The Complex Web Of Influence: Unraveling Afghanistan's Story

Afghanistan has had a tumultuous history of foreign relations, with the country being invaded by the Soviet Union in 1979 and the United States in 2001. The country has also been involved in several wars with the United Kingdom, and has been occupied by the Taliban.

Afghanistan's foreign relations have been in a state of flux since the fall of Kabul to the Taliban in 2021, with no country recognising the new regime. The country's foreign relations were previously handled by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which was headed by Mohammad Hanif Atmar.

Afghanistan has had diplomatic relations with many countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Russia, India, Pakistan, and many more. The country has also been a member of several international organisations, including the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank.

The influence of foreign powers on Afghanistan

Foreign powers have had a significant influence on Afghanistan. The country has been invaded by the United States, the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom. The United States established diplomatic ties with Afghanistan in 1935 and the two countries signed the Doha Agreement in 2020, which led to the withdrawal of U.S. and Allied forces from Afghanistan.

The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and occupied the country until 1989. The United Kingdom has also invaded Afghanistan multiple times, with the most recent invasion taking place in 2001.

Afghanistan has also had diplomatic relations with many other countries, including China, India, Pakistan, and Turkey.

The role of the Taliban in Afghanistan

The Taliban is a Sunni Islamist nationalist and pro-Pashtun movement founded in the early 1990s that ruled most of Afghanistan from 1996 until 2001. The Taliban emerged in September 1994 as one of the prominent factions in the Afghan Civil War and largely consisted of students from the Pashtun areas of eastern and southern Afghanistan who had been educated in traditional Islamic schools. The Taliban found a foothold and consolidated their strength in southern Afghanistan.

The Taliban's first move after capturing Kabul was to institute a strict interpretation of Qur'anic instruction and jurisprudence. In practice, this meant often merciless policies on the treatment of women, political opponents of any type, and religious minorities. The Taliban enforced a strict interpretation of Sharia, or Islamic law, and were widely condemned for massacres against Afghan civilians, harsh discrimination against religious and ethnic minorities, denial of UN food supplies to starving civilians, destruction of cultural monuments, banning women from school and most employment, and prohibition of most music.

The Taliban was removed from power in 2001 by US-led forces. After being overthrown, the Taliban launched an insurgency to fight the US-backed Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in the War in Afghanistan. In 2002, exiled members formed the Council of Leaders (Rahbari Shura) based in the city of Quetta in Pakistan. Under Hibatullah Akhundzada's leadership, in May 2021, the Taliban launched a military offensive, that culminated in the Fall of Kabul on 15 August 2021 and the Taliban regaining control of Afghanistan.

The Taliban's government has been internationally condemned for restricting human rights in Afghanistan, including the right of women and girls to work and to have an education. The Taliban's ideology is considered a shift from traditional Islamist views held by anti-Soviet mujahideen fighters in the 1980s and early 1990s. It can be characterized as a combination of strict anti-modern Pashtun tribal ideology mixed with radicalized Deobandi interpretations of Islam.

The impact of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has had a significant impact on the country and the region, with consequences that are still unfolding. Here are some key effects of the US withdrawal:

Rise of the Taliban:

The withdrawal of US and NATO forces led to the Taliban's swift takeover of Afghanistan, filling the power vacuum left by the departing troops. This has raised concerns about the protection of human rights, particularly for women and girls, who faced severe repression during the previous Taliban regime. The Taliban's victory has also endangered the gains made in economic development and the realisation of civil and political rights over the past two decades.

Security Threats and Extremism:

The US withdrawal has created a security vacuum that risks being exploited by terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. The Taliban's links to these groups and their history of providing safe havens raise concerns about Afghanistan once again becoming a base for terrorist attacks against the US and its allies. The instability and lack of governance create an environment conducive to the growth of violent extremism and proxy wars, with regional powers vying for influence.

Refugee Crisis:

The deteriorating security situation and fear of Taliban rule have triggered a new wave of Afghan migration, particularly among highly skilled individuals. Neighbouring countries are bracing for a flood of refugees and are concerned about the potential spillover of militancy and drug trafficking across their borders.

Geopolitical Shifts:

The US withdrawal has altered the geopolitical dynamics in the region. Pakistan, a long-time supporter of the Taliban, views their victory as a win for themselves. China, Russia, and Iran are cautiously assessing the situation, seeking to protect their interests and potentially build closer relationships with the Taliban. Meanwhile, India worries about the security threats posed by a Pakistan-backed Taliban and the potential for renewed conflict and instability in the region.

Damage to US Reputation and Alliances:

The chaotic nature of the US withdrawal has damaged America's reputation and strained its relationships with NATO allies. Allies like the UK feel a sense of betrayal and humiliation, while European allies question the reliability of US security commitments. The withdrawal also places pressure on NATO and raises questions about its aims and legitimacy in the post-Cold War era.

Humanitarian Crisis:

The combination of political instability, economic collapse, and potential sanctions following the Taliban's takeover has created a dire humanitarian situation for the Afghan people. Basic services and economic support, previously provided by foreign funding, are now at risk, exacerbating the challenges faced by Afghans.

The consequences of the Afghanistan conflict on the region

Humanitarian Crisis and Displacement:

The conflict in Afghanistan has resulted in a massive humanitarian crisis, with Afghans suffering from food shortages, malnutrition, lack of access to healthcare, and poor sanitation. According to the United Nations, Afghanistan faces the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. As of August 2022, about 95% of Afghan households did not have enough food, and more than 3.5 million children required nutrition support. The conflict has also led to significant displacement, with 2.6 million Afghans remaining refugees and another 4 million internally displaced as of 2021.

Reversal of Human Rights and Democratic Freedoms:

With the Taliban's return to power, Afghanistan has witnessed a rollback of human rights and democratic freedoms, especially for women and girls. Girls have been barred from secondary schools, and women are required to have a male chaperone when travelling and to cover their faces in public. There have also been reports of public floggings and executions, further instilling fear and restricting individual freedoms.

Economic Collapse and International Isolation:

Afghanistan's economy is on the brink of collapse due to sanctions, termination of development aid, and the freezing of assets by the US. The country faces a banking crisis, skyrocketing inflation, and a lack of external assistance due to the West's reluctance to work with the Taliban. This has led to a shortage of basic necessities and further exacerbated the humanitarian crisis.

Regional Instability and Competition for Influence:

The conflict has contributed to regional instability, with Pakistan, India, Iran, and Russia likely to compete for influence in Kabul and with subnational actors. The Taliban's takeover could turn Afghanistan into a terrorist safe haven, as the group is believed to maintain ties with Al-Qaeda, threatening the security of neighbouring countries.

Increase in Terrorist Activity:

The Islamic State in Khorasan (ISIS-K) has expanded its presence in Afghanistan and targeted civilians with suicide attacks. The group was responsible for the deadly attacks on the Kabul airport in August 2021, which killed over 160 Afghans and 13 US troops. The presence of ISIS-K and other terrorist groups poses a significant threat to the region's stability.

Environmental Impact:

Climate change has exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, with extreme weather events destroying crops and arable land. The country is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and the lack of resources and infrastructure makes adaptation challenging.

The future of Afghanistan's relations with the international community

The United States, a key player in Afghanistan's international relations, has shifted to a position of pragmatic engagement after the withdrawal of its forces in 2021. While the US has not recognized the Taliban, it leads international efforts to provide humanitarian aid and prevent an economic collapse without benefiting the Taliban. The US also engages with the Taliban to ensure they abide by their commitments under the Doha Agreement, including counter-terrorism efforts.

Afghanistan's neighbors, such as Pakistan, Iran, and China, have varying interests and strategies regarding the country. Pakistan, for example, has historically sought to use Afghanistan as a strategic depth in its tense relations with India, while Iran opposes the Taliban and supports the Northern Alliance. China has also contacted Taliban representatives but has not formally recognized the regime.

The international community's approach to Afghanistan is focused on providing humanitarian and economic support while navigating complex political and security challenges. The World Bank, for instance, has adopted a "principled approach" that aims to support basic services, particularly for women and girls, without providing funds directly to the Taliban.

To foster stability and prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for terrorist groups, the international community, especially neighboring states, will need to play a constructive role. This includes addressing the country's economic challenges, promoting power-sharing and decentralization, and supporting the protection of human rights, especially for women and girls. However, the future of Afghanistan's relations with the world remains uncertain, and the country's path depends on the Taliban's engagement and willingness to address the concerns of the international community.

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