The Resurgence Of Afghanistan's Military Might: A Critical Analysis

Afghanistan's military strength has fluctuated over the years, with the country's armed forces disbanding and re-forming multiple times since the Soviet-Afghan War (1979-1989). In 2024, Afghanistan is ranked 115 out of 145 countries in the annual GFP review, with a Power Index score of 2.2715.

The Afghan Armed Forces, also referred to as the Islamic Emirate Armed Forces, is the military of Afghanistan and has been commanded by the Taliban government from 1997 to 2001 and since August 2021. According to Afghanistan's Ministry of Defense, its total manpower is 170,000.

In February 2022, the Taliban announced plans to build a 110,000-strong army for Afghanistan, with 10,000 soldiers already graduating from military training. The Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan and the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces have raised questions about the country's military capabilities and the potential for it to become a safe haven for international terrorists.

The Taliban's military strength

Manpower and Recruitment:

The Taliban is known for its ability to recruit and mobilize a large number of fighters. In February 2022, the acting defense minister of Afghanistan's Taliban government, Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, announced plans to build a 110,000-strong army. According to Yaqoob, the registration for the new army had reached almost 80,000, and 10,000 soldiers had already graduated from military training. The Taliban's military strength is further bolstered by the conscription of children, with reports indicating that the group made widespread use of child soldiers in the 1990s.

Weapons and Equipment:

The Taliban has acquired a significant amount of weapons and equipment, especially after the fall of Kabul and the collapse of the Afghan National Army in 2021. They seized US-made firearms, vehicles, and other military equipment, including Humvees, M4 and M16 rifles, night-vision goggles, body armor, and shoulder-mounted grenade launchers. Additionally, the Taliban has a history of receiving weapons supplies from various countries, such as the US, Egypt, Turkey, the UK, and China.

Air Force:

The Taliban established a small air force from 1996 to 2001 and re-established it after the fall of Kabul in 2021. They acquired and repaired various aircraft, including UH-60 Black Hawks, Mil Mi-24s, Mil Mi-8s/Mil Mi-17s, A-29 Super Tucanos, Cessna 208s, and C-130 Hercules. However, maintaining and crewing these aircraft has been a challenge for the Taliban, and they have faced issues meeting the demands of commanders on the ground.

Tanks and Armored Vehicles:

During the 1990s, the Taliban maintained an arsenal of 400 T-54/55 and T-62 tanks and over 200 armored personnel carriers. After the fall of Kabul in 2021, they captured additional vehicles and equipment from the defeated Afghan National Army.

Strategy and Tactics:

The Taliban's military strategy has been characterized by its ability to adapt and exploit weaknesses. They have focused their attacks on regional capitals and key border crossings, funneling off customs revenue and disrupting government control. Additionally, they have targeted killings of key officials, human rights activists, and journalists. The Taliban's tactics include a combination of guerrilla warfare, the use of suicide bombers, and exploiting local knowledge and terrain advantages.

Foreign Support:

The Taliban has received significant foreign support, particularly from Pakistan. Pakistan's intelligence service, the ISI, has been accused of supporting and directing the Taliban strategically and tactically. Other countries, such as China, Egypt, Turkey, the UK, and Switzerland, have also provided weapons and equipment to the Taliban in the past.

Challenges and Limitations:

One of the main challenges faced by the Taliban is the diverse and fragmented nature of their organization. Analysts argue that the Taliban is more of a coalition of independent groups rather than a monolithic entity. This diversity can create internal tensions and affect their ability to present a unified front. Additionally, the Taliban has faced challenges in governing the areas they control and maintaining popular support, especially in urban areas.

In conclusion, the Taliban's military strength lies in its ability to recruit and mobilize fighters, acquire weapons and equipment, adapt its strategies and tactics, and exploit foreign support. However, the group also faces limitations due to its diverse and fragmented nature, and the challenge of governing and maintaining popular support.

The US's role in Afghanistan

In response to the attacks, the US, alongside NATO and other allies, invaded Afghanistan in 2001, aiming to dismantle al-Qaeda and remove the Taliban government, which had provided sanctuary for bin Laden. The invasion was also driven by a desire to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for international terrorists. This marked the beginning of the US's longest war.

The US-led invasion toppled the Taliban government, and the group's leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar, fled. However, bin Laden evaded capture, and the US shifted its military focus to Iraq. Despite this, the US maintained a presence in Afghanistan, working with the Afghan government and security forces to prevent a Taliban resurgence and support counterterrorism efforts.

In 2011, the US killed bin Laden in Pakistan, achieving a key objective of its invasion. However, the war in Afghanistan continued, with the US and its allies training and equipping Afghan security forces to fight the Taliban and maintain stability. The US also provided significant financial support, with Congress appropriating over $38 billion in humanitarian and reconstruction assistance from 2001 to 2009.

In 2020, the US and the Taliban signed the Doha Agreement, which outlined a plan for the withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan. This agreement ultimately led to the fall of Kabul and the return of the Taliban to power in 2021.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has been chaotic and controversial. While some argue that the US achieved its primary counterterrorism objectives, others believe the war was a failure, with Afghanistan once again under Taliban rule and facing a potential humanitarian and economic catastrophe. The US has since shifted to a position of pragmatic engagement with Afghanistan, providing humanitarian aid and targeted assistance while coordinating with allies and partners.

The Afghan National Defence and Security Forces

The ANA includes the Afghan Border Force, Afghan Air Force, Afghan Territorial Army, and Afghan National Civil Order Force. The ANP includes the Afghan Local Police, Afghan Uniformed Police, Public Security Police, Afghan Border Police, and Afghan Public Protection Force. The NDS is the state intelligence and security service and reports directly to the Office of the President.

The ANDSF has developed into a collection of professional institutions that are highly respected and committed to their mission. However, they face challenges in key areas of capacity, such as logistics, air power, and intelligence. They are also heavily dependent on U.S. financial and operational assistance, as well as support from NATO.

The ANDSF plays a crucial role in safeguarding the Afghan state, preventing the re-emergence of terror safe havens, and ensuring the Taliban complies with the terms of peace agreements. With the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces, the ANDSF faces questions about its potential restructuring and reorganization, as well as its role in the new political settlement with the Taliban.

The future of the ANDSF is dependent on factors such as U.S.-NATO financial and technical-military support, the evolution of political leadership in Kabul, qualified and unifying military leadership, and securing a political settlement with the Taliban.

The International Security Assistance Force

ISAF's primary goal was to train the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and assist Afghanistan in rebuilding key government institutions. It was also to enable the Afghan government to provide effective security across the country.

ISAF was one of the largest coalitions in history and is NATO's most challenging mission to date. At its peak, the force was more than 130,000 strong, with troops from 51 NATO and partner nations.

ISAF was initially deployed to provide security in and around the capital, Kabul, but its presence was gradually expanded to cover the whole country by the second half of 2006. As ISAF expanded into the east and south, its troops became increasingly engaged in fighting a growing insurgency in 2007 and 2008.

In 2009, a new counter-insurgency was launched and 40,000 extra troops were deployed. ISAF assisted the Afghan National Security Forces in security operations throughout the country, helping to reduce the capability of the insurgency.

An important priority for ISAF was to increase the capacity and capabilities of the Afghan forces. This became the main focus of the mission from 2011 onwards, as responsibility for security was progressively transitioned to Afghan lead. ISAF shifted from a combat-centric role to training, advising and assisting.

ISAF also contributed to reconstruction and development in Afghanistan through multinational Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs). PRTs helped the Afghan authorities strengthen the institutions required to progressively establish good governance and the rule of law, as well as to promote human rights.

In 2011, a gradual transition to full Afghan security responsibility was launched. This process was completed on schedule in December 2014, when ISAF's mission ended and Afghan forces assumed full security responsibility for their country.

A new, smaller non-combat mission ("Resolute Support") was launched on 1 January 2015 to provide further training, advice and assistance to the Afghan security forces and institutions.

The Resolute Support Mission

The objective of the mission was to provide training, advice and assistance for Afghan security forces and institutions in their conflict with extremist groups such as the Taliban, the Haqqani network, and ISIS-K. RSM consisted of approximately 17,000 personnel from NATO and partner nations in Afghanistan. The leader of the operation was identical with the commander of United States Forces- Afghanistan.

Forces were distributed between the central hub at Kabul and Bagram Airfield and four supporting spokes. The spokes were formed by Train Advise Assist Commands (TAACs), which directly supported four of the six Afghan National Army Corps. Train Advise Assist Command - Capital replaced the former Regional Command Capital. TAAC East assisted the 201st Corps from FOB Gamberi in Laghman, TAAC South assisted the 205th Corps from Kandahar International Airport, TAAC West assisted the 207th Corps in Herat and TAAC North covered the 209th Corps from Mazar-i-Sharif.

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