The Democratic Process In Afghanistan: Exploring Elections And Their Impact

Afghanistan has held elections in the past, including presidential elections in 2019. However, the country's electoral process has been fraught with challenges and allegations of fraud and mismanagement. The Taliban, which took control of the country in August 2021, has dissolved the election commission, raising questions about the possibility of future elections. The Taliban has not ruled out holding elections but has not committed to them either, stating that the issue will be determined by a future constitution.

The Taliban's stance on elections

However, in 2021, a top Taliban spokesman said the group was not ruling out holding elections as it moved to establish a permanent government based on Islamic law, or Shariah. Suhail Shaheen, the top spokesman for the Taliban's political office in Doha, Qatar, said the issue would be determined by a future constitution.

Despite this, in December 2021, the Taliban dissolved Afghanistan's election commission, claiming there was "no need" for it to exist. This decision was criticised by a senior politician in the previous regime, who said it showed the Taliban "does not believe in democracy".

In the past, the Taliban have also disrupted elections by intimidating voters and carrying out attacks. In 2019, for example, a suicide bomber attacked the campaign rally of President Ashraf Ghani, killing 26 people and wounding 42. The Taliban also carried out another suicide bomb attack near the US Embassy and the Afghan Defense Ministry, killing 22 people and wounding around 38.

On election day in 2019, several people headed to cast their vote despite direct threats from the Taliban. Voter turnout was less than 20%, with only around 1.6 million people voting out of 9.7 million registered voters.

The Taliban's ability to disrupt elections is limited by their inability to operate in major population centres and the willingness of some field commanders to refrain from targeting civilians. However, their slow start-up from winter and the occurrence of the poppy harvest make it difficult for them to increase the tempo of attacks in April, when elections are often held.

While the Taliban have not held any national-level elections, there have been reports of local-level elections for neighbourhood representatives in Kabul. These elections were held via a show of hands in mosques, with the Taliban authorities providing ballot boxes that were ultimately not used.

Voter turnout and security

Afghanistan's elections have been marred by security issues and low voter turnout. The Taliban, who regard the Afghan government as a US puppet, have violently disrupted elections and discouraged voters from participating. The group has attacked political rallies, election workers, and voters, and has also threatened to cut off the fingers of those who vote.

Security Issues

The Taliban have posed a significant threat to the security of Afghanistan's elections. In the 2019 presidential election, the Taliban carried out attacks to disrupt the campaign, including a suicide bombing at a rally for President Ashraf Ghani, which killed 26 people and wounded 42 others. The group also warned voters in remote areas to boycott the election, threatening to burn down their villages if they participated.

The presence of the Taliban has had a detrimental impact on voter turnout, with many Afghans fearing for their safety. In addition to direct threats and attacks, the Taliban's control of large portions of the countryside has made it difficult for voters to access polling stations.

Voter Turnout

Voter turnout in Afghanistan's elections has been consistently low, with each election seeing a decline in participation. The 2019 presidential election, for example, saw a turnout of less than 20%, with only around 1.6 million people voting out of 9.7 million registered voters. This was the lowest turnout in Afghanistan's history and among the lowest for any national election worldwide.

The low turnout has been attributed to various factors, including security concerns, voter apathy, and frustration with politicians. The use of a new biometric identification system in the 2019 election may have also contributed to the low numbers, as some voters were unable to cast their ballots due to technical issues.

Impact on Legitimacy

The low voter turnout and security issues have raised questions about the legitimacy of Afghanistan's elections. The Afghan government has been criticized for its handling of the electoral process, with allegations of mismanagement, abuse, and fraud. The Independent Election Commission (IEC), responsible for administering the elections, has been characterized by weak leadership, unqualified staff, and a lack of accountability.

The international community, particularly the US, has invested significant resources in supporting Afghanistan's electoral process, but the country's electoral institutions remain weak. The lack of confidence in the elections undermines the legitimacy of the Afghan government and contributes to political instability.

The role of the US in Afghanistan's elections

Afghanistan has held democratic elections throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, but the country's electoral institutions have varied as changes in the political regime have disrupted political continuity. The US has played a significant role in Afghanistan's elections, especially since the fall of the Taliban in 2001.

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) has invested at least $620 million in supporting Afghanistan's electoral process since 2001, including seven separate elections. The goal has been to help Afghanistan build its capacity to prepare for, observe, administer, and adjudicate elections. However, the return on this investment has been poor, with Afghan electoral stakeholders seemingly no closer to credibly preparing for, administering, and resolving disputes for elections than they were in 2004.

The US has faced serious challenges in its efforts to support elections in Afghanistan. The country is a nascent democracy with an ongoing violent insurgency, an unverifiable number of eligible voters (many of whom are illiterate), and a challenging terrain. Additionally, corruption is pervasive, the rule of law is weak, and impunity for election-related violence and fraud is common.

Despite these challenges, the US has made significant efforts to support Afghanistan's elections and promote democracy in the country. Here are some key ways in which the US has played a role in Afghanistan's elections:

• The US has provided financial support and technical assistance to Afghanistan's electoral commissions and other relevant bodies.
• It has helped establish independent electoral commissions and an electoral complaints commission to administer and oversee the elections.
• The US has supported domestic election observers and provided training to election officials and administrators.
• It has facilitated the creation of a multi-party legislature and supported the drafting of a new constitution, which included provisions for a free press and guaranteed women's rights.
• The US has also supported the registration of voters and provided constitutional and legal experts to work with committees drafting the constitution and new laws.
• In the security sector, the US has trained Afghan security forces and worked to improve security ahead of elections, although concerns about security have often been a challenge for elections.
• Additionally, the US has supported programs to improve human rights in Afghanistan, particularly for women, girls, and minority communities.
• Finally, the US has engaged in diplomatic efforts to mediate disputes arising from elections, such as the 2019 presidential election, and has pushed for the formation of inclusive governments.

Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission

The IEC was responsible for administering and supervising elections and referendums under the Constitution of Afghanistan. It sought to strengthen Afghanistan's democracy by conducting free and fair elections, striving for quality and accountability in delivering electoral services, and promoting Afghans' trust and confidence in the electoral process.

The IEC faced several challenges, including weak leadership, unqualified staff, minimal accountability for fraud and malpractice, and a structure poorly suited for decision-making. It was often criticized for its ineffectiveness and inability to ensure transparent and credible elections.

In 2019, the IEC played a crucial role in Afghanistan's presidential election, declaring Ashraf Ghani the winner with 50.6% of the vote. However, the result was disputed by Abdullah Abdullah, who rejected the outcome and attempted to form a parallel government. This dispute reflected the broader challenges faced by the IEC in ensuring fair and widely accepted election results in Afghanistan.

The IEC's work was also impacted by security concerns and Taliban attacks. In March 2014, the IEC's headquarters were attacked by the Taliban, highlighting the challenges of conducting elections in a country with an ongoing insurgency and security threats.

The future of Afghanistan's elections

Afghanistan's future elections are uncertain, given the country's recent political upheaval and the Taliban's takeover in August 2021. The Taliban dissolved the country's election commission in December 2021, indicating a departure from democratic processes and a return to authoritarian rule.

Past Elections in Afghanistan

Afghanistan has held several elections since the fall of the Taliban government in 2001, including presidential and parliamentary elections. The most recent presidential election was held in September 2019, which saw the re-election of Ashraf Ghani. However, the election was marred by low voter turnout, security threats, and allegations of mismanagement and abuse.

Challenges to Elections in Afghanistan

Holding credible elections in Afghanistan has always been challenging due to security concerns, a weak electoral commission, fraud, and a lack of public confidence in the process. The international community, particularly the United States, has invested significant resources in supporting Afghanistan's electoral process, but the results have been disappointing.

The Taliban's Stance on Elections

During their previous rule from 1996 to 2001, the Taliban did not hold any elections, and they have a history of disrupting elections through violence and attacks on election workers and rallies. However, in 2021, a top Taliban spokesman suggested that the group was not ruling out holding elections, stating that it would be determined by a future constitution based on Islamic law, or Shariah.

Prospects for Future Elections

Way Forward

To improve the prospects for credible elections in Afghanistan, there is a need for continuous engagement and support from the international community, focusing on building strong electoral institutions, improving security, addressing fraud, and enhancing transparency in the electoral process. However, the Taliban's commitment to these reforms and their willingness to embrace democratic principles remain to be seen.

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