The Current State Of Belarus: An In-Depth Analysis

Belarus, officially the Republic of Belarus, is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe. It is bordered by Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. Belarus has a population of 9.1 million and is administratively divided into six regions. Minsk is the capital and largest city. The country has been led by a highly centralized and authoritarian government, with President Alexander Lukashenko serving since 1994. Belarus has close ties with Russia and is dependent on it for imports and exports. The country has faced economic challenges, international sanctions, and allegations of human rights violations. Belarus has also been implicated in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, with its territory being used as a staging ground for Russian troops.

Politics and government

Belarus is a semi-presidential republic with a bicameral parliament, the National Assembly, which comprises the House of Representatives and the Council of the Republic. However, in practice, it is led by a highly centralized and authoritarian government, with power concentrated in the hands of the president, Alexander Lukashenko.

Lukashenko was elected in 1994 in the country's first and only free election after independence. Under the 1994 constitution, the president could serve a maximum of two terms, but a change to the constitution in 2004 removed term limits. Lukashenko has since been re-elected five times, although none of these elections have been considered free or fair.

Lukashenko heads an authoritarian government that has been criticized by organizations such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch for human rights violations, including the persecution of non-governmental organizations, independent journalists, national minorities, and opposition politicians. Belarus is the only European country that continues to use capital punishment. The country ranks low in international measurements of freedom of the press and civil liberties.

The government includes a Council of Ministers, headed by the prime minister and five deputy prime ministers, who are appointed by the president. The judiciary comprises the Supreme Court and specialized courts, such as the Constitutional Court. The judges of national courts are appointed by the president and confirmed by the Council of the Republic.

Belarus has been a member of the United Nations since its founding and is also part of organizations such as the CIS, CSTO, EAEU, OSCE, and the Non-Aligned Movement. It has close ties with Russia and is dependent on it for imports of raw materials and its export market. The two countries formed the Union State in 2000, a supranational confederation with plans for monetary union, equal rights, single citizenship, and a common foreign and defense policy. However, the future of this union has been placed in doubt due to Belarus's delays in monetary union and other disputes.

Since 2020, mass protests have erupted in Belarus following a disputed presidential election in which Lukashenko sought a sixth term in office. The European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Norway, and Japan have all imposed sanctions on Belarus due to the rigged election, political oppression, and the country's role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Economy and trade

Belarus has a mixed economy, with the state retaining control of key industries and eschewing the large-scale privatizations seen in other former Soviet republics. The country has trade relations with over 180 countries, with Russia being its primary economic partner and accounting for about 45% of Belarusian exports and 55% of imports. Other major trading partners include the EU countries, with 25% of exports and 20% of imports.

The country has a highly centralized and controlled economy, with the government owning large sections of it. In 2015, 39.3% of Belarusians were employed by state-controlled companies, 57.2% by private companies (in which the government has a 21.1% stake), and 3.5% by foreign companies. The country has a negative natural growth rate, and in 2007, its population declined by 0.41%. It has a relatively high unemployment rate, with 679,000 unemployed people as of 2005, two-thirds of whom were women.

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The Belarusian economy has been affected by sanctions imposed by the international community in response to its role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The UK, US, EU, and many other countries have imposed economic sanctions targeting specific sectors of the Belarusian economy and individuals. These sanctions have impacted trade, investment, and business operations in the country.

In addition to sanctions, Belarus has also faced economic challenges due to its close ties with Russia. For example, the country was impacted by the 2004 Russia-Belarus energy dispute, when Russian energy giant Gazprom ceased gas imports over price disagreements. There was also the 2007 Russia-Belarus energy dispute, which centred on accusations of oil siphoning from the Druzhba pipeline that runs through Belarus. More recently, the so-called "Milk War" with Russia in 2009 resulted in a trade ban on dairy imports from Belarus.

Despite these challenges, Belarus has maintained its economic relationship with Russia and continues to be a close trading partner and diplomatic ally. The two countries have formed a supranational confederation called the Union State, which aims for monetary union, equal rights, single citizenship, and a common foreign and defence policy. However, the future of this union is uncertain due to Belarus's repeated delays in monetary union and other disputes.

Military and security

Belarus is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe with a population of 9.1 million. The country has a hemiboreal climate and is bordered by Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. Belarus has a long history of foreign control and influence, having been part of various states and empires throughout the centuries. Since gaining independence in 1991, Belarus has been led by a highly centralized and authoritarian government under President Alexander Lukashenko.

The armed forces of Belarus were established in 1992 using parts of the former Soviet Armed Forces present in the new republic. The transformation of the ex-Soviet forces into the Armed Forces of Belarus was completed in 1997, resulting in a reduction of personnel and a restructuring of its leadership and military formations. Most of Belarus's service members are conscripts, serving for 12 months if they have higher education or 18 months if they do not. The country's military expenditures and personnel strengths are relatively low compared to other countries. Belarus has not expressed a desire to join NATO but has participated in the Individual Partnership Program since 1997. However, tensions between NATO and Belarus peaked after the 2006 presidential election.

Belarus has experienced multiple security incidents in recent years. In 2024, a significant number of drones entered Belarus, prompting the country's air force to scramble aircraft four times in a 24-hour period. These drones were identified as Shahed "kamikaze" drones, commonly used in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, Belarusian media reported the arrest of a Japanese spy who had allegedly entered into a fictitious marriage to legalize his stay in the country. The spy was found to have over 9,000 photos of roads, bridges, and military facilities, and was actively in contact with the Japanese embassy.

Belarus has also been implicated in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Russian troops staging part of their invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory. As a result, Belarus has faced sanctions from the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Norway, and Japan. These sanctions target individuals and specific sectors of the Belarusian economy, including trade restrictions and asset freezes.

Human rights

Belarus has a poor human rights record and has been described as "Europe's last dictatorship". The country has been criticised by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch for its human rights violations, and its persecution of non-governmental organisations, independent journalists, national minorities, and opposition politicians.

The country has a low Democracy Index rating, is labelled as "not free" by Freedom House, "repressed" in the Index of Economic Freedom, and ranks 153rd out of 180 countries in the Press Freedom Index published by Reporters Without Borders for 2022.

The Belarusian government, led by Alexander Lukashenko, has been described as highly centralised and authoritarian. Lukashenko has been in power since 1994, and the country has only seen one free election since its independence. Lukashenko has been re-elected multiple times, but these elections have not been considered free or fair.

Belarus is the only European country that continues to use capital punishment, and it also has poor LGBT rights. The country's judicial system lacks independence and is subject to political interference. Additionally, there are issues with corruption, such as bribery during tender processes.

The country's human rights issues have led to sanctions being imposed by the European Union, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Sport

Belarus has hosted an increasing number of international tournaments in recent years, including the 2014 IIHF World Championship, the 2015 IBU Youth/Junior World Championships, the 2018 UCI Track Cycling World Cup, and the 2019 European Games in Minsk. The country has a large number of sports facilities, with over 23,000 as of 2023, including 366 swimming pools, 56 indoor sports centres, and multiple large stadiums.

The most popular sports in Belarus include football, athletics, gymnastics, hockey, biathlon, and tennis. The country has a strong national ice hockey team, which placed 6th at the 2006 World Championship in Riga. Belarus has also produced several notable athletes, including Victoria Azarenka (tennis), Yulia Nestsiarenka (track and field), Olga Korbut (gymnastics), and Darya Domracheva (biathlon).

Belarus has a comprehensive sports development infrastructure, with specialised universities and sports schools for children and youth. The country's sports policy aims to make sports accessible to all, supporting mass participation and the development of elite athletes.

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