Exploring Democracy: Ukraine Vs Belarus

Ukraine and Belarus are two Eastern European countries that were once part of the Soviet Union. They gained independence in 1991, and since then, their political trajectories have diverged.

Ukraine has been characterised as a democracy with a semi-presidential system of government, while Belarus has been described as an authoritarian state with a presidential republic in name but a dictatorship in practice.

Ukraine has a history of mass protests and democratic revolutions, such as the Orange Revolution in 2004 and the Revolution of Dignity in 2014, which reflect the Ukrainian people's desire for a well-functioning democracy. However, Ukraine has also faced challenges such as corruption, state capture, and weak democratic institutions.

On the other hand, Belarus has retained closer political and economic ties to Russia than any other former Soviet republic. Its first and only directly elected president, Aleksandr Lukashenko, has consolidated power through authoritarian means, and restrictions on political and civil freedoms remain in place.

While both countries have experienced democratic challenges, Ukraine has made notable progress in recent years, especially at the local level, and is currently fighting to defend its territory and people against Russian aggression. Belarus, on the other hand, is ruled by a closed and repressive autocracy aligned with Russia.

In summary, Ukraine appears to be more democratic than Belarus, but it is important to note that the ongoing war with Russia has hindered Ukraine's ability to meet the minimal criteria of a democracy, such as holding free and fair elections.

Ukraine's democratic institutions

Ukraine's democratic trajectory has been influenced by two pivotal moments in its history: the Orange Revolution in 2004 and the Revolution of Dignity in 2014. The former saw mass protests in response to a rigged presidential election, while the latter saw the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych after he abandoned plans to strengthen ties with the EU in favour of Russia. These events reflect Ukrainians' desire for a well-functioning democracy, but also the weaknesses in the country's democratic institutions.

Ukraine has made notable progress in strengthening democracy at the local level through decentralization reform, which has led to the creation of 'hromadas', local-level administrative units that help ensure increased resources and decision-making powers for local communities. This has been one of the most successful reforms in recent years and has enabled local resilience following Russia's full-scale invasion.

However, Ukraine continues to struggle with corruption in the government, judiciary, and other sectors. There are also longstanding problems with the judicial system and the party system, and informal political networks have traditionally been very influential in the country. The war has also led to a deterioration in political rights and civil liberties, with bans on pro-Russian political parties and restrictions on movement as part of the government's defence efforts.

Despite these challenges, Ukraine remains committed to democratic reform. The 2014 and 2019 elections saw significant numbers of reform-oriented politicians elected to parliament, and new institutions such as the High Anti-Corruption Court and National Anti-Corruption Bureau have been created to improve the judicial system. Additionally, Ukraine has a lively civil society that plays an active role in holding political power to account.

Belarus's democratic institutions

Belarus has been described as an authoritarian state with a style of government that mirrors its Soviet past. The country has close ties with Russia and has been criticised for its lack of democratic institutions. However, Belarus did have a brief period of democracy in its history, and there are some organisations working to promote democratic reform in the country.

The Belarusian Democratic Republic

In 1918, during World War I, the Belarusian Democratic Republic (also known as the Belarusian People's Republic) was proclaimed by the Council of the Belarusian Democratic Republic. The Council proclaimed the Belarusian Democratic Republic independent in its Third Constituent Charter on 25 March 1918, during the occupation of contemporary Belarus by the Imperial German Army. The All-Belarusian Congress proclaimed the independence of the Belarusian People's Republic, and the government established close ties with the Ukrainian People's Republic. The government also created between 150 and 350 schools and initiated preparations for the creation of a university in Minsk.

However, the government of the Belarusian Democratic Republic never had power over the whole territory of Belarus. In 1919, it coexisted with an alternative Soviet Russia-controlled government, the Socialist Soviet Republic of Byelorussia. The Belarusian Democratic Republic ceased to exist due to the partition of Belarusian territory between the Bolshevik Red Army and the Polish Armed Forces as a result of the Polish-Soviet War of 1919-1921.

Current Democratic Institutions

The National Democratic Institute (NDI) has conducted democracy assistance programs in Belarus since 2000, partnering with citizens who want to build more democratic political institutions. NDI has helped civil society organisations improve their advocacy efforts and has helped political leaders and activists better represent citizens' interests and improve multi-party cooperation. They have also sponsored independent public opinion research and party assessments to equip democratic actors with the information they need to address citizen concerns more effectively.

Ukraine's elections

Ukraine's constitution, specifically Article 108, allows Zelensky to remain in office until the next president is sworn in, despite his term ending. Article 19 of Ukraine's "On the Legal Regime of Martial Law" prohibits presidential, parliamentary, and local elections during martial law, while Article 10 ensures the continuity of the president, parliament, and cabinet's powers.

The postponement of elections is further supported by security concerns, the displacement of voters, and the inability of citizens in Russian-occupied areas to participate in the electoral process. There are also practical challenges, such as damaged polling infrastructure and an outdated voter registry that does not account for millions of displaced voters.

Ukraine's democratic trajectory is heavily influenced by the ongoing war. Despite the challenges, the country has made notable advances in gender equality and the reduction of corruption. However, there have been declines in civil liberties and freedom of movement, with restrictions on movement and bans on pro-Russian political parties implemented as part of the government's wartime defence efforts.

The future of Ukraine's elections remains uncertain, with the short- and long-term democratic path dependent on the outcome of the conflict and the nature of its final settlement.

Belarus's elections

Belarus held its most recent parliamentary elections on 25 February 2024. The country elected 110 deputies to the lower house of parliament (the House of Representatives) and about 12,000 representatives of local councils.

These elections were the first since the 2020–2021 Belarusian protests against the authoritarian regime of President Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in office since 1994. There were no opposition candidates in these parliamentary campaigns. All contenders came from four registered political parties, each of which is pro-government, or pro-government independents. The Belarusian opposition called for a boycott of the elections.

In the lead-up to the election, the Belarusian KGB launched a series of raids targeting the families of political prisoners. Observers and human rights organizations noted that the regime had thoroughly "cleansed" the political landscape, and that conditions for free elections were "currently practically absent in Belarus".

On 16 February 2023, Belarus adopted the Law "On Amendments to the Electoral Code of the Republic of Belarus". According to the law, the minimum voter turnout threshold was abolished and a ban on photographing the ballot paper was introduced. Polling stations for voting abroad were also abolished, and additional requirements for parliamentary candidates were introduced, including a ban on dual citizenship.

The Belarusian authorities refused to invite observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). This marked the third consecutive time that the organization was prevented from observing elections in Belarus. The Central Election Commission of Belarus instead issued invitations to election commissions in other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States and delegates from the Association of World Election Bodies.

Early voting took place from 20 to 24 February 2024, with turnout reaching over 40% according to authorities. The Viasna Human Rights Center stated that students, soldiers, teachers, and other government employees were forced to participate in early voting. Authorities later reported a total turnout of 73%.

On election day, Lukashenko announced that he would run again for president in the 2025 elections. Lukashenko's exiled opponent in the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, called for a boycott of the 2024 election, stating that "there are no people on the ballot who would offer real changes because the regime has only allowed puppets convenient for it to take part".

The United States Department of State condemned the elections, describing them as being "held in a climate of fear under which no electoral processes could be called democratic".

Ukraine's political parties

Ukraine has a multi-party system, with numerous political parties. In the 2014 parliamentary election, 52 political parties nominated candidates. In the 2015 local elections, this number had grown to 132 political parties.

Many parties in Ukraine have very small memberships and are unknown to the general public. Party membership in Ukraine is lower than 1% of the population eligible to vote. National parties that are not represented in Ukraine's national parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, do have representatives in municipal councils.

Ukrainian society's trust in political parties is very low. According to a February 2020 poll, more than 70% of respondents said they did not trust political parties.

Ukrainian oligarchs play a key role in sponsoring political parties and participating in everyday politics. Parties can only register with the Ministry of Justice if they can demonstrate a base of support in two-thirds of Ukraine's Oblasts (Ukraine's 24 primary administrative units) and in two-thirds of the raions of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.

Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine has been characterised as having a ""pro-Russian" versus "pro-Western" cleavage. However, these terms are reductive. Although ethnicity, language, social class, and geography are strong drivers of the country's political cleavages, they have not cleanly or consistently divided Ukraine into a Russophone, Slavicising east and a Ukrainian-speaking, Europhile west.

Since the 2022 Russian invasion, there has been a ban on 11 political parties with alleged ties to Russia. Two of the suspended political parties, Opposition Platform — For Life and Opposition Bloc, have a significant presence in national politics, while the remaining nine parties are marginal.

• Servant of the People
• European Solidarity
• Fatherland
• For the Future
• Restoration of Ukraine
• Platform for Life and Peace
• Justice
• Svoboda
• Self Reliance
• Andriy Baloha's Team
• Kernes Bloc — Successful Kharkiv
• Our Land
• Ukrainian Strategy of Groysman
• Radical Party of Oleh Liashko
• Agrarian Party of Ukraine
• Power of the People
• Civil Position
• European Party of Ukraine
• Ukrainian People's Party
• Party of Regions
• Socialist Party of Ukraine
• People's Movement of Ukraine
• Our Ukraine Bloc
• Fatherland-Unites Opposition
• Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform
• People's Movement "People's Control"

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