The Complex Reality Of Taliban Support In Afghanistan

The Taliban, an Islamic fundamentalist group, returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021 after being removed from power by a US-led military coalition in 2001. The Taliban's harsh rule has seen a crackdown on women's rights, a struggling economy, and a neglect of basic services. The group has also been accused of a range of human rights abuses, including killing opponents and detaining journalists. While the Taliban initially enjoyed support from Afghans due to their success in stamping out corruption and curbing lawlessness, public opinion has since shifted. A 2019 survey found that only 13.4% of Afghans sympathized with the Taliban, while an overwhelming majority prioritized the protection of women's rights, freedom of speech, and the constitution. The future for Afghans living under Taliban rule remains uncertain, with millions struggling to survive.

The Taliban's harsh rule and human rights violations

Since retaking control of Afghanistan in 2021, the Taliban have imposed a series of rules and policies that violate a wide range of fundamental human rights. These include freedom of movement, the right to work and earn a livelihood, and access to education and healthcare.

Women and girls have been particularly affected by the Taliban's oppressive regime. They have been banned from most paid work and blocked from attending secondary school and university. Women have also been prohibited from travelling or leaving their homes without a male chaperone and have been ordered to cover their faces in public.

The Taliban have also committed a range of violent abuses, including arbitrary detentions, torture, and summary executions of former security officers, critics, and perceived enemies. They have further suppressed freedom of expression, targeting human rights defenders, civil society activists, and journalists.

The Taliban have also persecuted ethnic and religious minorities, forcibly evicting non-Pashtun Afghans from their homes and farms. They have further carried out revenge killings and enforced disappearances of former government officials and security force personnel.

The Taliban's harsh rule has led to a devastating humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, with millions suffering from acute malnutrition and a lack of access to healthcare and other essential services.

The Taliban's impact on women's rights

During their first rule from 1996 to 2001, the Taliban became internationally notorious for their misogyny and violence against women. They mandated that women wear the burqa at all times in public and were not allowed to work or receive an education past the age of eight. Women were not allowed to leave the house without a male chaperone and were banned from accessing healthcare delivered by men, as women were forbidden from working in the healthcare sector. They also faced public flogging and execution for violations of the Taliban's laws.

Since retaking power, the Taliban have once again imposed severe restrictions on women's rights. Girls have been banned from attending secondary school and women have been prevented from working in most sectors outside of health and education. Women have also been ordered to wear face coverings in public and are barred from travelling more than 45 miles without a close male relative. The Taliban have also shut down beauty salons and prohibited women from entering gyms and parks. In December 2022, the Taliban banned women from working in non-government organisations and attending universities.

The impact of these restrictions has been devastating for Afghan women and girls. Many have been erased from public and social life, with their hard-fought gains in equality and human rights steadily dismantled. Women who have spoken out against these restrictions have faced violence, arbitrary detention, and even death. The Taliban's treatment of women may amount to gender apartheid, according to the United Nations.

The situation is particularly dire for women in rural areas, where an estimated 76% of the country's women live. They experience the devastation of bloody and intensifying fighting between the Taliban and government forces and local militias. Loss of male family members to the fighting jeopardises their economic survival and ability to go about everyday life.

Despite the Taliban's claims to have become less strict, their actions indicate otherwise. Hardliners within the movement appear to have the upper hand on issues related to female employment, freedom of speech, and secondary education for girls. As a result, desperately needed foreign-held funds are unlikely to be released, further exacerbating the economic crisis in Afghanistan.

The Taliban's relationship with al-Qaeda

The Taliban and al-Qaeda have a long history of close ties. The Taliban is an Islamic fundamentalist group that emerged in the early 1990s in northern Pakistan following the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan. The group was founded by Mullah Mohammad Omar, a one-eyed Islamic cleric who became a mujahideen commander during the war against the Soviet-backed regime in the 1980s.

Al-Qaeda, on the other hand, is a transnational terrorist organization founded by Osama bin Laden in the late 1980s. The group has been responsible for numerous terrorist attacks, including the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center in 2001.

The relationship between the Taliban and al-Qaeda dates back to the 1990s when al-Qaeda provided material and manpower assistance to the Taliban as it waged a civil war against the Northern Alliance. In return, the Taliban provided sanctuary to al-Qaeda, allowing them to operate from Afghanistan.

The Taliban and al-Qaeda's relationship was severely strained following the September 11 attacks, which led to a US-led invasion of Afghanistan and the overthrow of the Taliban regime. Despite this, the two groups have maintained close ties, and analysts are concerned that the Taliban could provide safe haven for al-Qaeda, allowing them to launch international terrorist attacks.

In recent years, the Taliban has attempted to distance itself from al-Qaeda, pledging to prevent the group from operating in areas under their control. However, there are doubts about the Taliban's commitment to these pledges, and the two groups are believed to remain closely linked. The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in 2021 has raised concerns about the potential for al-Qaeda to regain a foothold in the country and launch international terrorist attacks.

The Taliban's economic impact on Afghanistan

The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan has had a devastating impact on the country's economy, causing widespread hardship and suffering among the population. Here is an analysis of the economic consequences of the Taliban's rule in Afghanistan:

Immediate Economic Fallout

The Taliban's return to power in August 2021 triggered a sharp economic contraction and disruption to international aid. The loss of access to the international banking system and foreign exchange reserves, as well as the abrupt cutoff of civilian and security aid, dealt a severe blow to the economy. The Afghan currency plummeted, investment confidence declined, and skilled Afghans fled the country en masse. The economy suffered from a combination of factors, including severe drought, the COVID-19 pandemic, declining confidence in the previous government, and the impact of the US and other foreign troops' withdrawal.

Humanitarian Crisis

The economic collapse has led to a deepening humanitarian crisis, with acute malnutrition and food insecurity affecting a vast majority of the population. Families have lost wages, and children have been forced into labour markets. The healthcare system has collapsed, severely impacting maternal and infant health, particularly for women and girls. The World Bank estimates that the proportion of households unable to meet basic food needs more than doubled from 16% to 36% between 2021 and 2022.

Impact on Women

The Taliban's restrictions on women's education and employment have had devastating consequences. Women, who already faced greater obstacles in accessing resources, have been disproportionately affected by the economic crisis. Taliban policies barring women from most paid jobs have left households without a source of income, as women were often the sole or main earners. The World Food Program survey revealed that nearly 100% of female-headed households faced insufficient food consumption, and 85% were taking drastic measures to obtain food.

GDP Contraction

Afghanistan's GDP contracted by 20.7% in 2021 and a further 6.2% in 2022. The economy continues to struggle, with unemployment remaining high and the banking sector facing dysfunction due to constraints on international transfers and liquidity issues. The World Bank predicts that Afghanistan's economic outlook remains uncertain, with the threat of stagnation looming until at least 2025.

Efforts to Revive the Economy

The Taliban have taken some steps to address the economic crisis. They have focused on increasing government revenue through customs management and tax collection, fighting corruption, and controlling foreign exchange rates. The World Bank report for 2023 noted positive signs of inflationary decreases, currency stability, and improved cash flow management. Additionally, the Taliban have implemented infrastructure projects, such as the production of solar electricity in Kabul and other energy initiatives. However, the lack of international recognition, political instability, and restrictive policies towards women continue to hinder economic growth and development.

The Taliban's relationship with Pakistan

Historical Context

Pakistan has a long history of supporting the Taliban, dating back to the early days of the group's formation. After the Taliban's initial rise to power in the 1990s, Pakistan continued to provide support, including soliciting funding, bankrolling operations, providing diplomatic backing, arranging training for fighters, and facilitating shipments of ammunition. Pakistan's intelligence services, particularly the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI), played a significant role in bolstering the Taliban's military capabilities. The porous border between the two countries facilitated the movement of fighters and resources. Additionally, private actors in Pakistan, including trucking cartels and arms traders, also contributed to the Taliban's strength.

Changing Dynamics

However, since the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in 2021, the relationship between the two has become more strained. One significant source of tension is the presence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, which seeks to establish a Taliban-style regime in Pakistan and has carried out numerous attacks within the country. Pakistan has accused the Afghan Taliban of providing safe havens for the TTP and failing to restrain their activities. This has led to a series of Pakistani airstrikes targeting suspected TTP locations in Afghanistan, which resulted in civilian casualties and heightened tensions between the two countries.

Another factor contributing to the changing dynamics is the Taliban's ideological alignment with the TTP and other jihadist groups. The Taliban's commitment to implementing a strict interpretation of Sharia law and their refusal to compromise on certain issues have created challenges for Pakistan, particularly in light of growing Islamist radicalization within Pakistan itself. Additionally, the Taliban's military victory in Afghanistan has inspired similar movements in Pakistan, further complicating the relationship.

Future Prospects

The future of the Taliban-Pakistan relationship remains uncertain. Pakistan has expressed concerns about the Taliban's failure to act against the TTP and has called for practical progress in preventing global terrorist groups from threatening Pakistan. At the same time, Pakistan's influence over the Taliban may be waning as the Taliban seek to balance their relationships with other regional powers, such as Russia, China, and Qatar. The Taliban's refusal to be seen as Islamabad's puppet has further strained ties.

Pakistan's response to the evolving situation remains to be seen. While there are calls for a more coercive approach, others argue for a more nuanced strategy that acknowledges the complex dynamics at play. The deteriorating relationship has important implications for regional security and the fight against terrorism, particularly given the presence of other extremist groups such as ISIS-Khorasan Province (ISKP) and al-Qaeda.

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