Azerbaijan-Iran Relations: Exploring Azerbaijan's Geopolitical Ambitions

Azerbaijan and Iran have historically shared cultural, religious, and ethnic ties. Both countries are majority Shia Muslim, with Iran and Azerbaijan respectively holding the highest and second-highest Shia population percentages in the world. The territory of what is now the Republic of Azerbaijan was separated from Iran in the first half of the 19th century through the Russo-Persian Wars. The two countries share a border and approximately 618km of land.

Despite these similarities, Azerbaijan and Iran's political alignment varies by degree. Azerbaijan has become increasingly pro-Western, allying with Israel, Turkey, and the United States, while Iran is largely pro-Russian and pro-Chinese due to its hostility towards the U.S. and has been targeted with sanctions.

In recent years, tensions have escalated between the two countries, with Azerbaijan criticising Iran's alleged support for Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and Iran accusing Azerbaijan of inciting separatist sentiment within its borders. However, the two countries have also collaborated on energy projects, such as the construction of a gas pipeline from Iran to Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan Autonomous Region.

The growing relationship between Azerbaijan and Israel has been a significant source of contention, with Iran warning that this could constitute a national security threat. Tensions have increasingly manifested in military exercises and diplomatic actions, such as the expulsion of diplomats. Despite these escalations, some analysts predict a cycle of de-escalation due to economic interdependence and the presence of open diplomatic channels.

Azerbaijan's relationship with Israel

Azerbaijan and Israel have a strong strategic partnership, with close political, economic, and military ties. In recent years, their relationship has been elevated to a new strategic level, with both countries cooperating on security and trade.

Israel is a significant buyer of Azerbaijani oil, with Baku supplying 40% of Israel's energy demands and 65% of its crude oil in 2021. Israel, in turn, is a major supplier of weapons to Azerbaijan, accounting for 60% of its arms purchases between 2015 and 2019. Azerbaijan was Israel's second-largest destination for weapon exports between 2018 and 2022, and Israeli arms played a pivotal role in Azerbaijan's military successes in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War.

The two countries also cooperate on intelligence and security matters, with Baku providing Israel with a strategic location to conduct reconnaissance and intelligence activities against its arch-enemy, Iran. Azerbaijan has allowed Mossad to establish an advanced base of operations on its territory and has made its airports available for potential Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

The relationship between Azerbaijan and Israel carries risks for both countries. For Azerbaijan, a secular country with a Shia majority, improving ties with Israel risks alienating its other strategic partners, Turkey and Iran, and damaging its standing in the Islamic world. For Israel, the partnership provides an opportunity to contain and monitor Iran, but it also exposes it to criticism for cooperating with a country with a poor human rights record.

Despite these risks, the relationship between Azerbaijan and Israel continues to strengthen, driven by their shared interest in countering Iranian influence in the region.

Azerbaijan's stance on Nagorno-Karabakh

• Historical Context: The Nagorno-Karabakh region, established as the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast by the Soviet Union in 1923, has a majority ethnic Armenian population. However, throughout the Soviet period, Armenians in the region faced discrimination and suppression of their cultural identity by Soviet Azerbaijani authorities.
• Declaration of Independence: Amid the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the region's legislature declared its intention to join the Republic of Armenia, leading to armed conflict between the two republics.
• First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988-1994): The conflict escalated into a full-scale war, resulting in approximately 30,000 casualties and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people. Armenia gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh and occupied 20% of Azerbaijan's territory.
• Ceasefire and Ongoing Tensions: A Russian-brokered ceasefire, known as the Bishkek Protocol, was signed in 1994, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh de facto independent but heavily reliant on Armenia. Intermittent clashes and violations of the ceasefire have occurred since then, with Azerbaijan seeking to reclaim the region.
• Second Nagorno-Karabakh War (2020): Heavy fighting broke out along the Azerbaijan-Nagorno-Karabakh border in September 2020, resulting in thousands of casualties. Despite mediation attempts by Russia, France, and the US, a ceasefire was only reached after Azerbaijan made significant territorial gains, including capturing one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh.
• Dissolution of Nagorno-Karabakh: Faced with Azerbaijani rule, almost the entire population of Nagorno-Karabakh fled to Armenia. In January 2024, the ethnic Armenian enclave was officially dissolved, and Azerbaijan began the process of "reintegrating" the region and its remaining population.
• Current Situation: Azerbaijan plans to integrate the region into its territory and has offered economic development. However, there are concerns about the treatment of ethnic Armenians, with Azerbaijan's history of human rights abuses and a lack of rights for ethnic minorities. The future of the region remains uncertain, with ongoing border tensions and a fragile peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan's ethnic ties with Iran

Azerbaijan and Iran share a large ethnic overlap, with Azerbaijani Turks comprising the largest ethnic minority in Iran. Iranian Azerbaijanis are Iranians of Azerbaijani ethnicity, with most being of Iranian descent and native to the Iranian Azerbaijan region. They are primarily found in the Iranian provinces of East Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Zanjan, and West Azerbaijan, with smaller populations in other provinces.

Iranian Azerbaijanis are bilingual, speaking both Azerbaijani and Persian, and are predominantly Shia Muslims. They are well-integrated into Iranian society, with notable representation in politics, the military, and intellectual circles. While there have been instances of separatist sentiment, the majority of Iranian Azerbaijanis do not display separatist tendencies, instead seeking greater linguistic rights.

The Republic of Azerbaijan and Iran share a common history, with the territory of present-day Azerbaijan having been a part of various Iranian/Persian empires throughout history. The two nations have strong historical and cultural connections, with a shared Shia Muslim majority and similar ethnic makeup. However, political differences and divergent alliances have created tensions between the two countries.

Azerbaijan's stance on Iran's Islamic Revolution

Azerbaijan and Iran share a lot of similarities in terms of history, religion, and culture. Both countries are majority Shia Muslim nations, with Iran and Azerbaijan having the highest and second-highest Shia population percentages in the world, respectively. They also share a border and approximately 618 kilometres of land borders.

However, the two countries have had a tumultuous relationship since Azerbaijan's independence in 1991. The Islamic Republic of Iran has been hostile towards Baku, consistently acting to undermine its security and independence. Iran supported Armenia in its first war with Azerbaijan, which resulted in Armenia occupying a sixth of Azerbaijan's legal territory and the expulsion of close to a million Azerbaijanis from their homes.

Iran's hostility is partly due to its perception that an independent Azerbaijan could inspire its own ethnic Azerbaijani community to seek greater rights and possibly unification with the Republic of Azerbaijan. This fear of secessionism within its borders has guided much of Iran's foreign policy towards its northern neighbour.

Additionally, while Azerbaijan is increasingly pro-Western aligned, allied with Israel, Turkey, and the United States, Iran is largely pro-Russian and pro-Chinese aligned due to its hostility towards the US. This political divergence has further strained relations between the two countries.

Despite their shared religion, Azerbaijan has been sceptical of Iran's theocratic government, instead looking to Turkey as a strategic partner. Iran, on the other hand, has sought to bring Azerbaijan into its political orbit and spread its Islamic Revolution, spending millions of dollars on propagating Islamic values and ideas of Islamic statehood in the Republic of Azerbaijan. However, these attempts have not been very successful due to the erosion of Islamic bases in Azerbaijani society during the Soviet era.

In recent years, relations between the two countries have been characterised by mutual accusations of sponsoring terrorist activities and plotting attacks against each other's embassies. In 2012, Azerbaijan thwarted an Iranian plot to kill the US Ambassador and attack a Jewish school in Baku. More recently, in 2023, a gunman attacked the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran, leading to the suspension of diplomatic operations at the facility.

Overall, while the two countries share many cultural and religious similarities, their political differences and mutual suspicions have led to a strained relationship, with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev describing relations between the two countries as "at the lowest level ever".

Azerbaijan's relationship with Turkey

Azerbaijan and Turkey have strong ethnic, cultural, and historic ties, with their relationship often described as "two states, one nation". Turkey was the first country to recognise Azerbaijan's independence in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the two countries have since developed robust economic links. Turkey is the main conduit for Azerbaijan's oil and gas exports, and Azerbaijan has become a major investor in Turkey.

Turkey has also supported Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is within Azerbaijan but controlled by Armenia-backed separatists. Turkey has no diplomatic relations with Armenia, and it sealed its border with the country in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan. In 2009, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made the establishment of formal ties with Armenia conditional on its withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey has also trained Azerbaijani officers for decades and is a significant supplier of military equipment to the country.

Turkey's support for Azerbaijan is part of its regional and global aspirations, and its increasing use of "gunboat diplomacy" to resolve disputes. However, Azerbaijan is cautious about the extent of Turkey's involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, as it does not want to anger Russia, which is an ally of Armenia and maintains a military base in the country.

Frequently asked questions