The Lingering Impact Of Afghanistan On American Perspectives

The war in Afghanistan has been the longest war in US history. It has been almost two decades since the US invaded Afghanistan with the clear objective of defeating Al-Qaeda and its Taliban hosts and preventing a repeat of the 9/11 attacks.

Since then, the US has spent trillions of dollars, lost thousands of troops, and witnessed tens of thousands of Afghan civilian deaths. Despite the initial military victory over the Taliban, the US has been in a state of floundering and failure.

The US got distracted by the war in Iraq and lost focus on Afghanistan. The questionable alliance with Pakistan, which continued to arm and support the Taliban, also played a role in the failure. The US changed missions, changed priorities, and lost sight of the initial objective.

The Washington Post published a review of hundreds of interviews and documents, highlighting a years-long campaign of misrepresentation by military officials. While presidents and military officials painted a rosy picture, the reality on the ground was a deepening quagmire with no end in sight.

Despite the new information, the current administration has not changed its strategy in Afghanistan. The Lessons Learned reports confirm that there is no military solution to the conflict. Nevertheless, the administration announced it would send more troops to Afghanistan.

The US needs to learn from its mistakes in Afghanistan and make strategic adjustments to improve future operations.

The US public supported the war in Afghanistan, but not the way it was handled

Initially, the American public supported the entry into the war, understanding it might be long and difficult. This support transcended partisan lines, with Democrats and Republicans alike backing the military mission. However, as the war dragged on, public sentiment shifted. By 2018, nearly half of Americans believed the US had failed to achieve its goals in Afghanistan, a view that only intensified over time.

Polls conducted in 2021, as the last US troops were departing, revealed a starkly negative perception of the war. A Pew Research Center poll found that 58% of veterans believed the war was not worth fighting, and an AP/NORC poll showed that 62% of Americans shared this sentiment. The sense of failure was palpable, with 71% of American adults deeming the war a failure in a separate poll.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan further exacerbated the negative views. The public disapproved of the way the withdrawal was executed, with only 26% approving of the handling among those who supported the decision to withdraw. This sentiment extended beyond US borders, with a median of 56% of individuals across surveyed countries believing the situation was not handled well.

The war's impact on US views is evident in the perception of its outcome. The US public felt that the war did not conclude satisfactorily, and the Taliban's resurgence heightened concerns about national security. The war's legacy is one of uncertainty and a sense of unfulfilled obligations, with many Americans believing the US had a responsibility to the Afghan people that remained unfulfilled.

The US has spent trillions of dollars on the war, with little to show for it

The US has spent trillions of dollars on the war in Afghanistan, with little to show for it. The war has cost the US $2 trillion, with some estimates placing the figure at $2.3 trillion. The money was spent on waging war, counternarcotics, training Afghan military and police forces, economic development, reconstruction programs, interest, and veterans' care by 2059.

Despite the enormous cost, the Taliban has regained strength and controls much of the country. Opium production has quadrupled, and Afghanistan remains one of the world's largest sources of refugees and migrants. The war has resulted in thousands of American and Afghan casualties. While there have been some improvements in education and democratic institutions, most Afghans still live in poverty.

• $1.5 trillion on waging war
• $10 billion on counternarcotics efforts, which have been deemed a "failure" as Afghanistan is the source of 80% of global illicit opium production
• $87 billion to train Afghan military and police forces, which have been unable to operate independently
• $24 billion on economic development, which has had little impact as most Afghans still live in poverty, and the economy remains small and corrupt
• $30 billion on reconstruction programs, much of which was lost to corruption and failed projects
• $500 billion on interest for borrowed money
• $1.4 trillion on veterans' care by 2059

The war in Afghanistan has had a significant opportunity cost for the US. The money spent could have been invested in other areas such as healthcare, infrastructure, and education, potentially creating more jobs and improving social outcomes. Additionally, the war has diverted attention and resources from more pressing national security threats, such as the rise of China and an aggressive Russia.

The US's failure in Afghanistan can be attributed to several factors:

• Lack of a clear strategy: The US did not have a well-defined strategy for achieving its goals in Afghanistan and often shifted its focus, leading to a lack of coordination and inconsistent policies.
• Misallocation of resources: The US spent billions of dollars on programs that were poorly conceived or riddled with corruption, resulting in wasted funds and little impact.
• Short-term thinking: The US often made decisions based on short-term political expediency rather than long-term strategic goals, leading to unsustainable programs and a lack of commitment to seeing initiatives through.
• Underestimating the challenge: The US underestimated the complexity of Afghanistan's social, political, and cultural landscape, leading to ill-conceived interventions that failed to address the needs and desires of the Afghan people.
• Inadequate understanding of the enemy: The US failed to recognize the resilience and adaptability of the Taliban, who were able to regroup and gain support by exploiting the corruption and incompetence of the Afghan government.
• Lack of accountability: There was a lack of oversight and evaluation of US efforts, allowing waste, fraud, and abuse to go unchecked.
• Poor coordination: The US did not have a clear chain of command for reconstruction efforts, leading to a lack of coherence and ineffectiveness in achieving goals.
• Short deployment cycles: The constant turnover of US personnel disrupted the continuity of programs and made it difficult to build long-term relationships and trust with Afghan partners.

The US public is relatively conservative on troop presence in Afghanistan

Support for Maintaining US Military Footprint in Afghanistan

A survey conducted in October 2019 found that despite Americans' hesitancy to deploy US troops into other conflicts, they remain comparably supportive, after 18 years of war, of maintaining the US military footprint in Afghanistan. The survey found little polarization on Afghanistan, with 38% of Democrats and 34% of Republicans favoring maintaining current troop levels in Afghanistan. A plurality of respondents (34%) favored maintaining current troop levels.

Support for US Obligation Towards Afghan Government and Society

Regardless of the wisdom of the initial intervention, a plurality of respondents (44%) also felt that the United States has an obligation toward the Afghan government and segments of Afghan society affected by the war. Among those respondents, nearly one-third (30%), including 28% of Democrats, felt that responsibility should take the form of a limited military role.

Lack of Polarization on Afghanistan

At a time of deep partisan polarization on nearly every issue, there is little on Afghanistan. Even when partisan disparities occur on policy preferences related to the war in Afghanistan, they generally do not appear severe enough to constitute polarization. Republicans (63%) were 23 percentage points more likely than Democrats (40%) to disagree with the idea that the United States has a responsibility to ensure that Afghanistan has a liberal democratic government. Despite the difference, however, taking no responsibility for Afghanistan’s democracy was the most popular response for both Republicans and Democrats, with only 22% of Republicans and 33% of Democrats agreeing that the United States should ensure that Afghanistan has a liberal democracy.

Trump's Impact on Public Opinion on Afghanistan

President Trump’s policy toward Afghanistan included negotiating with the Taliban (on and off) to end the war. Respondents were divided on negotiating with the Taliban, with 42% supporting and 41% opposing. Typically, we would expect Republicans’ opinion to fall in line with Trump’s stated aims. However, Republican respondents were still nine percentage points more likely to disagree (49%) than agree (40%) with negotiations. Likewise, we noted the lack of a shift among Democrats to oppose the president. Republican respondents were 14 percentage points more likely to disagree than Democrats (35%).

Criticism of Peace Summit with the Taliban

Last year, the president revealed that a peace summit had been scheduled with the Taliban at Camp David—for Sept. 8—but ultimately canceled. When asked to respond to plans for the summit, 82% of respondents expressed criticism of the summit for either hosting the Taliban on US soil, signing an agreement with the group in general, or hosting the summit so close to an anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. These critical respondents included 83% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans, a highly unusual show of disapproval about the summit.

In short, Americans displayed views that were uncharacteristically supportive of the US military mission in Afghanistan given trends in public opinion on other conflicts. These views were not affected by party- and Trump-based polarization in the same way as other issues of interest.

The US public supported President Biden's decision to withdraw troops, but not the way it was done

The US public supported President Biden's decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, but not the way it was done. A Pew Research Center survey conducted in August 2021 found that 54% of US adults agreed with the decision to withdraw troops, while 42% disagreed. However, only about a quarter (26%) of respondents approved of the Biden administration's handling of the situation, with 42% rating it as poor.

The US public's support for the withdrawal of troops can be attributed to several factors:

• Voter opposition to staying in Afghanistan: Biden argued that it was time to "end the forever war", a sentiment that resonated with voters.
• The human and financial cost of the war: The war in Afghanistan lasted for 20 years and resulted in the deaths of over 2,400 US troops and more than 46,000 Afghan civilians. The US spent more than $2.3 trillion on the war, seeking to remake Afghanistan with little success.
• The lack of a clear mission: Biden and others argued that the primary objective of the war, to degrade the threat of terrorism against the US and its allies, had been accomplished a decade ago. Al-Qaida's capabilities were a fraction of what they used to be, and the Islamic State in Khorasan (ISK) was a more immediate threat.
• The need to focus on domestic challenges: Biden emphasized the need to address pressing domestic issues such as bolstering American competitiveness and fighting the pandemic. He also wanted to shift the focus of US foreign policy to addressing challenges posed by China and Russia.

However, the way the withdrawal was handled faced criticism from both Republicans and Democrats. The rapid collapse of the Afghan government and the Taliban's takeover of the country took many by surprise. There were concerns about the hasty and chaotic evacuation of US citizens and Afghan allies, with some Americans and vulnerable Afghans left behind. The Biden administration was criticized for failing to anticipate and plan for the rapid deterioration of the situation, and for not having an effective strategy in place.

The US public is divided on negotiating with the Taliban

The US public's views on negotiating with the Taliban are influenced by several factors, including partisan affiliation, the perceived success or failure of the war in Afghanistan, and the perceived threat posed by the Taliban. Some Americans see negotiating with the Taliban as a necessary step towards ending the war and achieving peace, while others view it as a concession to a terrorist group.

Additionally, the US public's views on negotiating with the Taliban have evolved over time, with support for negotiations increasing as the war in Afghanistan dragged on and public opinion on the war became more negative. However, there is still significant opposition to negotiating with the Taliban, particularly among Republicans and those who see the group as a terrorist threat.

The US public's views on negotiating with the Taliban are also shaped by media coverage and political rhetoric. For example, the Trump administration's decision to negotiate with the Taliban was met with mixed reactions, with some seeing it as a necessary step towards ending the war, while others criticized the move as conceding to a terrorist group.

Overall, the US public is divided on negotiating with the Taliban, with some seeing it as a necessary step towards peace, while others view it as a concession to a terrorist group. Public opinion on the issue is influenced by partisan affiliation, the perceived success or failure of the war, and the perceived threat posed by the Taliban.

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