Bolivia's Peaceful Strategies: Preventing Armed Conflicts

Bolivia has been in a state of political turmoil since 2019, with accusations of election fraud during the presidential election that year leading to the resignation of President Evo Morales. This event sparked widespread demonstrations and protests, with rising civil unrest between Morales' supporters and opponents. The country now faces an economic crisis, amplified by the coronavirus pandemic, and an ongoing struggle for power between the left-wing Movement for Socialism (MAS) and right-wing political alliances. In this context, how does Bolivia prevent armed conflicts?

Bolivia's first indigenous president, Evo Morales, resigned in 2019 amid rising civil unrest

The civil unrest in Bolivia was sparked by a disputed presidential election in October 2019, which Morales claimed he had won outright. However, there were widespread allegations of electoral fraud, with an initial halt in the publication of results and a subsequent release showing Morales with just enough votes to avoid a second round. This led to intense protests from both opposition groups and Morales loyalists, with schools and businesses being shut down across the country. The situation escalated further when the Organization of American States (OAS) released a report detailing serious irregularities during the vote, and the armed forces sided with the protesters, demanding Morales's resignation.

Amid the growing unrest and calls for his resignation, Morales initially appeared determined to weather the storm. However, as the situation intensified, with some of his own party members resigning, he eventually announced his resignation on November 10, 2019, in an effort to put an end to the unrest. In his resignation speech, Morales and his Vice President, Alvaro Garcia Linera, emphasized their desire to prevent further violence and paralysis of daily life in the country.

Morales's resignation left a political vacuum in Bolivia, and the country continued to be gripped by unrest. Senate vice president and opposition leader, Jeanine Anez, declared herself interim president, but her appointment was controversial and boycotted by Morales's party. The country remained sharply divided along geographic, social, and ethnic lines, with Morales's supporters and opponents clashing in the streets.

The country's political crisis was sparked by accusations of election fraud

Bolivia's political crisis was sparked by accusations of election fraud, which led to civil unrest and the resignation of President Evo Morales. The crisis occurred in the aftermath of the disputed 2019 Bolivian general election, in which Morales was initially declared the winner. However, allegations of fraud emerged, with the opposition publishing a report containing accusations of irregularities such as data swiping and electoral acts where the ruling party obtained more votes than there were registered voters.

An audit by the Organization of American States (OAS) concluded that significant irregularities occurred during the electoral process, including forged ballot counts, ballot stuffing, and the use of a secret server. Observers from the European Union released a similar report, detailing irregularities and manipulation of the voting system. These findings fuelled protests and civil unrest, with both pro- and anti-Morales groups taking to the streets.

Morales denied the allegations of fraud and initially refused to step down, describing the situation as a "coup d'etat". However, as civil unrest intensified and he lost the support of the military and police, Morales ultimately resigned on November 10, 2019, and fled the country.

The political crisis had a profound impact on Bolivia, with the country experiencing violent clashes between pro- and anti-government protesters, resulting in multiple deaths and injuries. The interim government, led by Jeanine Áñez, also faced accusations of human rights abuses and the persecution of opponents. The political crisis and its aftermath highlighted the deep political and social divisions within Bolivia, with the country remaining polarised between supporters of Morales and his Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, and their opponents.

The crisis also had a significant impact on Bolivia's democratic institutions, with the country struggling to restore faith in its electoral system and political processes. The OAS and the EU provided support and technical assistance to help revamp the electoral infrastructure and prevent future fraud. However, the country continued to face challenges, including retribution against MAS supporters and ongoing political divisions.

The military's role in preventing a coup

Bolivia's military plays a crucial role in preventing coups and safeguarding the country's democracy. The Bolivian Armed Forces, comprising the Army, Air Force, and Navy, are responsible for both the external and internal defence of the nation. While the military is tasked with protecting Bolivia from external aggressors, it also has a pivotal role in maintaining internal security and upholding the constitution.

The military's involvement in preventing coups can be analysed through the lens of the country's political history, particularly the tenure of Evo Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president. During Morales' presidency, rising civil unrest and polarisation threatened national unity. The political opposition, comprised of economic elites, vehemently opposed Morales' institutional reforms, which they perceived as a threat to their way of life. This opposition was not limited to legislative arenas but also manifested in the form of strikes and the expansion of private security forces in the eastern regions.

In this context of escalating tensions, the role of the military in preventing a coup becomes evident. Firstly, the military serves as a deterrent to those contemplating a coup. The presence of a well-organised and equipped military force raises the stakes for potential coup plotters, making a successful coup attempt less likely. Secondly, the military can be employed to quell civil unrest and maintain public order. This was particularly relevant during the Morales presidency, where the military was called upon to defend national unity in the face of separatist threats from eastern civic groups.

Additionally, the Bolivian military has a history of direct intervention to prevent coups. A notable example occurred in 1979 when General Alberto Natusch enacted a coup against the interim government of Wálter Guevara. However, Natusch's coup was short-lived, as leftist military forces reasserted control under the leadership of General Juan José Torres, demonstrating the military's ability to intervene and reverse coup attempts.

Moreover, the Bolivian military's chain of command and leadership structure play a crucial role in preventing coups. According to the Organic Law of the Armed Forces, the President of Bolivia has the authority to appoint and replace the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and the Commanders of the Army, Air Force, and Navy. This provision ensures civilian control over the military and mitigates the risk of military factions colluding in coup attempts.

In conclusion, the Bolivian military's role in preventing coups is multifaceted. It serves as a deterrent, a force for maintaining public order, and an interventionary power to directly counter coup attempts. The military's leadership structure, with the President at its apex, further bolsters its ability to safeguard democracy and prevent coups in the country.

The interim government's response to the crisis

The interim government, led by Jeanine Áñez, faced the challenging task of navigating Bolivia through a period of political and economic turmoil. Here is a detailed look at their response to the crisis:

Addressing the election fraud allegations:

Jeanine Áñez, the second vice president of the Senate and a political opponent of Morales, became the interim president on 13 November 2019. Her appointment was highly controversial but endorsed by the Constitutional Court. The allegations of election fraud during the 2019 presidential election, which led to the resignation of Evo Morales, sparked widespread demonstrations and protests. The opposition accused Morales of ignoring the results of a referendum that banned him from running for president again and manipulating the voting system.

Restoring public order:

On 15 November 2019, Áñez adopted a decree deploying the military to defend society and maintain public order. This decree was later repealed on 28 November due to its inconsistency with international human rights standards. The decree exempted the armed forces from criminal responsibility when acting in self-defence or a state of necessity, which sent a message to soldiers that they would not be held accountable for abuses. This led to concerns about potential human rights violations and the excessive use of force by the military.

Confronting the COVID-19 pandemic:

The Áñez government faced the challenge of leading Bolivia through the COVID-19 pandemic, which further complicated the political and economic situation. Social distancing measures were implemented, and the presidential elections were postponed three times to ensure the safety of the population. The elections were initially scheduled for 3 May 2020 but eventually took place on 18 October 2020.

Economic challenges:

Bolivia faced an unprecedented economic crisis during the interim government's tenure, amplified by the coronavirus pandemic. This economic crisis contributed to social unrest and demonstrations demanding more transparency and legitimacy in political processes.

Judicial reform:

The Áñez government was criticised for pursuing baseless charges against political opponents and failing to uphold judicial independence. The administration was accused of promoting judicial changes that threatened the rule of law. However, they also repealed a decree that shielded military personnel from accountability for abuses during crowd-control operations.

Human rights concerns:

The interim government was faced with addressing human rights concerns, including violence against women, due process rights of detainees, child labour, and impunity for human rights violations. Additionally, there were concerns about the rights of indigenous communities and their ability to exercise their right to free, prior, and informed consent regarding measures affecting them.

International relations:

Bolivia, under the Áñez government, consistently opposed resolutions spotlighting human rights abuses in other countries, such as Venezuela and Nicaragua. This stance contributed to criticism of the country's commitment to upholding human rights on an international level.

The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on Bolivia's political and economic situation

The coronavirus pandemic has impacted Bolivia's political and economic situation in several ways. On the political front, the pandemic has caused delays in elections and led to protests and blockades by supporters of former President Evo Morales. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal postponed the planned vote from September 6 to October 18, citing the need to ensure the safety of the electorate. This decision sparked anger among protesters, who accused the interim government of Jeanine Áñez of attempting to cling to power. As a result, nationwide blockades were erected, disrupting the supply of essential goods, including oxygen, to hospitals. The UN Secretary-General appealed for negotiations to resolve the crisis, highlighting the vulnerability of Bolivia's healthcare system during the pandemic.

The pandemic has also exacerbated existing political tensions in the country. In the context of protests related to the 2019 elections, allegations of human rights violations and political interference in the justice system have surfaced. The Luis Arce government has been accused of pursuing excessive and unsubstantiated charges of terrorism and genocide against former President Áñez. Additionally, the justice system's lack of independence has been exposed, with a report by international experts revealing politically motivated charges and inadequate investigations.

Economically, Bolivia has faced challenges due to the pandemic. The country has experienced shortages of essential goods, including fuel, milk, bread, and butter, impacting the population's purchasing power. The World Bank approved a total of $254 million in loans and credits to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic on vulnerable households. This funding aimed to support temporary cash transfers and social distancing measures to protect lives and livelihoods.

Bolivia's economy was already facing difficulties before the pandemic, with minimal reserves, distorted relative prices, and a large public sector deficit. The pandemic has likely exacerbated these issues, and there are concerns about a potential currency crisis due to the fixed exchange rate and lack of international reserves. The prolonged resolution of economic issues could lead to higher economic costs and further political turbulence in the country.

Overall, the coronavirus pandemic has had a significant impact on Bolivia's political and economic landscape, exacerbating existing tensions and vulnerabilities and requiring urgent attention and comprehensive reforms to address the challenges faced by the country.

Frequently asked questions