The Long Reign Of Belarus' President

Alexander Lukashenko has been the President of Belarus since 1994, making him one of the world's longest-serving leaders. Lukashenko has been described as Europe's last dictator, ruling with a mix of guile, brutality, and staunch support from his main ally, Russia. He has held on to power by harshly silencing dissent, reverting to Soviet-style economic controls, and manipulating elections. Lukashenko has won every presidential election since 1994, with all but the first being labelled by international monitors as neither free nor fair.

Alexander Lukashenko's rise to power

Alexander Lukashenko has been the President of Belarus since 1994, making him the longest-serving head of state in Europe. Lukashenko was born on 30 August 1954 in the settlement of Kopys in the Vitebsk Region of the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. He attended the Alexandria secondary school in Shklov District and later graduated from the Mogilev Pedagogical Institute in 1975. From 1975 to 1977, he served in the Soviet Border Troops and then joined the Soviet Army from 1980 to 1982, where he was a deputy political officer of the 120th Guards Motor Rifle Division.

Lukashenko began his political career in 1990 when he was elected to the Supreme Soviet of the Byelorussian SSR. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, he assumed the position of head of the interim anti-corruption committee of the Supreme Council of Belarus. In 1994, he won the country's inaugural presidential election after the adoption of a new constitution, earning 80% of the votes cast in a runoff against the communist leader Vyacheslav Kebic. Lukashenko's initial political agenda focused on restoring the old Soviet economic system, increasing political repression, and fostering close political relations with Russia.

To maintain his grip on power, Lukashenko has relied on the country's secret service, the KGB, and utilised referendums to amend laws and expand his authority. He has been accused of at least four political murders and has imprisoned dozens of political opponents. Lukashenko's rule has been characterised by strong state control of the economy, tight control over the media, and suppression of dissent. His leadership style has been described as authoritarian, with international monitors deeming Belarusian elections as neither free nor fair, except for his initial win.

Despite facing unified opposition and widespread protests in recent years, Lukashenko has managed to retain power through his consolidation of control over various aspects of Belarusian society and governance.

His policies and actions

Alexander Lukashenko has been the President of Belarus since 1994, making him one of the world's longest-serving leaders. He has been referred to as "Europe's last dictator" due to his authoritarian style of governance. Lukashenko has been criticised for suppressing dissent, controlling the media, and conducting elections that are neither free nor fair.

Alexander Lukashenko's policies and actions have been characterised by a consolidation of power, a suppression of dissent, and a pivot towards Russia.

Consolidation of Power:

Lukashenko has worked to consolidate power by removing term limits, extending his original five-year term, ruling by decree, and appointing a third of the upper house of parliament. He has also brought the parliament under his control and retained close ties with the security agencies, notably keeping the KGB as the country's top security agency.

Suppression of Dissent:

One of Lukashenko's most notable actions was the suppression of dissent, which included the disappearance of several of his political opponents in the late 1990s. Former Interior Minister Yuri Zakharenka, Viktar Hanchar, the head of the Central Election Commission, and his advisor Anatoly Krasovsky, disappeared under suspicious circumstances. Lukashenko has also cracked down on peaceful protests, with the largest protests in Belarus' history taking place in 2020, leading to the arrest of thousands of people.

Economic Policies:

Lukashenko has favoured a Soviet-style centralised economy, relying heavily on Russian subsidies and control over key industries. He has resisted economic reforms and maintained state control over the economy, which has led to international isolation.

Foreign Policy:

In foreign policy, Lukashenko has pivoted towards Russia, seeking closer ties and even a potential union with the country. This has included signing agreements with Russian President Boris Yeltsin and allowing Moscow to use Belarusian territory during its invasion of Ukraine. Lukashenko has also hosted Russian troops for joint military exercises and agreed to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

COVID-19 Response:

Lukashenko's response to the COVID-19 pandemic was unconventional, as he downplayed the severity of the virus, suggesting people could kill the virus with vodka and recommending working in the fields as a cure.

Social Issues:

Lukashenko has been criticised for his social policies, particularly regarding gender. Before the 2020 election, he stated that Belarus was not ready for a female president. He has also been accused of forcing opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya into exile after she challenged him in the 2020 election.

In summary, Alexander Lukashenko's policies and actions as President of Belarus have been marked by a consolidation of power, suppression of dissent, economic centralisation, and a pivot towards Russia. His style of governance has been widely criticised by Western nations and human rights organisations.

The 2020 election controversy

On 9 August 2020, Alexander Lukashenko was re-elected for a sixth term as President of Belarus, with 80.1% of the vote. This election sparked the largest protests in the country's history, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets to demonstrate against what they believed to be a rigged election. The opposition candidate, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, claimed to have won with at least 60% of the vote and called on Lukashenko to begin negotiations for a transfer of power.

The 2020 election was marred by allegations of widespread fraud and human rights abuses. Lukashenko's regime has been described as an "authoritarian dictatorship" by Western observers, with opposition activists often being pressured or detained by the government. In the lead-up to the election, several opposition candidates were arrested, including Viktar Babaryka, Valery Tsepkalo, and Sergei Tikhanovsky.

The election was also criticised for a lack of transparency. Numerous countries, including the European Union, refused to accept the results and imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) did not monitor the election as they had not received a timely invitation from the Belarusian government.

The protests that followed the election were met with a violent crackdown by the authorities, with tens of thousands of people arrested and allegations of beatings and torture. Many political opponents were forced into exile, including Tsikhanouskaya, who now leads the opposition from Lithuania.

The controversy surrounding the 2020 election has led to increased international scrutiny and sanctions against Lukashenko's regime. Lukashenko, however, has denied any wrongdoing and has maintained his strongman image, shrugging off Western sanctions and isolation.

A Long History of Controversy

The controversy surrounding the 2020 election is not an isolated incident but rather a continuation of a pattern that has persisted throughout Lukashenko's three decades in power. Since his first election in 1994, which was deemed "free and fair", subsequent elections have been criticised by international observers for failing to meet democratic standards.

Lukashenko has consolidated power through constitutional changes, removing term limits and extending his original five-year term. He has also been accused of suppressing dissent, controlling the media, and engaging in human rights abuses, including the abduction and murder of political opponents.

The path towards totalitarianism has been a concern for experts and political observers, who believe that Lukashenko's rule is characterised by "bayonets" and a reliance on support from Russia. The economic situation in Belarus is heavily dependent on Russian subsidies, and Lukashenko has repeatedly clashed with the Kremlin over control of economic assets.

Despite the controversy and international sanctions, Lukashenko has maintained his grip on power, showcasing his political longevity and resilience in the face of opposition. However, the 2020 election and its aftermath have undoubtedly been a significant challenge to his rule, with widespread protests and international condemnation.

International sanctions and condemnation

Since the 1990s, Belarus has been heavily criticised by the United States, the European Union, the OSCE, and the United Nations for human rights violations and electoral fraud.

Alexander Lukashenko, the first and current President of Belarus, has been in power for over 30 years. He was elected in the first and last "free and fair" elections in Belarus in 1994. Since then, state repression against the political opposition has become increasingly harsh. Lukashenko has been referred to as "Europe's last dictator".

The 2020 presidential election in Belarus, in which Lukashenko secured 80.1% of the vote, was widely disputed. The election-monitoring organisation, OSCE, called for the official result to be annulled, stating that human rights abuses since the vote were "massive and systematic and proven beyond doubt". The UK, EU, and US governments agreed with the opposition that the election was rigged, and brutality was meted out to Lukashenko's opponents.

In response to the 2020 election, several western countries, including the Baltic states, Canada, the UK, the US, the EU, Switzerland, and New Zealand, imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials, including Lukashenko and his son, Viktor. These sanctions involved asset freezes and travel bans. The EU's sanctions also blocked travel visas for the named officials and forbade EU citizens and companies from lending to them.

In June 2021, following the forced diversion of Ryanair Flight 4978, several countries added Belarusian individuals and entities to their sanctions lists. Notably, the EU imposed a fourth round of restrictive measures against 78 individuals and seven entities, the UK sanctioned 11 individuals and two entities, the US imposed sanctions on 16 individuals and five entities, and Canada imposed sanctions on 17 individuals and five entities.

In December 2022, after the start of the border crisis, several countries expanded their Belarus-related sanctions lists. The EU imposed a fifth round of restrictive measures against 17 individuals and 11 companies, the UK imposed sanctions against eight individuals and one company, the US designated 20 individuals and 12 entities, and Canada blacklisted 24 individuals and six entities.

The future of Belarus' presidency

The future of the Belarus presidency is uncertain, with the country's first and only president, Alexander Lukashenko, marking 30 years in power in 2024. Dubbed "Europe's last dictator", Lukashenko has been criticised for his authoritarian rule, suppression of dissent, and close ties with Russia.

Lukashenko has been in office since 1994, when he was elected in the first and only "free and fair" elections in Belarus to date. Since then, he has made constitutional changes to remove term limits and increase his power, with subsequent elections labelled as neither free nor fair by international monitors.

In 2020, Lukashenko was elected to his sixth term in office, with the election widely seen as rigged, sparking the largest protests in Belarus' history. Lukashenko responded with a violent crackdown, sending tens of thousands of people to jail and forcing opposition leaders into exile.

Despite facing Western sanctions and isolation, Lukashenko has maintained his grip on power with the support of his main ally, Russia. He has also benefited from divisions among the opposition, which has struggled to unite against him.

Looking ahead, Lukashenko has indicated he will run for a seventh five-year term in 2025, despite rumours of health issues. However, his potential successor remains unclear, with some speculation that he may be grooming his youngest son, Nikolai, for the role.

The path to a more democratic Belarus will likely be challenging and dependent on several factors, including the support of the Russian government and the ability of the opposition to unite and gain the support of the Belarusian people. Any transition away from Lukashenko's authoritarian rule will require reversing his policies, improving relations with Western countries, and addressing the country's economic situation.

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