India-Azerbaijan Relations: Strategic Partners Or Convenient Allies?

India and Azerbaijan have a long history of relations, with cultural exchanges and trade links dating back to the medieval period. In recent years, the two countries have enjoyed friendly relations, with India recognising Azerbaijan's independence in 1991 and establishing diplomatic relations in 1992. Azerbaijan is an important country for India in the Caucasus region, with bilateral trade increasing substantially over the years, reaching US$1.435 billion in 2023. India is also a key source of tourists for Azerbaijan, with over 115,000 tourists from India visiting the country in 2023. In addition to economic ties, India and Azerbaijan have also identified potential areas of cooperation in various sectors, including pharmaceuticals, tourism, IT, science and technology, agriculture, and education. However, one area of contention between the two countries has been India's arms sales to Armenia, which has been condemned by Azerbaijan due to its conflict with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

India's arms sales to Armenia

India and Azerbaijan have a long history of cultural exchange and friendly relations. In recent years, bilateral trade has increased substantially, with India becoming Azerbaijan's seventh-largest trading partner. Azerbaijan is an important country in the Caucasus region for India, and their relationship is evolving well.

However, India has also been strengthening its ties with Armenia, a country with which it shares a common interest in countering the influence of the 'three brothers': Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Pakistan. In 2020, India signed a $40 million arms deal with Armenia for the supply of four SWATHI radars to detect the location of weapons. These radars have been used to track incoming artillery shells, mortars, and rockets, and pinpoint the locations of enemy launchers and positions. In 2022, India signed another significant export order for missiles, rockets, and ammunition to Armenia, which included the first-ever export of the indigenous Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers. The total value of the deal is estimated to be over Rs 2,000 crore.

The military dimension of the relationship between India and Armenia is expected to continue developing, with India already appointing a defense attaché in Armenia. India has also expressed interest in offering training to Armenian defense personnel and conducting war games. The Indian-Armenian arms trade is seen as a win-win solution for both countries, with the potential to boost India's defense market globally.

Azerbaijan's aggression in the Nagorno-Karabakh region

During the Soviet period, Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast faced heavy discrimination from Soviet Azerbaijani authorities, who sought to suppress Armenian culture and identity. While Armenians remained the majority population in the region, Azerbaijani authorities pressured them to leave and encouraged Azerbaijanis to settle in Nagorno-Karabakh. In 1988, a referendum was held to transfer the region to Soviet Armenia, citing self-determination laws, but this was met with pogroms against Armenians across Azerbaijan, sparking violence that escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s.

The First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988-1994) resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and the displacement of an estimated one million people. Armenian forces, backed by the Republic of Armenia, occupied Nagorno-Karabakh and approximately 9% of Azerbaijan's territory outside the enclave. A Russian-brokered ceasefire was signed in 1994, leading to two decades of relative stability, although border clashes and violations continued to occur.

In late 2020, the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in a significant Azerbaijani victory, with Azerbaijan regaining control of all occupied territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh and capturing one-third of the region itself. This was followed by a blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh in December 2022, and a large-scale military offensive in September 2023, leading to a ceasefire agreement and the official dissolution of Artsakh on 1 January 2024.

Throughout the conflict, Azerbaijan has gradually re-established control over the Nagorno-Karabakh region and the surrounding districts. The international community has made various attempts at mediation and called for ceasefires, but the situation remains unresolved, with periodic bouts of fighting and ongoing tensions between the two countries.

The International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC)

The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is a multimodal transportation network connecting India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Northern Europe. The INSTC was established in St. Petersburg on September 12, 2000, by Iran, Russia, and India to promote transportation cooperation among member states. The corridor spans 7,200 kilometres (4,500 miles) and includes seaports on the Persian Gulf and in the Caspian region, as well as road and rail routes.

The primary objective of the INSTC is to increase trade connectivity and reduce costs in terms of time and money compared to traditional routes. By improving transport connectivity, the corridor is expected to increase bilateral trade volumes between Russia, Central Asia, Iran, and India. Analysts predict that the corridor will increase trade connectivity between major cities such as Mumbai, Moscow, Tehran, Baku, Bandar Abbas, Astrakhan, and Bandar Anzali.

India, Iran, Russia, and Azerbaijan are actively involved in the development of the INSTC. Azerbaijan, in particular, is heavily involved in the project, currently building new train lines and roads to complete missing links in the corridor. The construction of the Gazvin-Rasht-Astara railway route, connecting Iran and Azerbaijan, is a crucial component of the INSTC. This railway route is expected to improve trade relations between Iran and Azerbaijan and benefit other countries, including India and Russia, in the future.

The INSTC is also strategically important for Iran and Russia, as it helps them circumvent Western sanctions and lower trade costs while increasing trade volume. The corridor provides an alternative to the conventional deep-sea Suez Canal route, which is subject to U.S. sanctions and economic diplomacy. The INSTC is predicted to be 30% cheaper and 40% shorter than the traditional route via the Suez Canal.

In addition to the economic benefits, the INSTC also fosters cultural ties and exchanges between the participating countries. For example, the medieval monument Ateshgah fire temple in Baku, with its Devanagari and Gurmukhi wall inscriptions, is a testament to the age-old historical relations and cultural exchanges between India and Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan's ties with Pakistan

Azerbaijan and Pakistan have a unique political relationship that has surpassed territorial boundaries and geographical distances. Pakistan was among the first states to recognize Azerbaijan’s independence following the 1991 Soviet collapse. Today, Pakistan is the only country that has not established diplomatic relations with Baku’s main foe, Armenia.

The two nations are considered "strategic partners" and have been enhancing contact between their respective capitals. In March 2013, officials from both countries stated that Azerbaijan and Pakistan "enjoy strategic partnership relations".

Military Cooperation

Pakistan is one of the owners of nuclear weapons and has a highly developed military industry. Azerbaijan has approached Pakistan with wishes to further expand cooperation in the fields of joint production of defence products. In 2014, the countries signed an agreement on mutual military cooperation. Over the past decade, Pakistani military experts have trained about a hundred Azerbaijani military units. Azerbaijan is holding talks with Pakistan to purchase JF-17 Thunder multirole fighter aircraft.

International Support

Pakistan is the only country in the world that does not recognize Armenia as a country. Pakistan is one of the few countries to recognize the Khojaly massacre, allegedly carried out by Armenia against Azerbaijanis as a genocide. Pakistan also supports Azerbaijan's side of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In turn, Azerbaijan supports Pakistan's stance on Kashmir.

Humanitarian Cooperation

Between 2012 and 2018, the Heydar Aliyev Foundation, on the basis of humanitarian cooperation, aided several local Pakistani social welfare institutions and charitable organizations. The Foundation also issued funds for the construction of a water supply scheme in Dera Ismail Khan District and arranged free treatment at different hospitals in Peshawar city. Moreover, the stipends of more than 30 deserving students of 12 Pakistani universities and the Rara Girls School are paid by the Heydar Aliyev Foundation.

Cultural Connections

The relationship between Pakistan and Azerbaijan continues to develop in the religious and cultural spheres. There is a special branch of the language department at Baku State University specifically dedicated to the study of Urdu. In 2004, the book "On the works of the prominent Azerbaijani thinker Jalil Mammadguluzadeh" was published in Islamabad, in English and Urdu.

The Caspian Sea route

The Caspian Sea is the world's largest inland body of water, often described as the world's largest lake, and is located between Europe and Asia. It is bounded by Kazakhstan to the northeast, Russia to the northwest, Azerbaijan to the southwest, Iran to the south, and Turkmenistan to the southeast. The sea covers a surface area of 371,000 square kilometres and has a volume of 78,200 cubic kilometres.

The Caspian Sea region is rich in fossil fuels, particularly oil and natural gas, which has made it a crucial strategic area for international trade and transportation. The region currently supplies around 1.4-1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day to world markets, with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan accounting for the majority of this output.

The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is a 7,200-kilometre-long ship, rail, and road route that aims to facilitate trade and transportation between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Central Asia. The INSTC provides a means for these countries to bypass Western monitoring and sanctions and improve their economic ties. The corridor is expected to be completed in 2017 and will substantially reduce transport times and costs between the connected regions.

The Caspian Sea plays a vital role in the INSTC as it provides a direct link between Iran, Russia, and Azerbaijan. The sea's connectivity to other waterways, such as the Volga-Don Canal and the Volga-Baltic Waterway, further enhances its strategic importance. However, the lack of well-developed infrastructure and the limited capacity of existing canals have hindered the full potential of the INSTC. There are plans to develop new canals, such as the Eurasia Canal, to improve transportation efficiency in the region.

The development of the INSTC and the utilisation of the Caspian Sea route have the potential to strengthen the economic and geopolitical ties between the countries involved. By providing a direct connection between South Asia and Russia, the INSTC can promote trade and economic growth in the region. Additionally, the increased usage of the Caspian Sea route can enhance the energy security of the participating countries by facilitating the transportation of oil and natural gas reserves in the region.

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