The Elusive Quest For Stability: Afghanistan's Political Landscape

Afghanistan has been deemed one of the world's most unstable countries, with a score of -2.55 points on the Political Stability Index in 2022. The country has been beset by conflicts, undermined political stability, economic and security decline, and a divided government since the 2014 elections.

In August 2021, the Taliban re-established their rule over Afghanistan following the withdrawal of US and NATO troops. The swift and resistance-free takeover was surprising to many, but it can be attributed to the politically unstable structure of the country, with many tribal leaders and municipal representatives feeling disenfranchised by the central government.

The Taliban established a new political system, referring to Afghanistan as an Islamic Emirate (IEA). However, the country remains isolated on the international stage, with no nation officially recognising the IEA. The Taliban government has been criticised for restricting women's rights, prohibiting girls from pursuing secondary and higher education, and restricting the operations of media and local and international non-governmental groups.

Afghanistan's long-term growth prospects rely on a shift from reliance on international aid to a private sector-led economy that capitalises on the country's inherent strengths, particularly in the agricultural and extractive sectors.

The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan in 2021

In February 2020, the US and the Taliban signed the Doha Agreement, which set a timeline for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. In return, the Taliban pledged to prevent territory under its control from being used by terrorist groups and to enter negotiations with the Afghan government. However, the Taliban quickly resumed attacks on Afghan security forces and civilians, and direct talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban made little progress.

In April 2021, US President Joe Biden announced that US military forces would leave Afghanistan by September 2021. The Taliban ramped up their offensive, capturing several border crossings and threatening government-controlled urban areas. On August 6, 2021, the Taliban captured the capital of southern Nimruz Province, the first provincial capital to fall. Within days, the Taliban captured more than ten other capitals, including Mazar-i-Sharif in the north and Jalalabad in the east.

On August 15, 2021, Taliban fighters entered the Afghan capital of Kabul, and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country. The Taliban announced that they had entered the presidential palace, taken control of Kabul, and were establishing checkpoints to maintain security. The speed of the Taliban's territorial gains and the collapse of the Afghan government surprised US officials and allies.

Following the Taliban takeover, the Biden administration authorized the deployment of additional troops to assist with the evacuation of US and allied personnel, as well as Afghans who worked with the US. On August 26, 2021, two suicide bombings outside the Kabul airport killed at least 169 Afghans and 13 US troops. ISIS-K claimed responsibility for the attacks.

The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan has had significant consequences for the country and its people. The Taliban have imposed strict restrictions on the rights of women and girls, limiting their access to education, employment, and public life. They have also cracked down on freedom of expression and assembly, targeting journalists and human rights activists. The country is facing a severe humanitarian crisis, with millions of people in need of assistance. The economy is on the verge of collapse, with sanctions and the termination of development aid crippling the country's financial system.

The international community has not recognized the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan due to concerns over their human rights record and commitment to counterterrorism. The Taliban's refusal to lift restrictions on women and girls has further isolated them from the international community. The future of Afghanistan remains uncertain, with the country facing political instability, economic stagnation, and a worsening humanitarian crisis.

The role of the international community

The international community has played a significant role in Afghanistan's political landscape over the past two decades. In the immediate aftermath of the 2001 Bonn Agreement, foreign interveners focused on establishing central ministries and institutions rather than addressing local politics. They also assisted in drafting Afghanistan's 2004 constitution, which took a vague approach to key questions of subnational governance.

The international community's efforts to strengthen subnational governance in Afghanistan were marked by several persistent shortcomings. Assistance programs often aimed to "build trust" and "foster dialogue" between the state and citizens, but they failed to acknowledge that the barriers to communication were often political, not technical. Additionally, these programs aimed to build the capacity of district and provincial councils, but these efforts were hindered by the lack of clear authorities or roles for these bodies.

Donor programs also emphasized cultivating skills relevant to being a good aid recipient rather than navigating the complex local political landscape. Meaningful decentralization of authority and power away from Kabul could have yielded more promising governance arrangements, but this was not adequately addressed by donor engagement.

The counterinsurgency strategy of Western policymakers framed the conflict as a struggle for the support of the population between the Taliban and the Afghan government. To strengthen the Afghan government's position, Western policymakers focused more on local governance initiatives. However, the huge injection of external money undermined accountability between the state and citizens, and the deluge of Western-led "quick impact" projects drew attention away from strengthening the capacity of line ministries to deliver local services in the long term.

Despite these shortcomings, the international community has continued to engage with Afghanistan, recognizing the importance of a stable and secure country in the region. NATO Allies and partner countries had military forces deployed in Afghanistan under a United Nations (UN) Security Council mandate. The primary objective was to ensure that the country would not become a safe haven for international terrorists following the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

In recent years, there has been a push for a more inclusive peace process in Afghanistan, with Taliban leaders, Afghan government representatives, and international experts examining ways to achieve this. The US and its allies have leverage over key actors and can bring diplomatic and political authority to bear to cajole, persuade, and engage all parties. However, the challenge of finding a political solution is compounded by competing policy imperatives and the complex and dynamic nature of the conflict.

The US and the Taliban signed an agreement in February 2020 on the withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan, which was completed in August 2021. This was followed by the collapse of the Afghan government and the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces. The international community's focus shifted to ensuring the safe departure of personnel and addressing the humanitarian crisis.

The World Bank, in coordination with the international community and development partners, is providing support to the Afghan people, particularly in the areas of health, education, and livelihoods. However, the future of Afghanistan remains uncertain, with economic stagnation and a lack of sustainable economic growth prospects.

The state of Afghanistan's economy

Afghanistan's economy is in a fragile state, with the country facing a multitude of economic challenges. The country's GDP is estimated to have dropped by 20% following the Taliban's return to power in 2021. However, there are some signs of recovery, with the economy showing signs of stabilisation and a modest revival in 2023.

Economic Challenges

Afghanistan's economy faces several challenges, including:

• Lack of international recognition and sanctions: The Taliban's de facto government is not recognised by the international community, impacting their ability to access international markets and financial systems.
• Loss of foreign aid: The country has lost access to significant amounts of foreign aid, which previously constituted a large portion of its economy.
• Restrictions on women: The Taliban's restrictions on women's education and employment have limited their ability to contribute to the economy and have also reduced the country's attractiveness to foreign investors.
• Opium ban: The Taliban's ban on opium cultivation has resulted in a significant loss of income for rural households, estimated at around $1 billion per year.
• Brain drain: The country is experiencing a "brain drain", with educated women and men leaving the country due to a lack of opportunities and restrictions imposed by the Taliban.
• Limited private sector: The private sector in Afghanistan is underdeveloped, with most economic activity centred around subsistence agriculture.
• Lack of infrastructure: The country lacks adequate infrastructure, including reliable access to electricity and water, which hinders economic growth.
• High unemployment: Afghanistan has an unemployment rate of over 23%, with limited job opportunities for its population.
• Poverty and food insecurity: A large proportion of the population lives below the poverty line, and the country faces widespread food insecurity, with many relying on humanitarian aid.

Signs of Recovery

Despite these challenges, there are some signs of recovery in Afghanistan's economy:

• Stable exchange rate: The country has maintained a relatively stable exchange rate, with the Afghani rising in value against the US dollar in 2023.
• Increasing exports: Afghanistan has seen an increase in exports, particularly in the agricultural sector, contributing to economic growth.
• Inflation control: Inflation has been kept relatively low, with a decline in the inflation rate from 5.2% in December 2022 to 3.6% in January 2023.
• Revenue collection: The Taliban government has improved revenue collection, reaching $2.2 billion or 15% of GDP in 2022.
• Basic service aid: The World Bank and other international organisations have provided critical support in areas such as health, education, food security, and water services.
• Private sector activity: There are some signs of private sector activity, with small businesses operating in the country and the Taliban planning major projects.
• Investment potential: Afghanistan has the potential to attract investment in its agricultural, extractive, and energy sectors, particularly from regional neighbours.

The impact on Afghan women

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 has had a devastating impact on Afghan women and girls, erasing 20 years of progress on women's rights. Women have been excluded from public life and face restrictions on their education, employment, healthcare, and freedom of movement.

Education

Since the Taliban takeover, girls have been banned from attending secondary school and women have been banned from tertiary education. This has affected women's ability to gain employment and improved their social and economic conditions. Before the Taliban takeover, 33% of girls were enrolled in primary schools, and female enrollment in secondary education had grown to 39%. Now, girls are worried about their future, and teachers are unsure if and when schools will reopen.

Employment

The Taliban have banned women from working in most jobs outside the home, with only female healthcare workers and teachers allowed to continue working. This has resulted in a loss of income for many families, as women were often the sole or primary wage earners. The Taliban have also banned women from working in NGO offices, further restricting their employment opportunities.

Healthcare

The Taliban's restrictions on women's education and employment have also impacted their access to healthcare. There is a shortage of female healthcare workers, and women are often not allowed to be treated by male doctors. Additionally, the financial crisis and lack of international aid have led to a lack of medical supplies and equipment, further deteriorating the quality of healthcare available to women.

Freedom of Movement

The Taliban have imposed strict dress codes and restrictions on women's freedom of movement. Women are required to wear a burqa and are not permitted to travel more than 75 km without a male chaperone. They are also banned from entering amusement parks, public baths, gyms, and sports clubs. These restrictions have isolated women and made them feel invisible and suffocated.

Mental Health

The loss of rights and freedoms has taken a toll on the mental health of Afghan women and girls. They report feelings of insecurity, trauma, fear, anxiety, hopelessness, insomnia, and a sense of loss and helplessness. The constant threat of violence and the dismantling of systems that assisted women facing gender-based violence have further exacerbated their mental health issues.

Overall Impact

The restrictions imposed by the Taliban have effectively erased two decades of progress on women's rights in Afghanistan. Women and girls are denied their fundamental rights and freedoms, including the rights to education, employment, health, freedom of movement, and freedom from fear and discrimination. They are unable to meet their basic needs and are living in prison-like conditions. The international community must take strong action to protect the rights of Afghan women and girls and provide the necessary support to improve their situation.

The future of Afghanistan's government

Afghanistan's future remains uncertain, with the country facing political instability, economic woes, and a humanitarian crisis. Here is an overview of the key issues and potential paths forward for the nation.

Political Stability

Afghanistan has a long history of political instability, with the country experiencing a debilitating array of conflicts and a divided government since the 2014 elections. The Taliban's takeover in 2021 further exacerbated the situation, with the group establishing a new political system as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA). The IEA's hardline Islamic ideology, lack of international recognition, and restrictions on civil rights and democratic norms have led to widespread criticism and concerns about the country's future.

Economic Challenges

Afghanistan's economy is in a state of crisis, with high inflation, a severe humanitarian crisis, and a lack of international recognition hindering progress. The country's heavy reliance on foreign aid and consumption-driven growth have left it vulnerable, and the Taliban's policies have done little to improve the situation. The World Bank predicts that Afghanistan's economic outlook will remain uncertain, with stagnation likely until at least 2025.

Security and Humanitarian Issues

The security situation in Afghanistan has improved under the Taliban, with a reduction in violent conflicts. However, the rise of extremist groups like IS-Khorasan (IS-K) and the Taliban's strict interpretation of Islamic law have led to human rights abuses and a deterioration of living conditions for religious and ethnic minorities. The country also faces a severe humanitarian crisis, with a lack of access to basic services, food insecurity, and a lack of educational opportunities, especially for women and girls.

Path Forward

For Afghanistan to achieve stability and sustainable growth, several key steps need to be taken:

• Reform and Restructure Political Institutions: Afghanistan needs to undertake significant reforms to restructure its political institutions and promote inclusive governance. This includes improving the electoral system, decentralizing administrative power, and balancing power across regions and the central government.
• Addressing Humanitarian Crisis: The international community must continue to provide humanitarian support to address the urgent needs of the Afghan people, including food insecurity, access to basic services, and protection of vulnerable groups.
• Economic Reforms: Afghanistan needs to shift from reliance on international aid to a more resilient, private sector-led economy. This includes developing the agricultural and extractive sectors, promoting irrigation infrastructure, land tenure security, research, and market access.
• Inclusive Governance: The Taliban must work towards establishing an inclusive government that represents the diverse ethnic and religious groups in the country. Power-sharing arrangements and the inclusion of previously excluded political actors can help build a more stable and representative government.
• International Cooperation: Regional and international cooperation are crucial for Afghanistan's future. Neighbouring countries can play a vital role in promoting economic development, trade, and stability. However, the Taliban must also demonstrate a commitment to addressing human rights concerns and inclusive governance to gain international recognition.

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