The Swift Surge: Taliban's Lightning Takeover Of Afghanistan

The Taliban took over Afghanistan in a matter of days, far quicker than the US anticipated. The insurgents swept across the country, capturing all major cities and the capital, Kabul, in under 10 days.

The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan was two decades in the making. The group had been waging an insurgency against US-led forces since they were ousted from power in 2001.

In May 2021, the Taliban began a lightning offensive, taking advantage of the withdrawal of US troops. City after city fell with little resistance as Afghan security forces, trained and equipped by the US, collapsed.

By August, the Taliban had reached Kabul, and the Western-backed government had fallen. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country as Taliban fighters took control of the presidential palace.

The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in 2021

The speed of the Taliban's takeover can be attributed to several factors, including intelligence failures, a stronger Taliban, corruption within the Afghan government and security forces, cultural differences, and a lack of willpower among Afghan forces. Despite being vastly outnumbered by the Afghan military, the Taliban's strategic planning, organisation, and determination proved decisive.

The Taliban's return to power has had severe consequences for Afghanistan. The country's economy has imploded, with hundreds of thousands of jobs lost and malnutrition soaring. The Taliban have also imposed strict restrictions on women's rights, banning most girls from attending school and prohibiting women from working, travelling without a male chaperone, or appearing in public without covering their faces.

The future for Afghans under Taliban rule remains uncertain. The international community has not recognised the Taliban government and has frozen billions of dollars in Afghan assets. While the Taliban have pledged to respect rights and create an inclusive government, their actions have raised doubts about their commitment to moderation and reform.

The US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001

The US military, with British support, began a bombing campaign against Taliban forces on October 7, 2001, marking the public start of Operation Enduring Freedom. The war's early phase mainly involved US airstrikes on al-Qaeda and Taliban forces, assisted by about 1,000 US special forces, the Northern Alliance, and ethnic Pashtun anti-Taliban forces.

The first wave of conventional ground forces arrived 12 days later. The Taliban regime unravelled rapidly after its loss at Mazar-e-Sharif on November 9, 2001, to forces loyal to Abdul Rashid Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek military leader. Over the next week, Taliban strongholds crumbled after coalition and Northern Alliance offensives.

On November 13, the Taliban abandoned Kabul without a fight, and by November 16, Osama bin Laden was thought to have fled to Pakistan. Despite the official fall of the Taliban, al-Qaeda leaders continued to hide in the mountains.

The end of 2001 saw the formation of an interim government led by Hamid Karzai, and the United Nations established the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to oversee military operations in Afghanistan and train the new Afghan National Security Forces.

The Taliban's blitz across Afghanistan in 2021

The Taliban blitz across Afghanistan in 2021 was swift and shocking to the world. Within a matter of days, the Taliban seized control of the country, capturing all major cities as Afghan security forces trained and equipped by the US and its allies collapsed. Here is a detailed account of the Taliban's blitz across Afghanistan:

The Taliban's Advance

The Taliban, a militant group that previously ruled Afghanistan in the late 1990s, began their offensive in May 2021 as the US and NATO forces started their withdrawal. The Taliban took advantage of the security vacuum and quickly gained territory. By early August, they had captured several border crossings and began direct assaults on urban areas, including Kandahar and Herat.

Fall of Provincial Capitals

On August 6, 2021, the Taliban captured the capital of southern Nimruz Province, marking the first fall of a provincial capital. This was followed by a rapid succession of provincial capitals falling into Taliban hands within days. Major cities such as Mazar-i-Sharif in the north and Jalalabad in the east fell with little resistance, leaving Kabul as the only major urban area under government control.

Fall of Kabul

On August 15, 2021, just over two weeks before the official US withdrawal deadline, Taliban fighters entered Kabul, the Afghan capital. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, and the Afghan government collapsed. The Taliban took control of the presidential palace and began establishing checkpoints to secure the city. The speed of the Taliban's advance and the collapse of the Afghan security forces and government surprised US officials and allies, who had expected Kabul to hold out for several weeks or months.

Evacuation Efforts

With the Taliban in control of Afghanistan, evacuation efforts began for US and allied personnel, as well as Afghans who worked with the US and sought to flee the country. The Kabul airport became the focal point of these evacuation efforts, with thousands of desperate Afghans rushing to the airport in hopes of escaping. The US deployed additional troops to assist with the evacuations, but the situation remained chaotic, with reports of gunfire and stampedes.

Taliban Rule Begins

With the evacuation of US and allied forces complete by August 31, 2021, the Taliban solidified their rule over Afghanistan. They imposed strict interpretations of Islamic law, restricting the rights of women and girls and cracking down on dissent. The Taliban banned girls from secondary education, prohibited women from working in most sectors, and introduced rules requiring women to have a male chaperone when travelling and to cover their faces in public.

The Taliban also worked to improve domestic security by cracking down on rival armed groups such as the Islamic State. They held investment talks with regional countries and sought the removal of sanctions and access to frozen funds. However, the international community withheld formal recognition and aid due to concerns over the Taliban's human rights record, particularly regarding women's rights.

The collapse of the Afghan government in 2021

The collapse of the Afghan government was the result of several factors, including intelligence failures, corruption, a more powerful Taliban, and a lack of will to fight. The US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 had ousted the Taliban, but they regrouped and waged an insurgency against the US-backed government. Despite billions of dollars spent by the US and its allies to train and equip Afghan security forces, the government was rife with corruption, and soldiers often lacked supplies, ammunition, and food.

The Taliban's success can be attributed to several factors, including strong grassroots support, effective propaganda, and the use of coercion and threats against those who opposed them. They also took advantage of the US withdrawal, which signalled to Afghan soldiers that the end was near and further eroded morale.

The collapse of the Afghan government had far-reaching consequences, including a humanitarian crisis, a rollback of women's rights, and a resurgence of terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS-K. The Taliban's takeover also led to international isolation and economic collapse, with the country facing food shortages, soaring inflation, and a lack of access to basic services.

The Taliban's impact on Afghanistan's economy

The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan has had a devastating impact on the country's economy. The country has been plunged into economic stagnation, with a sharp contraction in GDP, widespread disruptions to public services, and a loss of access to the international banking system. The Taliban's harsh rule, including the restriction of women's rights and a neglect of basic services, has resulted in soaring malnutrition, job losses, and a brain drain.

The Taliban's return to power in 2021 led to a sharp decline in Afghanistan's economic output. The country's GDP contracted by 20.7% in 2021 and a further 6.2% in 2022. This economic downturn was driven by reduced aid, which caused a steep decline in aggregate demand, and disruptions to public services. The loss of access to the international banking system and offshore foreign exchange reserves further exacerbated the situation. As a result, investment confidence plummeted, and tens of thousands of skilled Afghans fled the country.

The Taliban's policies have had a detrimental effect on the livelihoods of Afghans. Malnutrition has soared, with the proportion of households unable to meet basic food needs more than doubling between 2021 and 2022. Hundreds of thousands of jobs have been lost, and the banking sector has become dysfunctional due to constraints on international transfers and concerns about liquidity and solvency. The Taliban's ban on women working in various sectors has also contributed to the economic downturn.

The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan has been further exacerbated by the country's isolation from the international community. Sanctions and the termination of significant development aid have crippled the economy. The revocation of the central bank's credentials has halted basic banking transactions and restricted critical cash flow relied on by Afghan families. Additionally, skyrocketing inflation has led to a significant increase in the price of goods.

The economic stagnation and declining external financing avenues paint a bleak picture for Afghanistan's future economic prospects. Structural deficiencies in the private sector, coupled with waning international support for essential services, are expected to impede any meaningful economic progress. This stagnation will likely lead to deepening poverty and unemployment, with a decrease in job opportunities and an increase in food insecurity.

To improve its economic outlook, Afghanistan needs to shift from reliance on international aid and consumption-driven growth to a more resilient, private sector-led economy. Capitalizing on its inherent strengths, such as agriculture and the extractive sectors, could be a key driver of growth and poverty reduction. However, this will require strategic investments in infrastructure, land tenure security, research, and market access to enhance productivity and resilience.

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