnings about the risks of the proliferation of deadly unmanned aircraft. Critics argue that drones lower the cost of warfare and could fuel bitter, lethal conflicts between neighbouring states.

The UK already complies with a 1992 arms embargo relating to weapons that could be used in Nagorno-Karabakh and has stated that they have not issued licences contrary to the embargo. However, there have been reports of UK components found in downed Azerbaijani drones, including a fuel pump made by Hampshire firm Andair and a bomb rack missile release system first developed in the UK by Brighton-based EDO MBM Technology.

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