The Dragon's Reach: China's Strategic Interests In Afghanistan

Afghanistan is notoriously difficult to conquer and govern. The country has earned the nickname Graveyard of Empires due to its history of successfully resisting foreign occupation and control. While China has historically occupied parts of Afghanistan, it has never been able to establish lasting control over the entire country.

Today, China's primary interest in Afghanistan is stability. Chaos in Afghanistan could lead to the rise of Islamic fundamentalism, which threatens domestic security in China, particularly in the Xinjiang region. With the withdrawal of US troops, China is concerned about the potential power vacuum and the resurgence of violence. China seeks to protect its interests in the region and prevent Afghanistan from becoming a base for Uyghur separatists and other militant groups.

While China has economic interests in Afghanistan, particularly in exploiting its mineral deposits and integrating it into the Belt and Road Initiative, it remains to be seen if China can successfully navigate the complex political and security challenges that have hindered other foreign powers in the past.

China's historical posture towards Afghanistan

China's first notable involvement in Afghanistan was in the 1980s when it collaborated with the United States, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia to arm the Afghan mujahideen fighting against the Soviet Union. At the time, China's relationship with the Soviets had soured due to suspicions about Moscow's intentions as it drew closer to China's neighbours.

In the following decades, China maintained a relatively low profile in Afghanistan, focusing primarily on economic and diplomatic relations. However, the rise of the Taliban in the 1990s presented a new challenge for China. The Taliban's association with al-Qaeda and their questionable relationship with Uyghur militants led Chinese officials to view them negatively. China evacuated its embassy in 1993 and never established official relations with the Taliban regime during their rule from 1996 onwards.

Despite its reservations, China has engaged with the Taliban in recent years due to the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan and the group's growing influence. China hosted secret talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government in 2015 and has since intensified its diplomatic efforts, seeking to balance its relations with both the Taliban and the Afghan government.

China's primary interests in Afghanistan revolve around security and economic opportunities. It seeks a stable Afghanistan, particularly along its shared border, and has made it clear that international recognition and investment from China are contingent on the Taliban denying any haven to exiles from Xinjiang, especially Uyghurs. Additionally, China is attracted to Afghanistan's abundant natural resources, including its untapped mineral deposits valued at over $1 trillion.

In summary, China's historical posture towards Afghanistan has been shaped by its security concerns, diplomatic calculations, and economic interests. The country has navigated complex relationships and shifting power dynamics in the region while pursuing its strategic objectives.

China's overall view of the US presence in Afghanistan

On the positive side, the Chinese have viewed America's wars since 9/11 as a "god-sent" "window of strategic opportunity" that gave Beijing a decade to build its strength while Washington was distracted, bogged down, and spending trillions of dollars in Afghanistan and Iraq. While the US needed China's nominal support for its war on terror, China played up the terrorist threats in Xinjiang, using the global war on terror to justify its policy in the Uyghur region.

China has long criticized the American presence in Afghanistan and the prospect of a destabilizing withdrawal. The foreign policy community in China remains deeply skeptical about US intentions in the region as it withdraws its troops and harbors serious concerns about the prospect of chaos and instability along its western frontier. China has a fundamental interest in stability in Afghanistan, as chaos in the country, from Beijing's perspective, stokes Islamic fundamentalism that threatens domestic security in China, particularly in Xinjiang.

China's primary concern with Afghanistan lies in its security situation and in instability and radicalization spilling over into China. Beijing has consistently supported political inclusiveness and reconciliation between Kabul and the Taliban. China's relationships with both parties have given it a special role in negotiations between the two sides. Beijing takes pride in its relative neutrality and proudly proclaims that it has never invaded Afghanistan.

China's reaction to the US withdrawal is complicated. In the short term, Beijing is concerned that without the US military, Afghanistan will soon descend into chaos and will inevitably serve as a haven for Islamic extremism. But in the long run, the Chinese policy community remains deeply skeptical of US intentions, and it assumes the US will retain and use its influence in Afghanistan to advance its interests. Moreover, Beijing fears that the US—freed from its on-the-ground military commitment in Afghanistan—will now use the country to undermine China's regional position and key interests.

China's role in Afghanistan beyond the peace deal

Economic Interests: China has significant economic interests in Afghanistan, particularly regarding natural resources. Chinese companies have secured contracts to extract copper and drill for oil in Afghanistan, estimated to be worth billions of dollars. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is also a crucial component of China's economic strategy in the region, with Afghanistan potentially serving as a corridor for the "March West" policy. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) could be expanded to include Afghanistan, connecting Central Asian republics under Chinese influence.

Security Concerns: China is concerned about the potential security vacuum that may arise following the US withdrawal. It worries about Afghan-based terrorist groups, particularly Uyghur secessionist groups from Xinjiang, exploiting the instability and crossing the border into China. China has taken steps to counter this threat, such as building a military base in Tajikistan near the Wakhan Corridor and offering to build key highway networks for the Taliban to reduce violence.

Diplomatic Engagement: China has been actively involved in diplomatic efforts to bring peace to Afghanistan. It has proposed setting up a "peace and reconciliation forum" involving Afghanistan, Pakistan, China, and the Taliban. China also participates in various multilateral platforms, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Troika-plus grouping, to address regional security challenges.

Military Presence: While China denies seeking overseas military bases, there are reports of its involvement in building a base for the Afghan Armed Forces near Gaz Khan village in Wakhan District. Additionally, China has provided military training and support to Afghanistan, including helping to establish a mountain brigade in the north to counter terrorism and drug trafficking.

Regional Influence: China's partnership with Russia and Iran will shape Afghanistan's future. The three countries share a common interest in countering US influence in the region and could form a triangular partnership to compete strategically with the US. China's relationship with Pakistan is also crucial, as it leverages its influence over Islamabad to further its goals in Afghanistan.

Governance and Ideology: China's growing influence may impact Afghanistan's governance style. There are concerns that Afghanistan could adopt a more hierarchical and autocratic system, similar to China's, which the Taliban does not oppose. Additionally, China's crackdown on Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang, justified by concerns about separatism and unrest, has been internationally condemned as cultural genocide.

China's record in Pakistan

China and Pakistan have a strong and long-standing relationship, with formal relations established in 1950. Pakistan was among the first countries to recognise the People's Republic of China, and the two nations have since enjoyed extremely cordial relations for over half a century.

China has provided economic, technical, and military assistance to Pakistan, and both sides regard each other as close strategic allies. China has become Pakistan's largest supplier of armaments and third-largest trading partner overall.

In recent years, China has moved forward with an agreement to cooperate in improving the Pakistani civil nuclear power sector, and has invested in Pakistan's Gwadar Deep Sea Port, which is strategically located at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz.

However, China's record in Pakistan is not without its challenges. In recent months, there have been at least four attacks on Chinese interests in Pakistan, including an apparent assassination attempt on China's ambassador. These attacks have been perpetrated by both separatist groups and militant Islamists, indicating that China is increasingly in the crosshairs of a broader Jihadist campaign.

Despite these security concerns, China and Pakistan remain close partners, with deepening economic and military ties. China has delivered warships and fighter jets to Pakistan, and the two nations have conducted joint military exercises to safeguard assets and trade routes.

In summary, China's record in Pakistan is characterised by strong diplomatic, economic, and military ties, but it is not without challenges, particularly regarding security and the threat of attacks on Chinese interests.

China's stance on sanctions against Afghanistan

China has called for an end to sanctions against Afghanistan, urging the World Bank, IMF, and other countries to release Afghan government accounts and provide economic aid to the country. China's foreign minister, Wang Yi, has stated that economic sanctions on Afghanistan "must end", and that the freezing of the country's foreign exchange reserves is unjust. He asserts that these reserves are national assets that should be used by the Afghan people and not as a bargaining chip to exert political pressure.

China has also urged the Taliban to improve the inclusiveness and predictability of its governance, and it has called on the international community to support Afghanistan's fight against terrorism, separatism, and extremism. Additionally, China has expressed its willingness to facilitate solutions to Afghanistan's humanitarian and refugee issues and to support the country's efforts against narcotics.

China's diplomatic position on sanctions against Afghanistan is characterized by its call for pragmatic engagement rather than rigid sanctions, with an emphasis on the importance of dialogue. China has proposed timely adjustments to sanctions to avoid negative impacts on the Afghan population and has advocated for exemptions for the travel of select Taliban officials to facilitate meaningful dialogue.

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