Belarus-Russia Relations: A Complex Love Story?

Belarus and Russia have a complex relationship that is based on shared history, language, culture, and economic and political ties. While Russia views Belarus as a brotherly nation, Belarus considers itself a separate sovereign country. Belarus has been a key ally of Russia, especially during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which was launched from Belarusian territory. However, the dynamic between the two countries has shifted due to the war, and Belarus is walking a tightrope between Russia and the West. The future of their relationship remains uncertain as the war in Ukraine continues.

The Union State of Belarus and Russia

The Union State is ruled by the Supreme State Council, which includes the heads of state, respective governments, and both chambers of parliament from each country. The current president of the Supreme State Council is Alexander Lukashenko, who has held the position since 2000. The Union State has its own budget and property, and funds programmes in various fields such as space, information technology, agriculture, and border security.

While the Union State has brought the two countries closer together, there have been challenges and disagreements along the way. Belarus and Russia have failed to agree on certain issues, such as the creation of a common currency and disputes over gas prices. Additionally, there have been times when the relationship between the two countries has been strained, such as when Belarus accused Russia of attempting to destabilise the country ahead of its 2020 presidential election.

Despite these challenges, the Union State of Belarus and Russia remains an important aspect of the relationship between the two countries, with Russia being Belarus's largest and most important economic and political partner. The Union State provides a framework for cooperation and integration, and the two countries continue to work together in various fields, particularly in the military domain.

Belarus's sovereignty

In recent years, there have been growing concerns about Belarus's sovereignty due to its close relationship with Russia. Both countries share cultural and historical ties, and Russia is Belarus's largest and most important economic and political partner. They are also members of several international organizations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Since 1996, Belarus and Russia have been working towards forming a Union State, which would involve monetary union, equal rights, single citizenship, and a common foreign and defense policy. However, the process has been fraught with delays and disputes. Lukashenko has been reluctant to commit fully to the Union State, as it could diminish his personal power and result in Belarus being swallowed up by a Kremlin-led superstate.

Despite Lukashenko's hesitancy, Belarus has become increasingly dependent on Russia economically, militarily, and politically. Russia has provided Belarus with economic subsidies, military aid, and political support. In return, Belarus has allowed Russia to use its territory for the invasion of Ukraine and to deploy nuclear weapons. This has raised concerns among Belarus's neighbours and Western countries, who see the growing Russia-Belarus alliance as a threat to regional security.

The balance of power between the two countries seems to be shifting in Russia's favour. In 2020, Lukashenko publicly accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of trying to incorporate Belarus into Russia, which led to Russia cutting economic subsidies. However, in the face of Western sanctions and increasing isolation, Lukashenko has had little choice but to turn to Russia for support. As a result, Belarus has become more integrated into the Russian economy and legal system, and its foreign policy has become increasingly aligned with Moscow.

While Belarus remains formally independent, the country's sovereignty is under threat. The Kremlin views Belarus as a "brotherly nation" that should defer to Moscow on important matters. At the same time, the Belarusian government, opposition, and people see themselves as distinct from Russia and strive to demonstrate their sovereignty. The future of Belarus's sovereignty remains uncertain, but it will likely depend on the country's ability to resist Russian influence and assert its independence on the world stage.

Belarus's support of Russia in the war in Ukraine

Belarus has supported Russia in the war in Ukraine in several ways. Firstly, it allowed the Russian Armed Forces to conduct military drills on its territory before the invasion, and permitted Russian troops to remain in the country after they were supposed to finish. Belarus also allowed Russia to launch part of the invasion from its territory, giving Russia the shortest land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. Additionally, Belarus has permitted Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its soil and fire upon Ukrainian targets.

There have been several reports from the Belarusian opposition and the Ukrainian military that Belarusian troops are fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine. However, these claims have been denied by the leader of Belarus, Aleksander Lukashenko, who has stated that the Belarusian Armed Forces will not participate directly in the conflict. Despite this assurance, Lukashenko has revoked Belarus's neutral and non-nuclear status, and allowed Russian tactical nuclear weapons to be stationed in the country.

The involvement of Belarus in the war has been met with opposition from its citizens, with protests being held and Belarusian activists disrupting the work of the Belarusian Railway, which transports Russian military trains. Hundreds of people in Belarus who have shown solidarity with Ukraine have been arrested and sentenced to prison on charges of "extremism" and "conspiracy against the state". The Belarusian state has also participated in the forced transfer of Ukrainian children to Belarus, with at least 2,100 Ukrainian children being held in recreational camps, according to a Belarusian opposition figure.

The Belarusian-Russian economic partnership

The economic partnership between Belarus and Russia is a key aspect of their complex and unique relationship. Russia is Belarus' largest and most important economic partner, and the two countries share a land border and constitute the supranational Union State. The Union State of Belarus and Russia, established by an agreement signed in 1999, provides a legal basis for integration between the two countries.

At the end of 2022, mutual trade between Belarus and Russia increased by almost 15%, with Russia accounting for more than half of Belarus' foreign trade. Russia also serves as a major export market for Belarusian manufactures. The two countries have effectively developed cooperation in areas such as energy, transport, and industrial cooperation, and have launched joint projects for the production of import-substituting products.

Belarus and Russia are members of several international organizations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the United Nations. Their economic partnership is influenced by their geographic proximity, shared history, and cultural links.

However, the relationship between Belarus and Russia is not entirely harmonious, and there have been tensions and disputes. In 2020, signs of strain emerged when Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of attempting to incorporate Belarus into Russia, leading to Russia cutting economic subsidies. Additionally, there have been trade disputes, border disputes, and a "Milk War" in 2009 when Russia banned dairy imports from Belarus.

Despite these differences, Russia and Belarus have maintained a close economic partnership, and Russia continues to be a key trade partner for Belarus.

The future of the relationship

The future of the Belarus-Russia relationship is uncertain, but several factors indicate that Belarus will continue to be drawn closer to Russia, both politically and economically.

Firstly, the two countries share a long history of cultural, linguistic, and economic ties. They also have intertwined defence industries, with Belarus's defence sector heavily dependent on contracts with Moscow. This dependence is further evidenced by the fact that Russia accounts for more than half of Belarus's foreign trade.

Secondly, both countries are led by highly personalist regimes that share a nostalgic view of the Soviet Union. While the relationship is not one of equals, with Russia often making demands that Belarus cannot refuse, they do have a shared interest in pushing back against the influence of the West and NATO. This is demonstrated by their joint military exercises, coordinated air defence systems, and the presence of Russian military bases in Belarus.

However, there are also signs of strain in the relationship. Belarus's President, Alexander Lukashenko, has on several occasions asserted his country's sovereignty and independence from Russia, even as he aligns himself with Moscow's interests. For instance, in 2019, Lukashenko stated that Belarusians are not Russian and encouraged the use of the Belarusian language. He has also accused Russia of using economic leverage to push for a merger of the two countries and has made overtures to the EU to ward off proposals for tighter integration with Russia.

The war in Ukraine has further shifted the dynamic between the two countries. While Belarus has supported Russia, for example, by allowing its territory to be used for the invasion and by hosting Russian nuclear weapons, there are signs that Lukashenko is reluctant to fully commit to the war effort. He has refused to send Belarusian troops into Ukraine and has not actively dealt with partisan activity targeting Russian transport routes.

In conclusion, the future of the Belarus-Russia relationship will depend on several factors, including the outcome of the war in Ukraine and the ability of both countries to maintain their authoritarian regimes. If Russia suffers serious setbacks in Ukraine, Belarus may attempt to break free and seek alliances with the West. However, if the war drags on and Belarus continues to lean on Russia for economic and political support, it will likely become further entangled in Moscow's orbit, despite Lukashenko's attempts to maintain a degree of strategic independence.

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