Belarus's Nuclear Arsenal: A Threat To Global Peace?

Belarus does not possess nuclear weapons of its own, but it currently hosts Russian tactical nuclear weapons on its soil. In 2023, the country's president, Alexander Lukashenko, announced that Belarus had started taking delivery of these weapons, which was confirmed by Western officials. This move is seen as a political message from Russia to ramp up pressure on NATO, but some experts downplay its military significance, arguing that Russia can already reach any place in NATO with nuclear missiles from its own territory. Belarus has also adopted a new military doctrine that, if approved, would be the first step towards deploying nuclear weapons across the country.

Belarus has no weapons of mass destruction

When Belarus gained independence in December 1991, there were 81 road-mobile SS-25s on its territory, stationed at three missile bases, as well as an unknown number of tactical nuclear weapons. However, Minsk ratified the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) in February 1993 and joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear weapon state in July 1993. As a result, Belarus transferred all of its nuclear weapons to Russia by November 1996.

Since then, no nuclear forces have been stationed in Belarus, although the country has continued to cooperate with Russia in the military sphere. In 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia had moved some of its tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus, a Russian ally. This move was intended as a warning to the West and an attempt to increase pressure on NATO's eastern flank. Belarus has also written a new military doctrine that stresses the use of tactical nuclear weapons to prevent foreign attacks. However, it is important to note that Belarus does not have control over the Russian warheads on its soil.

Belarus transferred all its nuclear weapons to Russia in the 1990s

In January 1992, Russian President Boris Yeltsin declared that all former Soviet chemical weapons had been transferred to Russia. Belarus also does not have a chemical warfare (CW) program and is a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), which it ratified in 1996. Belarus did not inherit any major ballistic missile production or design facilities from the Soviet Union. However, a number of Belarusian firms continue to cooperate with Russian missile and space enterprises.

In 2023, the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, announced that his country had started taking delivery of Russian tactical nuclear weapons. This move was seen as a way to deter aggression from NATO countries, particularly Poland, which borders Belarus to the west. Lukashenko has stated that Belarus would “immediately respond with everything we have”, including nuclear weapons, if provoked by neighbouring NATO countries.

In May 2024, Belarus conducted checks on its army's readiness to deploy tactical nuclear weapons on orders from President Lukashenko. This came after Russia's Defence Ministry announced plans to hold drills involving tactical nuclear weapons. While Belarus does not have nuclear weapons of its own, it agreed to host Russian tactical warheads on its territory in 2023 amid Russia's escalating war with Ukraine.

Belarus has a small civilian nuclear research program

The Sosny facility's IRT nuclear research reactor was shut down in 1989, and it is worth noting that the HEU used in the research program was provided by the Soviet government for this reactor. The United States pledged to provide financial and technical assistance to expedite the process of returning the HEU to Russia. While 85 kg of HEU was removed under the GTRI in November 2010, the suspension of cooperation in 2011 disrupted this process.

Belarus's nuclear research program also includes the construction of a nuclear power plant in the Astravyets District near the Lithuanian border. This plant is being built by the Russian nuclear power firm Atomstroyexport with Russian financing. The plant's first reactor is expected to be fuelled by the end of 2020, and the second reactor is scheduled for completion in 2022, doubling the plant's capacity to 2.4 gigawatts.

While Belarus does not possess nuclear weapons, it has adopted a new military doctrine that includes the potential deployment of tactical nuclear weapons as a preventive deterrence measure. This doctrine still requires approval from the All-Belarusian People's Assembly, a representative body that operates in parallel with the parliament.

Belarus has a nuclear power plant under construction

Belarus is constructing a nuclear power plant in the Astravyets District near the Lithuanian border. The plant is being built by the Russian nuclear power firm Atomstroyexport with Russian financing. The first of two Astravyets reactors is expected to be finished by the end of 2020, with the second reactor scheduled for completion in 2022. The second reactor will double the plant's capacity to 2.4 gigawatts.

The construction of the nuclear power plant has raised environmental concerns in Lithuania, which has attempted to block its construction under international law.

While Belarus does not possess nuclear weapons, it has hosted Russian tactical nuclear weapons on its territory since 2023. In 2024, Belarus conducted checks on its army's readiness to deploy these weapons. The presence of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus is intended as a deterrent to potential adversaries and as a warning to the West.

Belarus has also adopted a new military doctrine that, if approved, would be the first step towards deploying nuclear weapons across the country. This doctrine emphasises that Belarus does not treat any nation as its enemy and is open to cooperation with any country, including NATO states, provided they stop their aggressive rhetoric.

Belarus has a new military doctrine that involves nuclear weapons

Belarus has adopted a new military doctrine that involves nuclear weapons. The doctrine, which requires approval from the All-Belarusian People's Assembly, is the first step towards deploying nuclear weapons across the country.

A Preventative Measure

According to Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin, the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons is an important preventative measure to deter potential adversaries from launching armed aggression against Belarus. Khrenin emphasised that the new doctrine demonstrates that Belarus does not treat any nation as its enemy.

A Response to NATO Threats

The move by Belarus comes as neighbouring Baltic states signed an agreement to reinforce their borders with Belarus and Russia. Experts have previously identified these countries as potential targets for invasion by Russia, Belarus' ally, if it manages to cut them off from NATO allies.

A History of Nuclear Weapon Transfer

Belarus gained independence in 1991 and transferred all of its Soviet-era nuclear warheads to Russia in the 1990s. In 2023, Russia moved some of its tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus, stationing them several hundred miles closer to NATO territory.

A Political Message

While the movement of nuclear weapons into Belarus sends a clear political message, some experts downplay its military significance, arguing that Russia can already reach any place in NATO with nuclear missiles from its own territory.

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