The Elusive Exit: Examining The Complexities Of Leaving Afghanistan

The United States completed its withdrawal from Afghanistan on 30 August 2021, marking the end of the 20-year war. The war in Afghanistan was America's longest war and cost thousands of lives. The US withdrawal has drawn criticism for the way it was handled, with the Taliban taking over the country much faster than expected. This created conditions that left the US scrambling to get out.

The US military evacuation of Kabul airport saw more than 120,000 people airlifted from the country. Now, the task of evacuating Afghan allies falls to non-governmental organisations and international aid groups.

What happens to the Americans still in Afghanistan?

In his speech on 31 August 2021, President Biden said that there were about 100 to 200 Americans who remained in Afghanistan. Most of them were dual citizens who initially decided to stay because of their family roots in the country. He added that there was no deadline for their evacuation and that the US remained committed to getting them out if they wanted to leave.

In the days leading up to the final withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the US government had estimated that there were 6,000 Americans in the country. By 14 August, 4,500 of them had been evacuated, along with their family members.

The evacuation of Americans from Afghanistan is now a diplomatic mission handled by the State Department. The US government is working with international partners to pressure the Taliban to ensure safe passage for those who want to leave.

What happens to Afghan refugees and visa holders?

Afghan refugees and visa holders have been facing a challenging situation since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. The U.S. government has been working to evacuate and resettle Afghan nationals who worked with the U.S. government, media organizations, and non-governmental organizations.

The U.S. Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP) has been processing Afghan refugees through the Priority-2 (P-2) and Priority-1 (P-1) programs. The P-2 program is for Afghans who worked with the U.S. government and its affiliates but do not meet the minimum time-in-service requirements for a Special Immigrant Visa (SIV). The P-1 program is for individual cases referred by designated entities based on their circumstances or apparent need for resettlement.

Afghans seeking refugee status must demonstrate that they were persecuted or have a well-founded fear of persecution due to their race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a particular social group. They must also meet other eligibility requirements, including security vetting and medical clearances.

The U.S. government has also launched Operation Allies Welcome (now Enduring Welcome) to reunify Afghans in the U.S. with their family members overseas. This operation includes Afghan Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) holders, refugees, and certain parolees, who receive initial resettlement assistance from resettlement agencies and community groups.

Afghans arriving as refugees and SIV holders receive assistance through the Reception and Placement Program, which helps them rebuild their lives in the U.S. by providing basic necessities, cultural orientation, enrollment in school, English language training, health care, and other benefits.

However, the situation for Afghans in neighboring host countries has been challenging due to worsening economic conditions, reduced livelihood opportunities, and natural disasters. Over 1.6 million Afghans have arrived in neighboring countries since 2021, and Iran has become the second-largest refugee-hosting country in the world.

The U.S. government is committed to supporting Afghans at risk and has expanded its resettlement agency network to provide initial resettlement assistance to newly arriving Afghans.

What does the exit mean for Biden's approach to the world?

The exit from Afghanistan has raised questions about President Biden's approach to the world. While Biden has decades of experience in foreign policy, the withdrawal from Afghanistan is his first major foreign policy crisis as president.

Biden's foreign policy is rooted in his years of firsthand experience as chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as vice president. During the 2020 presidential campaign, he often said that he had met every major world leader of the past few decades. As president, he brought in a foreign policy team with years of diplomatic experience. Biden's foreign policy is based on personal relationships, according to experts.

Biden's mind is on China, and he speaks about the most important global struggle as a battle between autocracies and democracies. Biden is laser-focused on China and is focused on creating a "foreign policy for the middle class" with a greater focus on how actions abroad will affect Americans at home, especially economically.

Biden's team often refers to the idea of creating a "foreign policy for the middle class" with a greater focus on how actions abroad will affect Americans at home, especially economically. Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told NPR in December 2021 that the Obama administration "did not elevate and center middle-class concerns in our foreign policy." Sullivan saw that disconnect as part of the reason for Hillary Clinton's 2016 loss to Trump and his "America First" nationalism.

Biden's foreign policy as president is also focused on strengthening American leadership within international institutions and joining fellow allies and partners in strengthening shared values worldwide.

In terms of military intervention, Biden supported military intervention on humanitarian grounds in the Balkans in the 1990s and initially supported both the war in Iraq and the war in Afghanistan. However, Biden's mind seems to be on managing the world, not transforming or redeeming it. Biden's administration has moved decisively on several fronts promised during the campaign and spelled out in the interim guidance: resuming negotiations with Iran, rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement, and expressing the President's outspoken support of NATO.

Biden's approach to the world is also characterized by his desire to rebuild alliances and his belief that the United States can achieve more when working together with partner nations.

Will the exit affect Biden politically long-term?

The exit from Afghanistan has undoubtedly affected Biden politically, at least in the short term. The chaotic nature of the withdrawal put a dent in the aura of competence that Biden has tried to build. There will be congressional investigations, likely at a time when Biden would rather be talking about domestic legislation like his bipartisan infrastructure bill.

However, it is unlikely that the exit from Afghanistan will affect Biden politically in the long term. Ultimately, challenges like whether the coronavirus pandemic gets under control and the economy continues to strengthen are likely going to be the most critical factors in Biden's long-term success or failure.

Biden's approval rating took a hit due to the way the evacuation played out, but it is doubtful that it will have a decisive electoral impact. The effective handling of the Russian attack on Ukraine will ultimately outweigh the criticism he received on Afghanistan.

What is the impact on counterterrorism efforts?

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has had a significant impact on counterterrorism efforts. With the Taliban back in power, the country has become a safe haven for terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS-K). These groups have been able to regroup, re-establish training camps, and plot attacks against the US and its allies. The Taliban's close links with terrorist organizations and inability to control law and order outside major cities have further exacerbated the problem.

The US now faces the challenge of conducting counterterrorism operations without a partner force on the ground and with limited intelligence capabilities and access to the region. An "over-the-horizon" counterterrorism strategy relying on aerial platforms and satellites for intelligence collection and strike missions is an option, but it has limitations due to the distance from US bases and the lack of local partners.

To address the evolving terrorist threat, the US has a few options:

• Work with the Taliban against some terrorist groups, particularly ISIS-K, by providing economic and humanitarian assistance or intelligence in return for their cooperation. However, this approach is risky as the Taliban has close ties with several terrorist groups and may not be able to effectively counter them.
• Conduct a robust "over-the-horizon" counterterrorism campaign to monitor and strike terrorist targets. This option requires improving intelligence capabilities and negotiating access to bases in the region.
• Work with local forces inside and outside Afghanistan to rebuild the US intelligence architecture and conduct counterterrorism operations. This approach leverages historical relationships with local Afghan forces and does not require a permanent US presence on the ground.
• Improve the counterterrorism relationship with Pakistan by offering security assistance and intelligence to reduce the threat of terrorist groups and obtain access to Pakistani airspace and resources.
• Prepare contingency plans and enhance intelligence capabilities to handle terrorist attacks, particularly those targeting major allies and partners such as India.

The US recognizes the need to adapt its counterterrorism strategy to address the evolving threat landscape, but the effectiveness of these options depends on various factors, including the level of cooperation from regional partners and the ability to gather timely and accurate intelligence.

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