The Geography Of Afghanistan's Population: A Study Of Dispersion And Clustering

Afghanistan's population is a mix of both clustered and dispersed groups. Populations tend to cluster in the foothills and periphery of the rugged Hindu Kush mountain range, with smaller groups found in the country's interior valleys. The east is more densely settled, while the south is sparsely populated.

The country's population is around 43 million as of 2023, with a growth rate of 2.33% per year. Afghanistan is expected to reach 64.68 million by 2050 and 77.03 million by 2084.

Most Afghans live in rural areas, with only around 10% of the population living in the capital city, Kabul. The second-largest city is Kandahar, with less than 400,0000 people.

Population growth and demographics

Afghanistan's population is growing at a rate of 2.33% per year. The country is seeing negative net migration due to internal conflict, but its fertility rate of 4.56 births per woman still pushes the population up. The population is very young, with a median age of 18.4 years.

Afghanistan's population is around 41 million as of 2023. The nation is composed of a multi-ethnic and multilingual society, reflecting its location astride historic trade and invasion routes between Central Asia, South Asia, and Western Asia. The country is predominantly mountainous with plains in the north and southwest, which are separated by the Hindu Kush mountain range. The population tends to cluster in the foothills and periphery of the Hindu Kush range, with smaller groups found in the country's interior valleys. The east is more densely settled, while the south is sparsely populated.

Around 74% of Afghans live in rural areas, with about 10% of the population living in the capital city, Kabul. The second-largest city is Kandahar, with less than 400,000 people. The country's population is expected to reach 82 million by 2050 and will continue to grow steadily until it reaches its peak population of 77.03 million in 2084. After that, it will slowly begin to decline.

Muslims account for 99% of the population of Afghanistan, with between 80% and 89% practising Sunni Islam, while 10-19% are Shia. The country has a diverse range of ethnic groups, with the largest being Pashtun (42%), followed by Tajik (27%), Hazara (9%), and Uzbek (9%).

Population distribution and density

Afghanistan's population distribution is characterised by clusters of people in the foothills and periphery of the rugged Hindu Kush mountain range, with smaller groups in the interior valleys. The east of the country is more densely settled, while the south is sparsely populated.

Afghanistan's population density is 65 people per square kilometre or 168 people per square mile. The country's total land area is 652,860 square kilometres or 252,071 square miles.

The population is not evenly distributed across urban and rural areas. Approximately 74% of Afghans live in rural areas, with the remaining 26% living in urban areas. The only city with a population of over a million residents is the capital, Kabul, where around 10% of the population lives. The second-largest city is Kandahar, with fewer than 400,000 people.

The population is also unevenly distributed across different age groups. Approximately 46% of the population is under 15 years of age, with a median age of 17 or 18 years.

Urbanisation and rural-urban divide

Afghanistan's population is largely rural, with 74% of Afghans living outside of urban areas. However, the country is undergoing a rapid urban transition, with its urban population growing at 5% annually, more than twice the regional average. This is largely due to the return of over 5 million expats.

The urban-rural divide in Afghanistan is not as clear-cut as it may seem. While rural areas are generally more conservative and traditional, with higher levels of poverty, urban areas are more liberal, with higher disposable incomes. However, this divide is not absolute, and there are shades of grey within both rural and urban areas. For example, Kabul, the heart of progressive Afghanistan, also has those who oppose women's shelters and education for girls.

Historically, Afghanistan has been struggling with inequality and a dangerous rural-urban divide, which has contributed to successive regime changes. The urban elites reside in the city centres, often oblivious to the conditions in rural Afghanistan, which has widened the inequality gap in the country. This divide has also been exacerbated by the flow of foreign aid money and military contracts, which have created a wealthy urban elite.

To address these issues, the Afghan government introduced the Urban National Priority Program (U-NPP) in 2016, which aims to support municipal governance, improve access to basic services, and promote vibrant urban economies. The World Bank has also deepened its engagement in the country's urban sector, focusing on improving the capacity and resources available to municipal governments.

Languages and literacy

Afghanistan has a diverse range of languages and ethnic groups, with Islam being the dominant religion. Over 99% of the population is Muslim, with approximately 80-85% following the Sunni branch. The country has two official languages: Dari and Pashto. The history of these languages and their paths to becoming official are highlighted in the Central Asia Journal, which also addresses the historical and cultural conflicts and competition between the two languages. The Dari/Pashto Phrasebook was developed by the Center for Languages of the Central Asian Region at Indiana University Bloomington for people assisting Afghan immigrants in the United States.

Afghanistan has a 6-3-3 formal education structure, with primary school starting at age seven and lasting for six grades. Secondary school is divided into two cycles: lower secondary consists of grades 7-9, and upper secondary consists of grades 10-12. Despite improvements in the education system over the years, Afghanistan still faces significant challenges. The nation requires more schools and teachers, and issues such as poverty, lack of qualified female teachers in rural areas, and substandard school facilities contribute to low enrollment rates.

The literacy rate in Afghanistan is very low compared to other countries. In 2021, the adult literacy rate was 37.27%, with a significant gap between males and females. The male literacy rate was 52.06%, while the female literacy rate was only 22.6%. This disparity is even more pronounced in the younger population, with youth literacy rates of 61.9% for males and 29.9% for females aged 15-24. Efforts to improve literacy rates and promote gender equality in education have been made, but the recent political developments and the Taliban's restrictions on girls' and women's education have hindered progress.

The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) are working to raise literacy levels in Afghanistan. They have established projects such as Land Afghan, which focuses on curriculum development and community learning centers. Despite these efforts, the escalation of conflict and the impact of the Taliban's policies on girls' and women's education have created a dire situation that may further constrain improvements in literacy rates.

Religion and religious freedom

Afghanistan is an Islamic country, with 99% of the population practising Islam. The majority of these are Sunni Muslims (80-89%), with the remaining 10-19% being Shia Muslims. There are also very small numbers of other religious groups, including Sikhs, Hindus, Baháʼís, Christians, Buddhists, and Zoroastrians.

The country's constitution protects the religious freedom of religious minorities, stating that 'followers of other religions are free to exercise their faith and perform their religious rites within the limits of the provisions of the law'. However, in practice, religious freedom is severely restricted.

Since the Taliban takeover in 2021, the country's religious minorities have faced increased persecution and violence. The Taliban's strict interpretation of Sharia law has resulted in the effective ban of girls' secondary education, the mandatory covering of women's bodies and faces in public, and the prohibition of women travelling or working without a male chaperone. The Taliban has also banned various activities for men and women, including appearing in public together or going to parks and restaurants.

The Taliban has also failed to protect religious minorities from attacks by rival extremist groups, such as the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP). The ISKP has carried out multiple deadly attacks on the Shi'a Hazara community, an ethnic minority that the Taliban and ISKP consider infidels. The Hazara have faced discrimination and abuse by successive Afghan governments for over a century.

The indigenous Hindu and Sikh communities are also at risk of disappearing due to discrimination, persecution, and violence. They often experience interference by local authorities in their religious rituals, such as cremation, and illegal appropriation of their property.

Christians, Baháʼís, and atheists are also at risk of persecution and violence in Afghanistan. They are forced to practise their faiths in secret due to fear of reprisal from the Taliban and other extremist groups.

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